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Taina Mair in blowouts

10 of 10 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
6 of these · baseline 4 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (1.0 pts) against in closer games (1.8), -0.8, t = -0.48, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.0
1.8
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.8
−0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.8
2.8
−0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.3
2.3
−0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.5
2.3
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.8
2.0
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
0.5
−0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.0
0.5
−0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.2
0.5
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 168 (this player's own top tercile)
4 of these · baseline 6 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.8 pts) against other games (1.0), +0.8, t = 0.48, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.8
1.0
+0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.8
0.2
+0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.0
1.7
+1.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.5
1.2
+1.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.3
1.5
+0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.3
0.7
+0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.5
2.2
−0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
1.2
−0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)
5 of these · baseline 5 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.2 pts) against other games (1.4), -0.2, t = -0.13, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.2
1.4
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.2
0.6
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.0
2.4
−0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.4
2.0
−0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.6
1.2
+1.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.0
0.4
+0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.4
0.4
+1.0
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 10 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.8
2026-09-19
GSV
AWAY
4.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
1
2026-08-30
LAS
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-08-26
TOR
HOME
7.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
1
2026-08-23
DAL
AWAY
12.7MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-12
PRA
8
2026-08-16
CHI
HOME
4.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
25.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
0
2026-08-08
POR
AWAY
4.8MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
28.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
5
2026-07-28
IND
HOME
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
1
2026-06-22
DAL
HOME
8.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
ABOVE
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.8
USG%
26.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-06-06
MIN
AWAY
1.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
48.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-05-20
CON
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden