← scout_ml · WNBA
2026-07-22
Day by day
these are the scout_ml picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
17–14 · 55% · −0.69u across the last 1 days
07/2217–1455%−0.69u6 games
MIN @ SEA3–5−3.12u
- Dominique Malonga Under 27.5 PRA32 vs 27.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMalonga torched the under with elite 76% true shooting on 28% usage, converting 9-of-13 from the field to pile up 21 points in just 26 minutes, while her 9 rebounds pushed her to 32 PRA and 4.5 points clear of the line. Her combination of efficient scoring and heavy rebounding activity—boosted by 4 blocks—delivered far more production per minute than the under-27.5 projection allowed for.
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams distributed the ball effectively despite shooting 0-for-5, tallying 6 assists in 20 minutes as the primary facilitator in a blowout win (+9 on-court rating). Her 15% usage rate and zero points forced her into a pure playmaking role, which proved sufficient to clear the 4.5 assist line.
- Dominique Malonga Under 25.5 PR30 vs 25.5no clean explanationMalonga's efficient 69.2% true shooting (9-13 FG, 2-2 FT) combined with 28% usage over 26 minutes generated enough volume to exceed the 25.5 threshold, pushing her to 30 PR despite modest per-minute scoring rates. The under missed because her elite shot selection and finishing—particularly her 9-for-13 field goal performance—converted at a rate high enough to overcome her limited playing time.
- Nia Coffey Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5no clean explanationCoffey's limited 16 minutes and low usage rate (16%) restricted her rebounding opportunities, allowing only 2 boards despite efficient scoring (3-5 FG). The reduced playing time was the primary factor in falling short of the 3.5 rebound target.
- Napheesa Collier Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanationCollier operated almost entirely as a scorer rather than a facilitator, posting a 44% usage rate with 24 points on 20 shots while recording just 1 assist in 22 minutes—a usage-heavy, ball-dominant performance that left little playmaking opportunity.
LVA @ WAS1–1−0.44u
- Georgia Amoore Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore went 2-for-3 from three despite modest 23 minutes and 14% usage, hitting at an unsustainable 66.7% clip from deep—well above her season norms—to flip the under.
DAL @ POR3–3+0.02u
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 21.5 PA30 vs 21.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's elite 82% true shooting and 8-12 field goal performance (67%) far exceeded her typical efficiency, allowing her to reach 30 points despite modest 20% usage and 35 minutes played. The under missed because she converted at an unusually high rate rather than through elevated volume or minutes.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 23.5 PRA33 vs 23.5no clean explanationOgunbowale's elite efficiency—67% from three and 83% true shooting—allowed her to rack up 24 points on just 20% usage, and her 6 assists pushed her well over the 23.5 threshold despite playing a balanced role.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 3.5 AST6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale exceeded the 3.5 assist line by orchestrating the offense in 35 minutes with elevated usage (20%), finishing with 6 dimes while shooting an efficient 8-12 from the field. Her high volume and extended court time—paired with hot shooting that kept plays flowing—pushed her well above the under threshold.
CON @ IND2–1+0.70u
- Monique Billings Under 8.5 PA13 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBillings shot an efficient 5-7 from the field and 2-2 from free throw in 20 minutes, converting 9 of her 12 points from high-percentage looks near the basket, which pushed her over the 8.5 assists+rebounds threshold despite modest volume.
CHI @ NYL1–0+0.88u
PHO @ LAS7–4+1.27u
- Ariel Atkins Under 16.5 PRA22 vs 16.5no clean explanationAtkins torched her scoring projection on elite efficiency (76% TS, 5-9 FG) while playing heavy minutes (33), finishing with 15 points and 7 combined rebounds and assists to cruise past 16.5 pra despite modest 14% usage.
- Ariel Atkins Under 13.5 PR19 vs 13.5no clean explanationAtkins shot 5-of-9 from the field (56%) with efficient 3-point shooting (3-6) and didn't foul out, playing a full 33 minutes to exceed the under despite modest 14% usage. Her 76% true shooting percentage and clean foul sheet allowed her to convert opportunities at a high rate and stay on the floor for extended run.
- Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationCopper exceeded the assist line by just one, recording 3 dimes in 30 minutes while maintaining efficient scoring (10-16 FG) that kept her as a primary offensive option rather than a pure facilitator. Her high usage rate (25%) and dominant shot selection limited playmaking opportunities, but she still found enough passing lanes to narrowly clear the modest 2.5 threshold.
- Ariel Atkins Under 10.5 PTS15 vs 10.5paid over the fair numberAtkins exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 5-9 from the field (56%) with a 3-6 night from three to reach 15 points despite modest 14% usage, as her elite 76% true shooting percentage made her scorable minutes more productive than typical.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.