← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-03
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
20–25 · 44% · −8.45u across the last 1 days · 1 voided, nothing staked
07/0320–25 ·1 void44%−8.45u2 games
CHI @ LVA8–18 ·1 void−11.95u
- NaLyssa Smith Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberSmith dominated inside with 11-14 shooting (79% TS) in 34 minutes, naturally accumulating 8 rebounds as the primary interior presence despite modest 27% usage. The under missed because her elite efficiency and high volume of touches in the paint drove additional board opportunities beyond the projected total.
- NaLyssa Smith Under 12.5 PTS29 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberSmith erupted far above her depressed 5-game average (8.0 PPG) by shooting an elite 11-14 FG (79% TS) over 34 minutes with 27% usage, completely overriding the defensive matchup thesis that grounded the under at 12.5.
- Jackie Young Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upYoung grabbed one more board than her L10 average (4.4) despite modest usage at 21%, hitting the over by a single rebound in a game where she played all 39 minutes and drew only 3 fouls. The bet was vulnerable given the tight margin—needing just one rebound above her recent trend—and full availability allowed her to accumulate boards at a slightly elevated rate.
- Azura Stevens Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5no clean explanationStevens recorded 0 assists despite 26 minutes and efficient scoring (4-6 FG), as her low 19% usage rate and role as a finisher rather than facilitator left her with minimal ball-handling opportunities to generate helpers.
- NaLyssa Smith Under 12.5 PA30 vs 12.5no clean explanationSmith's elite 79% true shooting on 27% usage—fueled by an 11-14 field goal performance (79%)—generated 30 points in 34 minutes, far exceeding the 12.5-point projection. Her efficiency was the outlier; she shot nearly 20 percentage points above her season average, turning a modest usage rate into an outsized scoring night.
- Skylar Diggins Under 19.5 PA23 vs 19.5no clean explanationDiggins erupted on efficient shooting (7-13 FG, 66% TS) and logged 34 minutes with elevated usage (24%), combining for 23 points to clear the 19.5 line. Her 3-3 performance from the free-throw line and high-volume field-goal attempts (13 total) drove the over-limit output.
MIN @ NYL12–7+3.50u
- Breanna Stewart Under 31.5 PRA43 vs 31.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart's elite 83% true shooting and 34% usage rate drove a dominant 36-point, 7-rebound performance—a 11.5-point cushion over the line—as she shot 14-19 from the field in a game her team controlled throughout (+17 plus-minus).
- Kayla McBride Under 17.5 PA19 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (7-16 FG), staying on court for 33 minutes with 24% usage to accumulate 19 points and cover the over. Her elevated playing time and opportunity volume in what was likely a competitive game drove the bet past 17.5 points.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberIonescu exceeded her recent assist average (3.6 per game L5/L10) by recording 6 dimes in 35 minutes, a season-high assist total that reflected increased playmaking opportunities in a blowout win (+18). Despite the modest 21% usage rate, she converted opportunities more freely than her pre-game profile suggested, pushing her over the 4.5 threshold.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded her recent scoring floor with efficient shooting (62% TS, 4-4 FT) and five extra minutes (35 vs. her 29-min average), lifting her to 17 points despite modest usage at 21%.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 19.5 PA23 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu stuffed the stat sheet with 6 assists and 2 steals across 35 minutes, accumulating 23 PA despite modest 5-12 shooting—the volume came from playmaking and defensive activity rather than scoring attempts alone. Her +18 rating in a blowout win indicated heavy involvement throughout, keeping her engaged on both ends even when her shot wasn't falling.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 23.5 PRA25 vs 23.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 6 assists pushed her over the line despite modest scoring (17 pts on 5-12 FG), as she played 35 minutes in a blowout win (+18) where she operated as the primary playmaker. The under missed by just 2 points largely due to assist volume offsetting her below-average shooting night.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.