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Gabriela Jaquez in blowouts

39 of 39 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
15 of these · baseline 24 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (8.9 pts) against in closer games (6.0), +2.8, t = 1.67, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.3). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.9
6.0
+2.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
3.4
2.7
+0.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.5
0.9
+0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
13.3
9.6
+3.7
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
12.3
8.8
+3.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
9.9
6.9
+3.0
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.4
3.5
+0.9
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.8
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
2.4
2.2
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
7.7
4.9
+2.8
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
MEASURED
field goals made
3.3
2.3
+1.0
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
2.0
1.5
+0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.7
1.1
+0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.8
1.3
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.3
1.5
+0.7
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 187 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (9.0 pts) against other games (6.2), +2.8, t = 1.49, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
9.0
6.2
+2.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.8
3.0
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.2
0.7
+0.5
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.5
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.1
1.2
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
13.1
10.0
+3.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
11.8
9.2
+2.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
10.2
6.9
+3.3
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.1
3.8
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
2.2
2.3
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
7.2
5.4
+1.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
3.3
2.3
+1.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
2.1
1.5
+0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.8
1.1
+0.7
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.6
1.4
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.1
1.7
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 174 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 25 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (5.9 pts) against other games (7.8), -1.9, t = -1.02, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.9
7.8
−1.9
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.8
3.1
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.6
0.9
+0.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
9.3
12.0
−2.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
8.7
10.9
−2.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.5
8.9
−2.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.4
4.2
−0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
2.1
2.4
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.5
6.3
−0.8
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.1
3.0
−0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.6
1.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
1.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.9
1.3
+0.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.9
1.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 39 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 6.0
2026-09-24
WAS
AWAY
20.8MIN
8POINTS
4 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
50.8
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-18
PRA
14
2026-09-22
TOR
HOME
22.1MIN
18POINTS
3 · 2 · 8-10
ABOVE
FG
8-10
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
90.0
USG%
22.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+17
PRA
23
2026-09-19
ATL
AWAY
30.9MIN
14POINTS
3 · 1 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
58.9
USG%
22.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
18
2026-09-17
WAS
HOME
24.0MIN
10POINTS
3 · 0 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
0-3
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
60.1
USG%
20.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
13
2026-08-29
NYL
AWAY
20.7MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
28.6
USG%
15.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
6
2026-08-25
CON
AWAY
22.1MIN
6POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
37.5
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+10
PRA
9
2026-08-21
GSV
HOME
13.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
7.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
2
2026-08-18
NYL
HOME
14.1MIN
4POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2026-08-16
SEA
AWAY
4.9MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
3
2026-08-12
GSV
AWAY
12.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
14.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-19
PRA
3
2026-08-10
SEA
AWAY
3.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-08-08
IND
HOME
21.0MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
69.4
USG%
6.2
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
8
2026-08-05
LAS
HOME
6.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-08-03
PHO
HOME
25.7MIN
9POINTS
1 · 1 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
1-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
69.9
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
11
2026-08-01
LVA
HOME
4.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
30.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
1
2026-07-30
CON
HOME
13.3MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
56.4
USG%
17.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-07-22
NYL
AWAY
20.4MIN
5POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
35.7
USG%
15.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
9
2026-07-19
ATL
AWAY
14.7MIN
2POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
33.3
USG%
12.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
5
2026-07-17
LAS
HOME
13.9MIN
8POINTS
4 · 2 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
44.4
USG%
30.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
14
2026-07-15
SEA
HOME
18.9MIN
10POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-10
ABOVE
FG
5-10
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
22.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
13
2026-07-12
DAL
AWAY
17.1MIN
8POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.8
USG%
21.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
10
2026-07-10
LAS
AWAY
20.4MIN
15POINTS
5 · 0 · 6-12
ABOVE
FG
6-12
3PT
0-2
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
56.3
USG%
27.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
20
2026-07-07
PHO
AWAY
18.5MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
30.0
USG%
17.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+13
PRA
5
2026-07-03
LVA
AWAY
12.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.7
USG%
14.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
4
2026-06-28
LVA
HOME
12.3MIN
2POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
9.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-06-26
POR
HOME
24.1MIN
4POINTS
1 · 3 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
41.0
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+16
PRA
8
2026-06-24
POR
HOME
23.2MIN
10POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-1
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
54.3
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+13
PRA
16
2026-06-22
CON
AWAY
21.3MIN
5POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
29.6
USG%
21.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-19
PRA
9
2026-06-20
DAL
AWAY
25.3MIN
6POINTS
7 · 1 · 3-7
BELOW
FG
3-7
3PT
0-1
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
40.3
USG%
13.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
14
2026-06-17
NYL
HOME
28.9MIN
22POINTS
3 · 3 · 7-11
ABOVE
FG
7-11
3PT
4-5
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
86.2
USG%
23.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
28
2026-06-11
IND
AWAY
21.6MIN
6POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
43.6
USG%
13.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-14
PRA
9
2026-06-09
ATL
HOME
18.7MIN
3POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
38.7
USG%
24.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
5
+/−
-3
PRA
7
2026-06-07
TOR
AWAY
19.0MIN
11POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
61.9
USG%
24.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
15
2026-05-23
MIN
HOME
23.2MIN
7POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-8
ABOVE
FG
1-8
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
35.9
USG%
19.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
11
2026-05-20
DAL
HOME
28.5MIN
12POINTS
5 · 2 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
0-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
47.0
USG%
22.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-8
PRA
19
2026-05-17
MIN
AWAY
31.7MIN
20POINTS
8 · 1 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
1-2
FT
7-7
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
71.0
USG%
22.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
29
2026-05-15
PHO
AWAY
28.7MIN
13POINTS
3 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-1
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
80.4
USG%
15.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
16
2026-05-13
GSV
AWAY
26.0MIN
7POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
50.0
USG%
14.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+10
PRA
14
2026-05-09
POR
AWAY
32.0MIN
10POINTS
7 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
57.1
USG%
11.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+14
PRA
19
every game on file — nothing hidden