Maria Conde in blowouts

35 of 35 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

THU · SEP 24

Questionable She is Questionable tonight (Back).

TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 18 projected minutes

OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee

OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot

OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor

OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons

AT 15+ MINUTES · 202633 games · 27.1 min · 8.9 points

Tonight's projection is 18 minutes. This is her season at that workload.

WITHOUT MORROW31 games · 26.1 min · 8.2 pointswith her (n=4): 28.5 min · 11.0 pointswith her →

WITHOUT SYKES20 games · 28.9 min · 9.4 pointswith her (n=15): 23.2 min · 7.3 pointswith her →

WITHOUT MABREY5 games · 25.4 min · 5.8 pointswith her (n=30): 26.6 min · 9.0 pointswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

23 of these · baseline 12NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (8.2 pts) against in closer games (9.2), -1.0, t = -0.46, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

8.2

9.2

−1.0

t −0.46 · resolves ±4.2

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

4.5

0.0

t +0.03 · resolves ±1.6

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

2.9

1.9

+1.0

t +1.42 · resolves ±1.3

DIRECTIONAL

threes

1.4

1.8

−0.4

t −0.62 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.4

0.8

−0.4

t −1.18 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.1

0.3

−0.2

t −1.60 · resolves ±0.3

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

1.4

1.9

−0.5

t −1.18 · resolves ±0.8

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

15.6

0.0

t −0.01 · resolves ±5.6

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

12.7

13.7

−1.0

t −0.36 · resolves ±5.3

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

11.0

11.1

0.0

t −0.02 · resolves ±4.6

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

7.4

6.4

+1.0

t +0.88 · resolves ±2.2

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.5

1.1

−0.6

t −1.74 · resolves ±0.7

DIRECTIONAL

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 192 (this player's own top tercile)

12 of these · baseline 23DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (10.8 pts) against other games (7.3), +3.4, t = 1.64, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

10.8

7.3

+3.4

t +1.64 · resolves ±4.1

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

4.4

4.6

−0.1

t −0.16 · resolves ±1.9

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

2.9

2.3

+0.6

t +0.68 · resolves ±1.6

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

2.3

1.1

+1.1

t +2.10 · resolves ±1.0

MEASURED

steals

0.3

0.6

−0.3

t −1.22 · resolves ±0.4

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.2

0.0

t −0.05 · resolves ±0.3

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

1.4

1.7

−0.3

t −0.66 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

18.1

14.3

+3.8

t +1.30 · resolves ±5.8

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

15.2

11.9

+3.3

t +1.16 · resolves ±5.5

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

13.7

9.7

+4.0

t +1.73 · resolves ±4.5

DIRECTIONAL

reb+ast

7.3

6.9

+0.4

t +0.36 · resolves ±2.3

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.5

0.8

−0.3

t −0.99 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games

combined score <= 173 (this player's own bottom tercile)

12 of these · baseline 23NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (7.6 pts) against other games (9.0), -1.4, t = -0.73, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

7.6

9.0

−1.4

t −0.73 · resolves ±3.8

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

5.3

4.1

+1.1

t +1.32 · resolves ±1.7

DIRECTIONAL

assists

2.5

2.6

−0.1

t −0.09 · resolves ±1.4

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

1.4

1.6

−0.1

t −0.26 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.5

0.0

t −0.07 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.1

0.2

−0.1

t −1.11 · resolves ±0.2

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

2.0

1.4

+0.6

t +1.52 · resolves ±0.8

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

15.3

15.7

−0.4

t −0.14 · resolves ±5.1

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

12.8

13.1

−0.3

t −0.12 · resolves ±4.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

10.1

11.6

−1.5

t −0.69 · resolves ±4.2

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

7.8

6.7

+1.1

t +0.92 · resolves ±2.2

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.6

0.7

−0.2

t −0.48 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

Game log

all 35 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 9.2

2026-09-22

CHI

AWAY

13.9MIN

5POINTS

3 · 0 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 46.0
USG%: 16.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 8

2026-09-20

NYL

HOME

22.3MIN

0POINTS

2 · 3 · 0-8

BELOW

FG: 0-8
3PT: 0-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 21.6
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -24
PRA: 5

2026-08-26

SEA

AWAY

19.8MIN

4POINTS

4 · 4 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 18.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: +3
PRA: 12

2026-08-10

ATL

AWAY

27.9MIN

2POINTS

1 · 3 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 8.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -17
PRA: 6

2026-08-06

POR

AWAY

28.7MIN

6POINTS

6 · 2 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 14.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 14

2026-08-04

GSV

AWAY

30.1MIN

17POINTS

6 · 4 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 5-10
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 70.8
USG%: 24.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -11
PRA: 27

2026-08-02

GSV

AWAY

33.7MIN

10POINTS

5 · 5 · 5-14

ABOVE

FG: 5-14
3PT: 0-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 35.7
USG%: 21.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 20

2026-07-30

MIN

HOME

27.6MIN

5POINTS

2 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 11.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -13
PRA: 9

2026-07-28

MIN

AWAY

29.9MIN

20POINTS

10 · 1 · 7-16

ABOVE

FG: 7-16
3PT: 4-9
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 59.2
USG%: 29.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -11
PRA: 31

2026-07-20

LVA

HOME

27.6MIN

15POINTS

8 · 4 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 3-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 18.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 27

2026-07-17

ATL

HOME

30.7MIN

13POINTS

4 · 5 · 2-8

ABOVE

FG: 2-8
3PT: 1-5
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 17.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -22
PRA: 22

2026-07-14

WAS

HOME

30.0MIN

2POINTS

4 · 3 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 20.0
USG%: 10.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 9

2026-07-12

NYL

HOME

33.5MIN

15POINTS

2 · 2 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 3-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 63.1
USG%: 15.9
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 19

2026-07-10

DAL

HOME

34.8MIN

12POINTS

3 · 9 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 16.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -18
PRA: 24

2026-07-08

GSV

HOME

35.4MIN

9POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 50.7
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -5
PRA: 13

2026-07-05

DAL

HOME

28.5MIN

3POINTS

10 · 3 · 1-10

BELOW

FG: 1-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 15.0
USG%: 20.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: -12
PRA: 16

2026-06-27

PHO

HOME

37.2MIN

10POINTS

6 · 6 · 4-14

ABOVE

FG: 4-14
3PT: 1-8
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 34.6
USG%: 21.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 22

2026-06-25

LAS

HOME

28.9MIN

13POINTS

7 · 0 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 3-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 73.2
USG%: 14.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +27
PRA: 20

2026-06-22

ATL

AWAY

29.0MIN

8POINTS

4 · 2 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 13.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -20
PRA: 14

2026-06-19

CON

AWAY

27.5MIN

19POINTS

6 · 3 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 5-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 69.0
USG%: 21.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 28

2026-06-16

IND

AWAY

31.3MIN

12POINTS

4 · 5 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 3-4
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 71.1
USG%: 12.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -22
PRA: 21

2026-06-14

ATL

HOME

24.7MIN

12POINTS

3 · 4 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 1-2
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 53.6
USG%: 24.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -12
PRA: 19

2026-06-12

WAS

AWAY

21.8MIN

7POINTS

6 · 4 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 22.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +7
PRA: 17

2026-06-10

CON

HOME

14.6MIN

0POINTS

2 · 2 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 12.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 4

2026-06-07

CHI

HOME

24.3MIN

5POINTS

6 · 2 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 31.3
USG%: 15.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 13

2026-06-03

NYL

AWAY

21.0MIN

7POINTS

6 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 13.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -1
PRA: 14

2026-05-30

SEA

HOME

23.4MIN

13POINTS

6 · 2 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 3-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 83.8
USG%: 17.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +19
PRA: 21

2026-05-27

CHI

AWAY

21.5MIN

12POINTS

4 · 0 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 3-6
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 21.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 16

2026-05-23

POR

HOME

23.1MIN

8POINTS

5 · 1 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 40.5
USG%: 20.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -21
PRA: 14

2026-05-21

MIN

AWAY

20.5MIN

3POINTS

1 · 1 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 15.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -20
PRA: 5

2026-05-19

PHO

AWAY

33.3MIN

2POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-9

BELOW

FG: 1-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 11.1
USG%: 12.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 8

2026-05-17

LAS

AWAY

23.1MIN

5POINTS

0 · 3 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 13.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +5
PRA: 8

2026-05-15

LAS

AWAY

20.3MIN

6POINTS

4 · 0 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 17.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: 0
PRA: 10

2026-05-13

SEA

HOME

29.1MIN

16POINTS

8 · 0 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 4-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 21.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +11
PRA: 24

2026-05-08

WAS

HOME

15.4MIN

2POINTS

3 · 0 · 0-5

BELOW

FG: 0-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 17.0
USG%: 18.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +6
PRA: 5

every game on file — nothing hidden