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2026-07-02

Day by day

these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.

24–24 · 50% · −3.04u across the last 1 days · 5 voided, nothing staked

07/0224–24 ·5 void50%−3.04u3 games

permalink to 2026-07-02 →

SEA @ PHO7–13 ·3 void−6.95u
  • Lexi Held Under 8.5 PTS17 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHeld played 31 minutes—9 more than the 22.2 projected—and shot an elite 5-6 from three (83%) on 18% usage, translating her limited role into efficient scoring that easily cleared 8.5 points.
  • Natisha Hiedeman Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberHiedeman exceeded the 2.5 rebound line by grabbing 4 boards in 27 minutes, benefiting from elevated usage (27%) and playing without foul trouble (0 PF) that allowed her extended floor time to accumulate glass. Her activity on the glass proved pivotal despite a blowout loss, as she chipped in across multiple stat categories to stay engaged on both ends.
  • Flau'jae Johnson Over 12.5 PTS11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberJohnson's 4-12 shooting night (33% FG) fell just short despite playing 29 minutes with solid usage at 24%; the poor shot selection and execution—she made only 2 of 5 from three—left her one point shy of the over.
  • Flau'jae Johnson Over 20.5 PRA17 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson's inefficient 4-12 shooting (33% FG) combined with modest usage at 24% left her 3.5 points short despite playing 29 minutes, as she couldn't generate enough volume or efficiency to clear the 20.5 threshold.
  • Awa Fam Under 7.5 RA9 vs 7.5no clean explanationFam's efficient 6-8 shooting night (75% FG) kept her on the floor for 27 minutes with elevated usage (17%), allowing her to accumulate 9 rebounds and exceed the 7.5 line despite modest volume. Her three blocks and active defense further extended her playing time in a game where her +/- suggested competitive, close-margin minutes that maximized her rebound opportunities.
  • Valeriane Ayayi Under 18.5 PR20 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAyayi's efficient 64% TS% on 26% usage—particularly her 5-7 free-throw shooting—allowed her to reach 20 points despite modest volume, easily clearing the 18.5 line. She stayed out of foul trouble (3 PF in 27 min) and maintained the court presence needed to generate scoring opportunities.
ATL @ WAS7–4 ·2 void+1.35u
  • Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTS5 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's shot selection and efficiency collapsed—she went 1-for-5 from the field despite 26 minutes of run, finishing at 42% TS with just 12% usage, well below her recent 9.6-point average. A rare off night where she couldn't generate her typical scoring volume or accuracy, falling 2.5 points short.
  • Allisha Gray Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray hit the over despite the recent downturn, recording 3 assists in 33 minutes with elevated 24% usage—enough to clear the modest 2.5 line even though her shot wasn't falling (46% TS, 0-4 from three).
  • Angel Reese Under 14.5 RA16 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upReese pulled down 13 rebounds and added 3 assists for 16 total, exceeding the 14.5 line as Chicago relied heavily on her playmaking and rebounding in a balanced offensive approach. Despite shooting just 40% TS and 21% usage, her 34 minutes and team's need for ball movement in transition generated enough secondary stats to push past the number.
  • Angel Reese Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese played 34 minutes—her highest in recent weeks—and logged one extra assist (3 vs. the 2.5 line), breaking her recent 1.6 L10 average despite modest 21% usage, likely due to increased court time and offensive opportunities in what was a close game (±0).
DAL @ CON10–7+2.56u
  • Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 11.5 PA12 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationNelson-Ododa's 12 points came on efficient inside scoring (4-6 FG, 5 FT makes) despite limited usage at 22%, as she capitalized on her 24 minutes of playing time and high true shooting percentage (67%) to narrowly exceed the 11.5 line.
  • Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa's efficient 4-6 shooting (67% TS) in 24 minutes was enough to push her past the 9.5-point line despite modest volume, as she converted on limited opportunities rather than forcing shots. The under missed because her per-minute scoring rate (0.46 PPM) combined with her moderate playing time yielded just enough production to clear the threshold.
  • Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 16.5 PR19 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa's efficient 67% true shooting—fueled by perfect free-throw shooting (3-5) and solid field-goal work (4-6)—pushed her to 19 points despite modest volume, as her 24 minutes of playing time and 22% usage rate were sufficient to clear the under. The lack of foul trouble (4 PF) kept her on the floor longer than typical, allowing her to accumulate scoring opportunities in a game where her efficiency was elite.
  • Azzi Fudd Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFudd's 4 rebounds doubled her recent average (L5: 2.2) despite a dismal 29% TS and 17% usage, suggesting increased rebounding activity compensated for her offensive struggles and extended 32-minute rotation role.
  • Leila Lacan Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upLacan hit the over by a single assist despite shooting 5-14 from the field; her 32 minutes of run and 25% usage rate gave her enough ball-handling opportunities to reach 5 dimes even as her inefficient shooting limited her scoring impact.
  • Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa grabbed 8 rebounds in 24 minutes—one more than the 6.5 line—by maintaining strong rebounding activity despite modest scoring (4-6 FG); her 33% rebound rate was enough to clear the mark even at limited usage.

Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.