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Ta'Niya Latson in blowouts

19 of 19 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

WED · OCT 7
LVA @ GSV9:30 PM ETnot in the projected lineup
OutJewell LoydLeft Leg
ProbableDana EvansRight Knee
QuestionableStephanie TalbotLeft Leg
WITHOUT LOYD9 games · 5.1 min · 1.8 pointswith her (10 games): 6.1 min · 4.3 pointswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
14 of these · baseline 5 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (3.8 pts) against in closer games (1.2), +2.6, t = 1.64, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.8
1.2
+2.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.1
0.0
+1.1
gap is 3.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
assists
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
threes
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
5.4
1.2
+4.2
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
MEASURED
pts+reb
4.9
1.2
+3.7
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
MEASURED
pts+ast
4.3
1.2
+3.1
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.6
0.0
+1.6
gap is 3.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.0
+0.8
gap is 3.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
field goal attempts
2.1
1.0
+1.1
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.1
0.2
+0.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.9
0.8
+1.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
0.6
+0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
fouls
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.6 pts) against other games (2.3), +2.3, t = 0.84, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 5.4).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.6
2.3
+2.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.6
0.3
+1.2
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
MEASURED
assists
0.6
0.3
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.7
2.8
+3.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.1
2.6
+3.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.1
2.5
+2.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.1
0.6
+1.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.1
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
0.3
+0.9
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
field goal attempts
2.1
1.7
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.1
0.7
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
2.7
0.9
+1.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
2.1
0.7
+1.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.3
0.8
−0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (1.6 pts) against other games (4.0), -2.4, t = -1.38, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.6
4.0
−2.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.6
0.9
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.6
5.3
−2.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
2.1
4.9
−2.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.0
4.3
−2.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.0
1.3
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.1
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.4
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.6
2.0
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.4
1.1
−0.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.6
2.2
−1.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.4
1.7
−1.2
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 19 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.2
2026-09-22
LAS
HOME
3.4MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
79.8
USG%
26.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-09-20
SEA
HOME
3.1MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
1-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
116.3
USG%
65.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
8
2026-08-23
TOR
AWAY
2.8MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
26.6
USG%
49.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-08-18
ATL
HOME
4.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
0
2026-08-13
WAS
HOME
2.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
36.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-08-11
WAS
HOME
10.1MIN
5POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
62.5
USG%
18.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
8
2026-08-09
NYL
AWAY
24.0MIN
20POINTS
4 · 2 · 6-9
ABOVE
FG
6-9
3PT
1-2
FT
7-8
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
79.9
USG%
29.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-24
PRA
26
2026-08-03
ATL
AWAY
2.0MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
2
2026-07-28
POR
HOME
3.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
41.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-06-27
IND
AWAY
6.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
18.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-06-25
TOR
AWAY
2.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-06-17
MIN
HOME
12.2MIN
6POINTS
3 · 2 · 0-2
ABOVE
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
6-9
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.3
USG%
28.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
11
2026-06-15
GSV
AWAY
3.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-06-02
LVA
HOME
6.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
ABOVE
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
53.2
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
5
2026-05-30
CON
AWAY
5.1MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
8.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
3
2026-05-29
WAS
AWAY
4.5MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
ABOVE
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
54.3
USG%
36.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
3
2026-05-15
TOR
HOME
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
0
2026-05-13
IND
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
54.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-05-10
LVA
HOME
4.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
3
every game on file — nothing hidden