Measured against the same games
Which model holds up?
Compare original gameplay forecasts with their frozen recent-rate baseline. This measures forecast quality—not betting profit or an AI analyst’s persuasive explanation.
Comparing scheduled captures from 24 hours before tip only. Browsing a game does not enroll it. Expected, confirmed and user-edited scenarios are kept separate. No model is declared a winner until the registered validation and publication gates pass.
Complete captured window: 2026-09-11 through 2026-10-10, by scheduled tip date in UTC. No sampling or truncation.
0 selected team captures · 0 excluded · 0 provisional outcomes · 0 final outcomes. These are different units; pending captures are not a count of players.
Registered before the checkpoint
8 prospectively enrolled capture revisions across the period’s checkpoints. 0 older, unregistered or other-protocol revisions are excluded from these model scores, out of 8 observed revisions. Revisions are not independent players or games.
Registration identity and exclusions
nrp_15306058b1fd796ac221a12e
Only this protocol is compared. Registration freezes the descriptive research rules. It does not qualify a model for official recommendations.
Did the scheduled runs happen?
0 protocol-enrolled team checkpoints across all source-lineup cohorts. No enrolled schedule opportunities recorded for this period yet.
20 observed checkpoints were not enrolled and are excluded from this denominator. These execution counts are separate from scored players. Overall schedule completeness remains unknown: unresolved tips and source dates cannot be counted as zero missing games.
Coverage accounting rules
- Only schedule identities actually retrieved by Research are registered.
- A failed date fetch or invalid/TBD game cannot be counted from team opportunities; this report does not claim complete official-schedule coverage.
- Retrospective or late-first-seen slates are unobserved, not missed pre-tip opportunities.
- This is opportunity coverage, not a forecast score or recommendation ledger.
No settled paired forecasts yet. Upcoming captures remain visible in the denominator; historical outcomes are not retroactively turned into pregame predictions.
Population and comparison rules
- Public model comparisons score only prospectively protocol-enrolled captures; unregistered historical revisions are separately counted.
- League comparisons cover only the explicit UTC tip-date window; older_window navigates the full archive without sampling or truncation.
- Only captured opportunities are measured; schedule watchdog coverage is separate.
- Expected-lineup and user scenarios never enter the confirmed-lineup cohort.
- All scores use original frozen distributions and latest available official correction receipts.
- No model ranking is released without a registered sufficiently powered promotion protocol.