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Azzi Fudd in blowouts

30 of 30 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
14 of these · baseline 16NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (12.6 pts) against in closer games (13.5), -0.9, t = -0.40, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
12.6
13.5
−0.9
t −0.40 · resolves ±4.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
2.1
−0.8
t −1.75 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.6
2.1
−0.5
t −1.04 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
2.1
2.1
0.0
t +0.02 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.7
1.8
0.0
t −0.07 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.9
0.8
0.0
t +0.11 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
1.4
−0.7
t −1.79 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
15.5
17.7
−2.2
t −0.85 · resolves ±5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
13.9
15.6
−1.7
t −0.73 · resolves ±4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
14.2
15.6
−1.3
t −0.57 · resolves ±4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.9
4.2
−1.3
t −1.65 · resolves ±1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
2.6
2.6
0.0
t +0.01 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 185 (this player's own top tercile)
10 of these · baseline 20NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (12.9 pts) against other games (13.2), -0.3, t = -0.13, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
12.9
13.2
−0.3
t −0.13 · resolves ±4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.9
−0.4
t −0.62 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.9
1.8
+0.1
t +0.23 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
2.1
2.1
+0.1
t +0.11 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.6
1.8
−0.2
t −0.40 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.6
1.0
−0.4
t −0.76 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.1
1.1
0.0
t 0.00 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
16.3
16.9
−0.6
t −0.20 · resolves ±5.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
14.4
15.1
−0.7
t −0.26 · resolves ±5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
14.8
15.0
−0.2
t −0.08 · resolves ±4.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.4
3.7
−0.3
t −0.31 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
2.2
2.8
−0.5
t −0.90 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 165 (this player's own bottom tercile)
11 of these · baseline 19NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (14.0 pts) against other games (12.6), +1.4, t = 0.68, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
14.0
12.6
+1.4
t +0.68 · resolves ±4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.8
−0.3
t −0.61 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.7
1.9
−0.2
t −0.33 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.9
2.2
−0.2
t −0.41 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.5
1.8
−0.3
t −0.62 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
1.1
0.7
+0.4
t +0.97 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
1.3
−0.4
t −1.11 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
17.3
16.3
+1.0
t +0.37 · resolves ±5.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
15.5
14.4
+1.1
t +0.49 · resolves ±4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
15.7
14.5
+1.3
t +0.53 · resolves ±4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.3
3.7
−0.5
t −0.55 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
2.6
2.5
+0.1
t +0.19 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 30 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 13.5
2026-08-05
WAS
AWAY
34.5MIN
9POINTS
1 · 3 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
46.1
USG%
17.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
-10
PRA
13
2026-08-02
CON
HOME
24.4MIN
12POINTS
2 · 1 · 4-8
BELOW
FG
4-8
3PT
4-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
14.8
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+22
PRA
15
2026-07-31
WAS
AWAY
32.8MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-11
BELOW
FG
3-11
3PT
2-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
36.4
USG%
17.9
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
9
2026-07-29
ATL
HOME
37.1MIN
20POINTS
3 · 2 · 9-13
ABOVE
FG
9-13
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
76.9
USG%
17.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
25
2026-07-22
POR
AWAY
32.6MIN
11POINTS
0 · 2 · 4-10
BELOW
FG
4-10
3PT
3-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
55.0
USG%
16.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2026-07-20
NYL
HOME
42.7MIN
15POINTS
1 · 2 · 6-13
ABOVE
FG
6-13
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
57.7
USG%
16.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
18
2026-07-19
LAS
HOME
32.6MIN
11POINTS
4 · 2 · 4-10
BELOW
FG
4-10
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
55.0
USG%
13.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+6
PRA
17
2026-07-12
CHI
HOME
34.6MIN
16POINTS
1 · 3 · 5-14
ABOVE
FG
5-14
3PT
3-8
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
52.2
USG%
20.0
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
20
2026-07-10
TOR
AWAY
36.4MIN
13POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-13
BELOW
FG
5-13
3PT
3-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
16.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+16
PRA
17
2026-07-07
NYL
AWAY
34.3MIN
12POINTS
0 · 3 · 6-13
BELOW
FG
6-13
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
46.2
USG%
16.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
15
2026-07-05
TOR
AWAY
30.0MIN
17POINTS
3 · 2 · 6-16
ABOVE
FG
6-16
3PT
5-11
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
51.7
USG%
23.8
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+22
PRA
22
2026-07-02
CON
AWAY
31.9MIN
4POINTS
4 · 5 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
28.6
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
13
2026-06-28
MIN
HOME
37.6MIN
21POINTS
1 · 3 · 8-23
ABOVE
FG
8-23
3PT
4-9
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
44.8
USG%
28.3
STL
4
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-2
PRA
25
2026-06-25
LVA
AWAY
32.3MIN
7POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
38.9
USG%
13.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-20
PRA
9
2026-06-22
SEA
AWAY
42.3MIN
26POINTS
3 · 2 · 11-17
ABOVE
FG
11-17
3PT
2-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
72.7
USG%
19.9
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
31
2026-06-20
CHI
HOME
33.7MIN
13POINTS
5 · 2 · 5-13
BELOW
FG
5-13
3PT
2-6
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
48.4
USG%
19.3
STL
1
BLK
4
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+5
PRA
20
2026-06-17
GSV
AWAY
37.4MIN
10POINTS
1 · 1 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
2-5
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
36.0
USG%
20.1
STL
5
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-14
PRA
12
2026-06-15
LVA
HOME
28.0MIN
19POINTS
0 · 1 · 8-9
ABOVE
FG
8-9
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
96.2
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+22
PRA
20
2026-06-13
POR
AWAY
31.7MIN
18POINTS
4 · 3 · 7-17
ABOVE
FG
7-17
3PT
3-8
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
51.6
USG%
24.4
STL
2
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
25
2026-06-11
PHO
HOME
34.3MIN
17POINTS
3 · 4 · 7-13
ABOVE
FG
7-13
3PT
1-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
61.2
USG%
20.5
STL
1
BLK
3
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+21
PRA
24
2026-06-09
MIN
AWAY
30.0MIN
6POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-12
BELOW
FG
2-12
3PT
2-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
20.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
6
2026-06-05
LAS
AWAY
34.8MIN
11POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-10
BELOW
FG
5-10
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
55.0
USG%
11.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+5
PRA
14
2026-06-01
SEA
HOME
23.5MIN
9POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
64.3
USG%
12.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+15
PRA
10
2026-05-28
LVA
HOME
37.7MIN
22POINTS
3 · 2 · 9-15
ABOVE
FG
9-15
3PT
3-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
69.3
USG%
19.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+15
PRA
27
2026-05-24
NYL
AWAY
32.0MIN
24POINTS
2 · 3 · 9-15
ABOVE
FG
9-15
3PT
6-12
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
80.0
USG%
24.6
STL
3
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+22
PRA
29
2026-05-22
ATL
AWAY
21.0MIN
7POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
38.9
USG%
18.4
STL
1
BLK
3
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
8
2026-05-20
CHI
AWAY
28.0MIN
12POINTS
0 · 1 · 4-6
BELOW
FG
4-6
3PT
2-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
87.2
USG%
12.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
13
2026-05-18
WAS
HOME
24.4MIN
12POINTS
2 · 3 · 6-9
BELOW
FG
6-9
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
19.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+20
PRA
17
2026-05-14
MIN
HOME
19.9MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
57.1
USG%
20.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+8
PRA
9
2026-05-09
IND
AWAY
17.5MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
5.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden