← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-08
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
15–15 · 50% · −3.48u across the last 1 days
07/0815–1550%−3.48u3 games
IND @ LAS3–8−6.32u
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberOgwumike went 2-for-4 from three despite her recent averages (1.2 L10, 0.8 L5), hitting at a 50% clip from deep in 31 minutes—well above her typical volume and efficiency from beyond the arc. The hot shooting night from three, combined with high usage (28%), pushed her over the 1.5 line despite the under being positioned correctly on her season trends.
- Ariel Atkins Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberAtkins hit 2-of-5 from three despite modest usage (17%), converting at 40% from deep—above her season average—and played a full 31 minutes without foul trouble to stay on the floor for elevated shot volume.
- Erica Wheeler Under 8.5 PTS12 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's efficient 5-10 shooting (50% FG) and elevated 29 minutes pushed her over the 8.5 total despite modest 16% usage, as she benefited from hot early-game shooting that our model had underestimated.
- Erica Wheeler Under 13.5 PA18 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's 18 points exceeded the 13.5 line despite modest 5-10 shooting (50% FG) because she operated efficiently from three-point range and the free-throw line, posting 57% true shooting over 29 minutes of run. Her 16% usage rate proved sufficient for an over performance when paired with her high-efficiency scoring night.
- Ariel Atkins Under 9.5 PTS12 vs 9.5no clean explanationAtkins exceeded her recent 7.2 ppg average despite modest 17% usage, shooting a hot 55% TS and playing 31 minutes—7 more than her L10 average—to push past the 9.5 line. The uptick in playing time and efficient shooting (4-10 FG, 2-5 3PT) proved decisive in what was otherwise a low-volume performance.
- Ariel Atkins Under 12.5 PR15 vs 12.5no clean explanationAtkins exceeded the under on point rebounds (12 points + 4 rebounds = 16, vs. 12.5 line) despite modest scoring; her 31 minutes of run and 17% usage gave her enough opportunities to accumulate 4 boards that pushed her over the threshold.
GSV @ TOR2–1+0.16u
- Gabby Williams Over 19.5 PRA10 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams delivered just 10 PRA on only 18 minutes played, falling well short of the 19.5 line; her inefficient 3-9 shooting (33% FG) and limited offensive opportunities at 29% usage made it impossible to reach the threshold despite the low floor of available minutes.
MIN @ CON10–6+2.68u
- Kayla McBride Under 22.5 PA27 vs 22.5no clean explanationMcBride's perfect 9-for-9 from the free-throw line and efficient 6-for-10 shooting generated 27 points in 38 minutes, easily clearing the 22.5 total as she took advantage of elevated usage (17%) in a game where the team needed her scoring.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 17.5 PR19 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationNelson-Ododa exceeded the under on points+rebounds (19 vs. 17.5) despite modest volume, shooting an efficient 68% TS on 9 field-goal attempts and grabbing 5 boards in 27 minutes of play. The combination of high-efficiency scoring and solid rebounding in limited minutes proved just enough to push her over the line.
- Courtney Williams Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded her recent trend (L10: 3.9 APG) by distributing the ball at a higher rate tonight, finishing with 7 assists on 28% usage and 30 minutes—a marked uptick from her pattern of rarely hitting the over on this line.
- Kayla McBride Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMcBride exceeded her recent assist average (2.4 L5) by logging a season-high 38 minutes in a game where she shot 90% from the field, elevating her offensive rhythm and creating more ball-movement opportunities than her typical role. Her zero turnovers on 17% usage also indicates she maintained efficient decision-making throughout the extended run.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 19.5 PRA21 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationNelson-Ododa's 68% true shooting and efficient 6-9 shooting night pushed her to 21 PRA despite modest 27 minutes, as her high-volume scoring on limited touches (19% usage) exceeded the under's expectation for a bench role.
- Leila Lacan Under 19.5 PRA27 vs 19.5no clean explanationLacan torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 5-for-9 from the field (56%) and 3-for-3 from the line while adding 6 assists to finish at 27 PRA—8 points clear of the line. Her 73% true shooting and 29 minutes of run time were enough to overcome modest 17% usage, as the high-efficiency rate converted limited volume into a decisive beat.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.