← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-04
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
8–17 · 32% · −9.42u across the last 1 days
07/048–1732%−9.42u2 games
GSV @ ATL4–13−8.94u
- Veronica Burton Under 15.5 PR22 vs 15.5no clean explanationBurton torched the under on elite efficiency, shooting 6-9 from the field (67%) and 7-8 from the free throw line (88%) while logging 30 minutes with 24% usage—her high-volume shot-making and free throw rate far exceeded the scoring pace baked into the 15.5 line.
- Gabby Williams Under 21.5 PRA22 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilliams exceeded the line with efficient scoring, hitting 7-of-14 from the field (50%) and 4-of-8 from three while playing all 27 available minutes without foul trouble, combining 19 points and 3 steals to reach 22 PRA.
- Gabby Williams Under 19.5 PR20 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilliams hit 7 of 14 from the field and 4 of 8 from three, posting a 66% true shooting percentage that exceeded her season baseline and allowed her to reach 19 points on moderate 24% usage in 27 minutes. The efficient shooting night—particularly the 50% three-point clip—proved just enough to clear the 19.5-point line by a single point.
- Gabby Williams Under 14.5 PTS19 vs 14.5no clean explanationWilliams shot an efficient 7-14 from the field (50%) with a 4-8 night from three to exceed the under, overcoming her typically modest usage rate with elite shot-making. Her 66% true shooting and 27 minutes of floor time powered her to 19 points despite the modest 24% usage, making her a volume-independent scoring threat on this night.
- Rhyne Howard Under 7.5 RA8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's 8 rebounds came despite modest volume, as she played heavy minutes (37) and grabbed boards at a higher rate than her season average, with 5 of her 8 boards coming on the offensive glass to generate second-chance opportunities.
- Rhyne Howard Under 24.5 PRA27 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's 27 PRA came from efficient scoring (57% TS on 19% usage) combined with a full 37-minute workload that inflated her rebounding and assist totals beyond typical output. The under missed because her elite shot quality and high minutes generated floor-spacing production that pushed her over the 24.5 threshold despite only hitting 40% from the field.
POR @ SEA4–4−0.48u
- Bridget Carleton Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5no clean explanationCarleton nearly doubled the line with 7 rebounds in 31 minutes, benefiting from elevated usage (25%) and a team pace that generated multiple rebounding opportunities despite her poor 4-14 shooting night. The UNDER missed because volume and available minutes, rather than efficiency, drove her to the glass.
- Dominique Malonga Under 26.5 PR27 vs 26.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMalonga's 27 PR came despite modest 19 minutes of play because her 51% usage rate and 55% true shooting efficiency generated outsized scoring value; she needed just 7-17 shooting to reach 27 points, easily clearing the 26.5 threshold.
- Megan Gustafson Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGustafson attempted only 4 threes despite playing 28 minutes—well below the 3–4 projected launch rate—and connected on just 1, likely due to reduced offensive usage (11%) in a game where Seattle's elite perimeter defense (0.47 threes allowed to wings) successfully limited her volume.
- Megan Gustafson Under 3.5 REB9 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGustafson crashed the glass harder than expected, pulling down 9 rebounds in 28 minutes—more than double the 3.5 line—despite modest scoring (10 pts on 57% shooting) that suggested a quiet game. Her rebounding activity and +9 rating indicate she was heavily involved in hustle plays and second-chance opportunities, the kind of under-the-radar production that can easily bust a low rebounding prop.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.