← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-11
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
15–20 · 43% · −9.49u across the last 1 days
07/1115–2043%−9.49u3 games
POR @ ATL1–11−10.55u
- Naz Hillmon Under 15.5 PRA25 vs 15.5no clean explanationHillmon dominated the glass and scoring in 36 minutes, shooting 6-of-11 from the field (55%) to finish with 15 points and 8 rebounds for 25 PRA, well above the 15.5 line. Her efficient offensive night combined with heavy rebounding activity easily cleared the under despite modest usage, as she was a primary option in a game that stayed competitive throughout.
- Madina Okot Under 11.5 PTS19 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOkot's efficient 7-14 shooting (50% FG) and perfect 5-5 free-throw line combined with high usage (33%) to push her well over the 11.5-point threshold despite playing just 22 minutes. She nearly doubled the projection by converting at a 59% true-shooting clip on aggressive volume.
- Madina Okot Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOkot exceeded the 6.5 rebound line by grabbing 8 boards in 22 minutes, capitalizing on a 33% usage rate and 7-14 shooting efficiency that kept her heavily involved on the glass. Her activity on the offensive end—combined with limited foul trouble (1 PF)—allowed her to stay on the floor and compete for rebounds throughout.
- Madina Okot Under 18.5 PR27 vs 18.5no clean explanationOkot erupted for 27 points on an efficient 7-14 FG and 5-5 FT despite limited 22 minutes, converting at 59% TS while commanding 33% usage—well above typical volume for her role. The high efficiency and usage rate in condensed minutes pushed her well past the 18.5 total.
- Naz Hillmon Under 14.5 PR23 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberHillmon's 23 PR crushed the under on explosive efficiency: she shot 6-11 from the field (55%) while playing 36 minutes of heavy usage, combining 15 points and 8 rebounds to rack up contributions far beyond the 14.5 projection.
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberHoward hit the over despite modest offensive efficiency (3-9 FG, 51% TS) because she was heavily involved in playmaking and ball-handling duties in the starting role (31 min, 4 steals), generating one more assist than her season average of 2.8 to clear the 3.5 line.
NYL @ MIN8–7−1.29u
- Dorka Juhasz Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5no clean explanationJuhasz bricked both her three-point attempts (0-2 from deep) in just 16 minutes, finishing 0-for-2 from three with minimal offensive involvement at 8% usage. The limited floor time and cold shooting from distance doomed the over.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 19.5 PA30 vs 19.5no clean explanationIonescu erupted for 30 PA on 31% usage and 57% TS%, converting 9-of-20 FG while staying out of foul trouble (0 PF) and logging a full 35 minutes, well exceeding the under's expectation of a quieter offensive night.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS25 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under by playing 35 minutes (6 more than projected) and shooting an efficient 57% TS on 31% usage, converting 9-of-20 from the field including 4 foul shots with no fouls to limit her floor time. The game flow and blowout margin (+7) allowed her to stay on the court and accumulate volume in a way the tight 3.5-point spread and 173.5 total suggested wouldn't materialize.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu hit exactly 3 threes on 12 attempts (25% from deep), landing right at the threshold; she stayed aggressive throughout 35 minutes with 31% usage and never fouled out, giving her enough volume and opportunity to clear the 2.5 mark despite below-average three-point shooting.
- Olivia Miles Under 1.5 3PM4 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiles went 4-7 from three (57%), well above her season norm, and played a full 32 minutes without foul trouble, giving her plenty of volume to exceed the 1.5 three-point line.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 18.5 PR33 vs 18.5no clean explanationIonescu exploded for 33 PR on elite efficiency (57% TS, 9-20 FG) while logging 35 minutes with zero fouls, allowing her to sustain high usage (31%) without restriction. The 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists all came in abundance, easily clearing the 18.5 line.
PHO @ LVA6–2+2.34u
- Valeriane Ayayi Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAyayi played 31 minutes—10 above her stable 20.1 pre-game average—and grabbed 7 rebounds, directly contradicting the under thesis that relied on her limited run; the extended floor time overwhelmed her typically modest rebounding rate.
- Jewell Loyd Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd hit the over on modest volume, recording 3 assists in 28 minutes despite a quiet 14% usage rate—she simply facilitated enough to clear the low bar despite struggling to score (3-7 FG). The under required her to contribute 2 or fewer, but even in a low-usage game she managed one extra helper.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.