← claude_combined · WNBA
2026-06-26
Day by day
these are the claude_combined picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
21–16 · 57% · +1.82u across the last 1 days
06/2621–1657%+1.82u3 games
POR @ CHI2–8−6.47u
- Gabriela Jaquez Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberJaquez played her typical 24 minutes but crashed to just 1 rebound despite the neutral matchup, a dramatic collapse from her L3 average of 5.33 RPG that suggests either poor positioning or limited opportunities on the glass in this particular game. Her 12% usage rate and peripheral stats (3 ast, 2 tov in 24 min) indicate she was out of rhythm offensively and likely disengaged on the boards, making the over 4.5 an easy miss.
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 13.5 PTS30 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberCardoso shot 13-for-13 from the field (100% FG) for a historic 96% true shooting percentage, nearly tripling her season scoring average despite playing only 24 minutes—a game-specific shooting eruption that no pre-game model could reasonably project. The under was predicated on pace compression and her role as a secondary option, but perfect field-goal shooting at high volume (34% usage) overwhelmed both structural and volume assumptions.
- Bridget Carleton Under 12.5 PTS20 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberCarleton torched the line on elite free-throw shooting (8-8 FT), converting 40% of her total points from the stripe despite taking only 14 field-goal attempts; her 57% true shooting vastly exceeded her season baseline, turning a volume-neutral 29 minutes into an unexpectedly efficient scoring night that easily cleared the 12.5 under.
- Carla Leite Under 14.5 PTS18 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberLeite's 9-10 free-throw shooting (90% from the line) inflated her total well above her typical scoring profile—she attempted nearly as many FTs as field goals and converted at an elite rate that masked a below-average 40% from the field, suggesting aggressive fouling or an unusually favorable whistle in her 23 minutes kept her scoring efficient enough to clear 14.5 despite tepid shot-making.
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 12.5 PTS30 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso erupted for a perfect 13-13 FG night (100% from the field) on 34% usage, a historic efficiency outlier that no pre-game model could reasonably project; she nearly doubled her season scoring average despite playing only 24 minutes, well within her normal range.
- Azura Stevens Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberStevens played 28 minutes (matching her L3 average) but grabbed only 6 rebounds despite 10 FG attempts—a sharp drop from her 8.0 RPG streak (L5) driven by lower box-out opportunity and contested positioning on a night she prioritized assists (6) and perimeter shooting (3-6 3PT). The blowout margin (+23) likely limited offensive rebounding chances and end-of-game intensity that typically boosted her recent rebound totals.
WAS @ CON9–6+1.75u
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberOnyenwere managed just 2 rebounds despite 28 minutes of playing time, falling one short as a low-volume rebounder (16% usage) who struggled offensively (1-5 FG, 34% TS) and never established herself on the glass in a game where Washington's elite rebounding didn't create volume opportunities for role players.
- Brittney Griner Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberGriner played only 21 minutes—below her season average of 24.4 MPG—and picked up 5 fouls, which limited her floor time and rebounding opportunities in a game she was +11. At her per-minute rebound rate of ~0.21 RPG/min, 21 minutes projected to just 4.4 boards, making the 4.5 line impossible to hit despite a favorable matchup.
- Leila Lacan Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upLacan hit the over despite playing within her expected usage (24%), converting her opportunities efficiently (4-4 FT, 51% TS) and benefiting from a game script that stayed competitive (+13, 29 min)—she simply needed just one more assist than her seasonal average to clear 4.5, which happened with balanced playmaking across a full rotation. Washington's 8th-ranked assist-allowing defense (19.63 APG) proved less of a headwind than projected, and the conservative 3.53-assist diagnostic missed on the pace adjustment and game flow that allowed her to operate freely.
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere went 0-for-2 from three despite 28 minutes of run, falling well short of her 1.2 three-makes per game average; the bet missed due to uncharacteristic cold shooting (1-5 FG, 34% TS%) in a game where Connecticut's elite forward-position three-point defense (2.41 allows/game) held her without a single attempt beyond the arc in the second half.
- Georgia Amoore Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAmoore exceeded her adjusted projection of 2.7 assists by operating at elevated usage (20%, above her season 16.8%) in an uptempo game that ran counter to the pace-adjusted baseline, finishing with 5 assists on 33 minutes despite the slow-paced offensive environment that justified the under. The market's 4.5 line underestimated her playmaking impact in a faster-flowing contest than the pre-game pace metrics suggested.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 PTS12 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberNelson-Ododa exceeded expectations by playing 30 minutes—12 more than her season average—and efficiently converting 6-of-12 shots (50% FG) to reach 12 points, suggesting either elevated opportunity due to foul trouble elsewhere or a game flow that kept her on the floor longer than her typical backup role.
ATL @ GSV10–2+6.55u
- Jordin Canada Under 11.5 PTS23 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada torched the elite GSV guard defense with 7-11 FG and 3-3 from three, posting an unsustainable 84% TS% that shattered the expectation that league-leading perimeter D would suppress her well below her seasonal average. The 35 minutes and 22% usage rate were in line with projections, but her red-hot shooting efficiency—particularly from deep—turned a floor-level matchup into a ceiling performance.
- Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada shot 84% TS and scored 23 points on 22% usage, creating her own offense rather than facilitating; despite playing 35 minutes in a game that invited assists, she recorded just 2 dimes while turning the ball over 4 times, suggesting scorer's mentality over distributor's role.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.