← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-05
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
23–21 · 52% · −1.57u across the last 1 days · 7 voided, nothing staked
07/0523–21 ·7 void52%−1.57u2 games
DAL @ TOR7–10 ·3 void−3.95u
- Azzi Fudd Under 19.5 PRA22 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upFudd stayed aggressive with 24% usage and hit 5-of-11 from three despite shooting just 6-of-16 overall, combining 17 points with 5 steals and 3 rebounds over 30 minutes to reach 22 PRA. Her three-point volume and efficiency—particularly the 45% clip from deep—proved enough to clear the 19.5 line despite a moderate overall shooting night.
- Maria Conde Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upConde shot just 1-for-3 from three on 28 minutes of work, finishing well short of the over despite solid playing time; her overall offensive inefficiency (1-10 FG, 15% TS%) limited her three-point volume in what was a cold shooting night.
- Marina Mabrey Over 3.5 3PM3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMabrey fell one three-pointer short despite 31 minutes and solid volume, hitting just 3-of-9 from deep (33%) in a game where the team trailed heavily and limited her shooting opportunities in the final quarter.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 15.5 PR16 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's 10 points fell short of 15.5, so the under should have hit—but the box shows she finished with 16 points, meaning the bet missed because she exceeded the line by one point despite shooting just 4-13 (31%) from the field and 1-7 (14%) from three. Her 27 minutes of playing time and 22% usage kept her volume modest, but her 1-1 free-throw shooting and slightly elevated efficiency allowed her to barely clear the under threshold.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 5.5 RA8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale grabbed 6 rebounds in 27 minutes despite shooting just 4-13 from the field, exceeding the 5.5 line as her volume on the boards compensated for inefficient scoring. The blowout victory (+24 rating) likely kept her on the floor for garbage time, inflating rebound opportunities beyond expectations.
- Paige Bueckers Under 27.5 PA29 vs 27.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBueckers eclipsed the 27.5 PA line with 29 total points and assists combined, fueled by efficient scoring (9-16 FG, 64% TS) and a steady playmaking workload (7 AST) across 30 minutes despite moderate 27% usage. The high shooting efficiency and full allotment of playing time allowed her to accumulate enough volume to push past the number without needing heavy ball dominance.
IND @ LVA16–11 ·4 void+2.38u
- Jewell Loyd Under 10.5 PTS12 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberLoyd's efficient 4-5 free-throw shooting pushed her over the total despite a modest 3-9 field-goal line, as she cashed in on 80% from the stripe to reach 12 points in 32 minutes. The under needed her to stay under 10.5, but her free-throw volume and accuracy made up for below-average shooting from the field.
- Raven Johnson Under 3.5 REB6 vs 3.5no clean explanationJohnson's 6 rebounds crushed the under despite poor offensive efficiency (33% TS), as she logged 22 minutes—a significant bump from her 13.7-minute average—and secured 6 boards on just 9 field goal attempts, suggesting aggressive rebounding activity that overcame her limited scoring role.
- Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Under 7.5 PTS9 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upParker-Tyus exceeded her L10 average despite similar 13-minute run, converting 3-of-5 from the field (60% FG) and adding 3-of-4 free throws for an efficient 67% TS that pushed her just over the 7.5 line. The under missed on elite shot-making rather than increased volume, as her 29% usage stayed in line with projections.
- Lexie Hull Under 7.5 PTS10 vs 7.5no clean explanationHull's recent form (5.6 ppg L10, 4.8 ppg L5) suggested a fade, but she stayed on the court for 22 minutes with elevated 23% usage and converted 50% of her shots, enough to clear 7.5 despite cool 5-10 FG efficiency.
- Monique Billings Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberBillings grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line despite modest 21 minutes and 16% usage, pulling down 6 boards on efficient 3-5 shooting in a blowout where the team dominated the glass (+10 +/-).
- Lexie Hull Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHull grabbed 4 rebounds in 22 minutes—just one shy of the line—after shooting 50% from the field and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF), keeping her active on the glass despite modest usage (23%). The sharp model's fair value of 0.5801 on the over reflected a real edge, and she hit it by a single rebound.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.