← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-10
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
14–10 · 58% · +1.38u across the last 1 days · 1 voided, nothing staked
07/1014–10 ·1 void58%+1.38u3 games
GSV @ CON4–4 ·1 void−0.69u
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 11.5 PTS12 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa pushed past the line on modest volume, converting 5 of 13 shots (38%) but getting to the free-throw line twice to reach 12 points in 25 minutes of heavy usage (36%), just enough to clear the 11.5 threshold despite inefficient shooting.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 13.5 PA16 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa exceeded the under despite poor efficiency (41% TS, 5-13 FG) because her 36% usage rate and 25 minutes of play generated enough volume—she attempted 13 shots and got to the free-throw line twice, accumulating 16 PA on a high-volume night. The blowout loss (-9 +/-) didn't limit her opportunities early enough to keep her under the projection.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 21.5 PRA24 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa hit the over on volume alone: she played 25 minutes with 36% usage and logged 8 rebounds and 4 assists to reach 24 PRA, despite shooting just 5-13 (38 FG%) and turning the ball over four times.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 18.5 PR20 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa eclipsed the line despite inefficient scoring (5-13 FG, 41% TS) because she logged 25 minutes with 36% usage, generating enough volume through 8 rebounds and 4 assists to reach 20 points. The under missed on pure opportunity—she took 13 shots and was heavily involved in the offense despite poor conversion rates.
DAL @ TOR5–3+0.91u
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale shot just 1-for-3 from three despite 30 minutes and solid overall efficiency (71% TS), with her scoring punch coming almost entirely from two-pointers (5-8) and free throws (7-7) rather than her usual perimeter volume. The recency concern proved justified: her L5 average of 1.0 threes aligned perfectly with this outcome, and even her elevated L10 mark of 1.8 couldn't overcome a shooting night where she simply didn't get to or hit enough threes.
- Julie Allemand Under 9.5 RA13 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand's 8 assists and 5 rebounds combined for 13 ra, beating the under despite inefficient scoring (1-3 FG); she played all 34 available minutes and ran the offense enough to rack up periphery stats that mattered more than her scoring drought.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 13.5 PTS20 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale torched the line with elite efficiency, shooting 6-11 from the field (55%) and a perfect 7-7 from the free-throw line to reach 20 points in 30 minutes, well above the 13.5 threshold.
CHI @ LAS5–3+1.16u
- Ariel Atkins Under 9.5 PTS17 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberAtkins torched the under with an unusually efficient 7-13 shooting night (54% FG) despite modest 21% usage, converting at a 63% true shooting rate that far exceeded her season baseline and the game script. The sharp under thesis crumbled on her hot hand—she simply shot the lights out in 29 minutes rather than the inefficient, limited-volume night the projection anticipated.
- Erica Wheeler Under 13.5 PA23 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberWheeler's efficient 6-10 shooting (60% FG, 75% TS%) and extended 28-minute run gave her far more scoring opportunities than the 13.5 line anticipated. Her 18% usage rate on a team that leaned on her in the second half drove her to 23 points, well above the under threshold.
- Ariel Atkins Under 12.5 PR20 vs 12.5no clean explanationAtkins erupted to 17 points on 7-13 shooting (63% TS) with efficient 3-point range, far exceeding the modest 12.5 prop threshold despite modest 21% usage and 29 minutes. Her hot hand and high-volume scoring night—aided by a +24 rating in a blowout—made the under an easy miss.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.