← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-06
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
25–12 · 68% · +7.18u across the last 1 days · 7 voided, nothing staked
07/0625–12 ·7 void68%+7.18u3 games
CON @ MIN4–6 ·5 void−2.25u
- Natasha Howard Under 18.5 PA22 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot an efficient 6-10 from the field and 6-7 from the line (69% TS) while maintaining high usage (25%) over 26 minutes, accumulating 22 points to blow past the 18.5 line. Her aggressive free-throw rate (7 attempts) and hot field-goal percentage made up for zero three-pointers and kept her scoring pace well above the projection.
- Nia Coffey Over 11.5 PA5 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCoffey's 15% usage rate and brutal 0-6 shooting night (0% from three) left her with just 5 points, far short of the 11.5 pa line, as she managed only 2 made field goals in 20 minutes of action.
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (69% TS on 25% usage), held back by just 26 minutes of playing time and five personal fouls that limited her availability on the glass.
- Kayla McBride Under 18.5 PA30 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride went nuclear from the field, shooting 10-19 (52.6%) with 4-8 from three to rack up 28 points in 38 minutes, easily eclipsing the 18.5 line with her 31% usage rate and elite 66% true shooting efficiency.
- Kayla McBride Under 16.5 PTS28 vs 16.5no clean explanationMcBride torched the under with 28 points on elite 66% true shooting (10-19 FG, 4-8 3PT) while playing 38 minutes—well above the projected 32—in a game that didn't blow out as the model's 62% blowout risk had anticipated, allowing her elevated usage (31%) to translate into heavy volume scoring instead of the expected pace suppression.
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the assist line by operating as a secondary playmaker in extended run (36 minutes, 28% usage), recording 6 dimes despite shooting efficiently (10-21 FG) and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF).
GSV @ WAS4–1 ·2 void+1.64u
- Janelle Salaun Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun's hot streak held up despite inefficient shooting (2-9 from three, 31% TS) because she stayed on the court for 25 minutes—above her season average—and found enough opportunities to hit 2 threes on elevated volume, validating the 70% over rate that defied the fair model.
SEA @ LAS17–5+7.80u
- Ariel Atkins Under 3.5 REB5 vs 3.5no clean explanationAtkins grabbed 5 rebounds in 22 minutes despite a poor offensive night (2-6 FG), as her activity on the glass—particularly on a night when she wasn't scoring—pushed her over the 3.5 line in limited playing time.
- Natisha Hiedeman Under 2.5 REB6 vs 2.5no clean explanationHiedeman's 6 rebounds exceeded the 2.5 line by more than double, driven by 25 minutes of court time and aggressive activity on the glass despite modest usage at 22%. Her +16 rating suggests she benefited from a high-scoring game flow that created additional rebound opportunities.
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson fell one rebound short despite heavy usage (38%) and solid scoring efficiency, held back by limited floor time at 27 minutes and the game's blowout nature (+15, likely reducing rebounding opportunities in garbage time).
- Awa Fam Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberFam went 1-for-7 from three on 25 minutes of playing time, converting just 14% of her three-point attempts despite moderate usage at 17%—a significant underperformance from deep that sank the over despite decent overall activity.
- Dearica Hamby Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby shot 6-9 from the field (67% FG) and 5-7 from the line (71% FT) for elite 70% true shooting, well above her season norm, easily clearing the 14.5 despite playing only 29 minutes and seeing modest 22% usage. The efficient shooting—not increased volume—was the driver; she simply didn't miss.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.