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Justine Pissott in blowouts

13 of 13 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

WED · OCT 7
LVA @ GSV9:30 PM ETbench · 1 projected minutes
OutJewell LoydLeft Leg
ProbableDana EvansRight Knee
QuestionableStephanie TalbotLeft Leg
GAMES SHE PLAYED 10+ MIN · 20264 games · 15.2 min · 8.8 points

Tonight's projection is 1 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

She has not played a game without Loyd this season.

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
13 of these · baseline 0 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

13 game(s) in the bucket against 0 outside — too few on one side to compare

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 187 (this player's own top tercile)
5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (0.6 pts) against other games (4.6), -4.0, t = -1.61, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.6
4.6
−4.0
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.0
1.4
−1.4
gap is 4.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
assists
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
1.1
−0.9
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
0.8
6.3
−5.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
0.6
6.0
−5.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.3
MEASURED
pts+ast
0.8
4.9
−4.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
0.2
1.6
−1.4
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.0
1.4
−1.4
gap is 4.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
field goal attempts
1.0
4.0
−3.0
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.2
1.6
−1.4
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.0
1.6
−1.6
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
MEASURED
three-point attempts
1.0
2.8
−1.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 179 (this player's own bottom tercile)
5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.2 pts) against other games (2.4), +1.8, t = 0.46, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 7.7).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.2
2.4
+1.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
0.8
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.4
3.4
+2.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 8.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.2
3.1
+2.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 8.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.4
2.6
+1.8
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 8.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.0
0.8
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.2
3.3
−1.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
0.9
+0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.4
1.4
−1.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.8
2.3
−0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 13 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 0.0
2026-10-04PLAYOFF R2 G1
GSV
AWAY
1.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2
IND
AWAY
0.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
IND
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-17
SEA
AWAY
2.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
0
2026-08-28
TOR
HOME
3.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-08-23
TOR
AWAY
2.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
34.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2026-08-20
CON
HOME
3.8MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
113.6
USG%
9.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
3
2026-08-09
NYL
AWAY
25.2MIN
11POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-14
ABOVE
FG
4-14
3PT
3-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
39.3
USG%
30.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-28
PRA
15
2026-08-03
ATL
AWAY
3.4MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
27.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
3
2026-07-28
POR
HOME
12.2MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
8.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
6
+/−
+10
PRA
5
2026-07-20
TOR
AWAY
9.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-07-12
IND
HOME
13.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
20.0
USG%
16.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-24
PRA
3
2026-07-11
PHO
HOME
10.0MIN
19POINTS
2 · 1 · 7-8
ABOVE
FG
7-8
3PT
5-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
118.8
USG%
39.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
22
every game on file — nothing hidden