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claude_combined
230–198 over 428 priced bets · -7.4u · ROI -1.7% -10.4% to +7.0% · CLV +0.12¢ -0.3% to +0.6%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
these are the claude_combined picks — the same set listed in the sheet below. The record in the header bar is a different formula, so the two totals will not match.
230–198 · 54% · −7.37u across these days · 5 voided, nothing staked
07/184–450%−0.48u3 games
POR @ MIN2–3−1.15u
- Sarah Ashlee Barker Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberBarker notched exactly 3 assists despite modest 22% usage, exceeding her season average of 2.3 and her L10 mean of 2.1—the under missed because she simply played efficient, higher-volume offensive minutes (30 min, 64% FG) that naturally generated more ball movement and playmaking opportunities than her recent baseline.
- Carla Leite Under 14.5 PTS21 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite shot an efficient 9-17 from the field and played a season-high 31 minutes—well above her recent 24.9 MPG average—enabling her to exceed the 14.5 line despite Minnesota's elite perimeter defense holding her to just 2-3 from the free-throw line.
- Sarah Ashlee Barker Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBarker played 30 minutes and shot efficiently (9-14 FG), but Minnesota's elite rebounding defense held her to just 4 boards—one short of the 4.5 line—as the Timberwolves limited her to a single offensive rebound and controlled the glass despite her usage rate.
WAS @ GSV1–1−0.27u
- Veronica Burton Under 10.5 PTS11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberBurton exceeded the 10.5 line by converting 50% from the field (4-8 FG) with efficient shooting at 62% TS despite modest 16% usage, and played 32 minutes in a blowout win (+16), allowing her to stay on the court and accumulate 11 points on limited volume rather than the projected 9.8.
NYL @ IND1–0+0.94u
07/1710–759%−0.11u4 games
CON @ PHO0–2−2.00u
- Monique Akoa Makani Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upDespite a season-low 20 minutes and invisible scoring (0-for-6), Akoa Makani still reached 4 assists on modest 19% usage, suggesting she maintained setup duties even in limited action and off-night shooting. Her recent L10 average of 2.3 assists underestimated her floor playmaking role, which proved resilient enough to clear 3.5 despite the offensive drought.
- Kahleah Copper Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCopper fell one rebound short despite 35 minutes and heavy usage (28%), finishing with only 3 boards as Phoenix's spacing and ball movement limited her offensive rebounding opportunities and she didn't crash the glass enough on a night when the team controlled pace.
ATL @ TOR2–3−1.67u
- Maria Conde Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberConde finished with just 4 rebounds despite 31 minutes and solid free-throw volume (8-9 FT), falling one board short; Atlanta's elite defensive rebounding (rank 1, 30.13 RPG allowed) clamped down on second-chance opportunities and limited her to the exact season-average mark that looked like an outlier against her recent L5 (6.2 RPG) and L10 (5.83 RPG) trends.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberHarrison fell short of the 5.5 rebound line despite a respectable 21 minutes and 50% FG, finishing with just 3 boards—likely a function of limited opportunity in a game where she wasn't the primary rebounder and recorded only 3 fouls, suggesting minimal aggressive interior presence or rebounding activity.
- Laura Juskaite Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberJuskaite played 28 minutes—within her recent range—but generated zero assists despite 4 turnovers, suggesting poor ball movement and decision-making rather than limited opportunity; she also shot just 50% TS, indicating inefficiency that likely limited her playmaking touches in the half-court.
LAS @ CHI1–2−1.40u
- Natasha Cloud Under 11.5 PTS15 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud exceeded her L10 average of 9.4 and the 11.5 line by posting 15 points on elite 69% true shooting, including 3-for-6 from three, while playing a full 32 minutes without foul trouble to constrain her opportunities.
- Natasha Cloud Under 5.5 AST9 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberCloud nearly doubled the target with 9 assists on a game-high 32 minutes and zero turnovers, functioning as the primary initiator in a blowout win (+11) where her efficiency (69% TS) kept the offense flowing without forcing shots.
SEA @ IND7–0+4.96u
07/165–183%+3.11u2 games
10226001831–0+0.57u
POR @ WAS4–1+2.53u
- Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCarleton's 11% usage rate and 26 minutes limited her rebounding opportunities despite solid floor time, and she finished one board short at 3 rebounds. The low offensive load—just 6 points on 6 shots—signaled a quiet night that didn't generate the glass touches needed to clear the 3.5 threshold.
07/154–640%−3.24u2 games
SEA @ CHI1–3−2.44u
- Natasha Cloud Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud exceeded the 10.5 line despite Seattle's elite perimeter defense (3rd in PPG allowed to guards) by executing at an elite 85% true shooting, including 2-for-3 from three and 5-for-6 from free throw, while playing a full 30 minutes at 16% usage. The combination of efficient shot-making and free-throw volume proved too much for the matchup-based under thesis.
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 15.5 PTS6 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman's 27% TS and 3-11 shooting (27% FG) represented a catastrophic collapse from her L10/L5 averages of 18.5–18.8 PPG, despite logging 30 minutes and maintaining her typical 18% usage rate. The offensive efficiency breakdown—compounded by 0-5 from three—overwhelmed volume to render the over unplayable.
- Natasha Cloud Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCloud exceeded the under threshold by a single assist despite modest 16% usage, generating 6 dimes in 30 minutes with efficient scoring (85% TS%) that kept her engaged in the offense—the sharp +130 value proved vulnerable to even slight playmaking variance in a close final tally.
GSV @ IND3–3−0.81u
- Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun played only 22 minutes and grabbed just 2 rebounds despite efficient scoring (4-7 FG), falling well short of the 3.5 rebound line—limited court time and low rebound volume (18% usage) were the primary culprits behind the miss.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMitchell fell just short despite 35 minutes of work, as Las Vegas's elite perimeter defense (allowing 31.3 PPG to guards, league's best) held her to 7-16 shooting (43.8%)—a significant dip from her 27.6 PPG average over her previous five games. The one-point miss came down to shot-making: she needed just 22 points to cash but couldn't overcome the cold shooting night against the WNBA's top-ranked defense.
- Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston fell just short of 8.5 rebounds with 7 boards in 25 minutes—a limited run that cut into rebounding opportunity despite solid 63% TS efficiency and 26% usage. Four fouls also likely caused her to play cautiously down the stretch, capping her exposure on the glass.
07/144–267%+1.17u2 games
WAS @ TOR2–1+0.50u
- Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarrison fell one rebound short despite 21 minutes and 26% usage; she fouled out with 6 PF late in the game, which limited her ability to crash the glass and secure the final board needed to clear 5.5.
POR @ CON2–1+0.67u
- Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton hit the over on a quiet scoring night (12 pts on 45% FG) by running the offense more than usual—her 3 assists matched her season-long average despite 18% usage, suggesting the ball moved through her hands even when her shot wasn't falling. She stayed on the floor for all 32 minutes with only minor foul trouble (3 PF), allowing the assists to accumulate at a rate above the 2.5 line.
07/135–456%+0.48u2 games
LAS @ ATL2–2−0.35u
- Erica Wheeler Under 9.5 PTS20 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler torched the under on a 50% FG night (8-16) and 59% true shooting—more than 20 percentage points above her season clip of 36.1%—while playing 32 minutes with elevated usage (27%), simply outgunning Atlanta's perimeter defense in a way her season averages (8.0 PPG, 7.7 L10) never suggested was likely.
- Ariel Atkins Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins exceeded the 10.5 line by converting 5-of-11 from the field (45% FG) and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF in 34 min), pushing her above recent trends despite a modest 18% usage rate and 0-3 three-point shooting. The recency fade proved vulnerable when her mid-range shot was falling and she stayed on the floor.
PHO @ MIN3–2+0.83u
- Olivia Miles Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberMiles stuffed the stat sheet with 8 assists on 38% usage and 31 minutes, exceeding her compressed projection (4.1) by leaning heavily into playmaking rather than her typical scoring load despite the blowout risk that was priced into the under. Phoenix's guard defense (rank 13 in assists allowed) proved neutral-to-permissive, and Miles's high usage rate translated into high-volume facilitation rather than the constrained role the under assumed.
- Kahleah Copper Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCopper's 3 rebounds fell short despite 32 minutes and elite 80% TS efficiency, as the Phoenix offense's pace and ball movement (1 assist, 26% usage) limited her individual rebounding opportunities compared to her L10 average of 5.2. Her scoring prowess (26 pts on 9-14 FG) came at the expense of the glass work needed to hit the over.
07/122–529%−3.56u4 games
NYL @ TOR0–4−4.00u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 17.5 PTS28 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under by shooting 9-18 from the field (50%) with a perfect 7-8 from the line for 65% true shooting, far exceeding the efficiency needed to clear 17.5 points in 33 minutes of play. Despite modest 26% usage, elite shot-making—particularly from three (3-7, 43%)—allowed her to reach 28 points on volume that should've landed comfortably under the number.
- Maria Conde Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upConde played 34 minutes and shot efficiently (63% TS), but her 16% usage rate—well below her season norm—limited her playmaking opportunities, and she recorded just 2 assists despite the extended floor time.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 16.5 PTS28 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under with efficient, high-volume scoring: 9-18 FG (50%), 3-7 from three, and 7-8 from the line (87.5% TS) across 33 minutes, nearly doubling the 16.5 projection despite a modest 26% usage rate that indicated she wasn't forced into volume.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 8 assists crushed the 5.5 line despite modest recent form, driven by elevated usage (26%) and a full 33 minutes that exceeded the pre-game projection, allowing her playmaking to flourish in a high-volume role. Toronto's neutral guard defense and Ionescu's aggressive shot creation (9-18 FG, 7-8 FT) created natural assist opportunities that our model—anchored to her 3.8-assist average over 10 games—failed to account for.
SEA @ WAS0–1−1.00u
- Shakira Austin Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberAustin played 33 minutes with high usage (30%) and elite scoring efficiency (64% TS%), but grabbed just 5 boards—a sharp departure from her L10 average of 10.2—suggesting opponent box-outs or a slower rebounding pace limited her glass work despite heavy offensive touches.
CHI @ DAL1–0+0.63u
IND @ LVA1–0+0.81u
07/114–180%+2.19u3 games
POR @ ATL1–0+0.65u
PHO @ LVA1–0+0.68u
NYL @ MIN2–1+0.87u
- Marine Johannes Under 6.5 PTS14 vs 6.5no clean explanationJohannes torched the line on 70% true shooting, going 5-10 from the field with 4-9 from three, a sharp departure from her recent L5 average of 4.6 points on much cooler efficiency. She also played 23 minutes—her highest in the recent sample—giving her more opportunities to exceed the 6.5-point threshold.
07/104–640%−3.01u3 games
CHI @ LAS0–4−4.00u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCardoso played 28 minutes (1.3 below her season average) and finished exactly at 8 rebounds, missing the over by one board despite efficient shooting (6-9 FG); the modest minutes and a -12 rating in a competitive game limited her rebounding volume despite facing a neutral matchup.
- Erica Wheeler Under 8.5 PTS15 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberWheeler's 75% true shooting on 10 field goal attempts—notably 3-for-6 from three—converted her modest 28 minutes and 18% usage into 15 points, well above the 8.5 line despite matching her pre-game per-minute pace. Her efficient off-ball role in a blowout win (+19) meant volume stayed contained but scoring efficiency spiked far above her recent 6.8 PPG average.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberWheeler exceeded her season L10 assist average (4.7) by operating as the primary ball-handler in a blowout win (+19), tallying 8 dimes across 28 minutes despite modest 18% usage. Her elevated assist total came from increased playmaking responsibility in a game flow that favored pace and spacing rather than the slower, isolation-heavy possessions that had limited her to sub-6 assist games in recent weeks.
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberHamby exceeded the 2.5 assist line by recording 3 dimes despite modest usage (22%), benefiting from 30 minutes of floor time and a +12 rating that suggests she operated in flow within a winning game script. The one extra assist came from solid playmaking efficiency rather than a dramatic uptick in ball-handling—she simply didn't turn it over (1 TOV) and stayed engaged throughout the full half-hour.
GSV @ CON3–2+0.27u
- Veronica Burton Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBurton's 6 assists came on an efficient 33-minute outing with elevated ball-handling responsibilities (22% usage), as she orchestrated the offense in a blowout win (+16) without foul trouble (4 PF) to slow her playmaking. The sharp under relied on lower usage and minutes, but game script and her role expansion pushed her to exactly one dime above the threshold.
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton torched the under by shooting 7-12 (58% FG) with efficient finishing at the rim, a dramatic spike from her 9.0 PPG L10 average and well above the 11.5 line despite modest 22% usage. Her 33 minutes and +16 rating indicated a blowout win where she didn't need high volume to exceed the projection.
DAL @ TOR1–0+0.71u
07/098–373%+3.10u3 games
LVA @ POR1–2−1.28u
- Megan Gustafson Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGustafson played just 26 minutes—below her typical run—and despite solid shooting efficiency (61% TS), she grabbed only 3 rebounds, falling short of her recent 4.5 L10 average due to limited opportunities and a blowout context (+7, low possessions).
- Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton delivered exactly one more assist than her 1.5 L10 average despite playing under her typical 31.2 min, aided by a game situation that likely generated more ball movement; her 20% usage and modest shooting efficiency (3-10 FG) meant she wasn't forcing playmaking, but the extra dime came through nonetheless.
SEA @ ATL4–1+1.87u
- Natisha Hiedeman Under 14.5 PTS20 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman shot 7-17 (41% FG) and 3-9 from three (33%) to reach 20 points—well above her season average of 15.4 and the model's 10.97 projection—despite playing in a controlled-pace game (99 possessions) that was supposed to suppress scoring. The over-lean the model flagged proved prescient; she simply got hot when the structural setup suggested compression.
IND @ PHO3–0+2.50u
07/084–544%−2.07u3 games
GSV @ TOR0–1−1.00u
- Veronica Burton Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberBurton hit the over despite playing just 21 minutes (below the projected 27.8) by operating at elite efficiency—she recorded 6 assists on only 1 turnover, generating 6 total plays that moved the ball, which overcame her reduced run and low usage rate to narrowly clear 5.5.
IND @ LAS3–3−0.90u
- Dearica Hamby Under 15.5 PTS21 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberHamby's efficient 8-15 shooting (53.3%) and 5-6 free-throw accuracy on 34 minutes of play pushed her well past the 15.5 line despite modest usage at 25%. The high field-goal percentage and volume from the line—rather than elevated shot attempts—was the key driver that made the under miss by 5.5 points.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded the 5.5 line by one assist (finished with 6) despite modest 29 minutes and 16% usage, hitting her recent L5 average of 5.2 and staying consistent with her tendency to operate as a primary ball-handler in limited floor time.
- Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 AST3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark was limited to just 16 minutes of play, slashing her usual volume in half—she averaged 8.2 assists over her last 10 games but had no opportunity to reach that pace in a game where she saw minimal court time. Four turnovers on only 9 points further constrained her assist opportunities despite maintaining elevated usage at 40%.
MIN @ CON1–1−0.17u
- Courtney Williams Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberWilliams exceeded her recent trend (L10: 3.9 APG) by distributing the ball at a higher rate tonight, finishing with 7 assists on 28% usage and 30 minutes—a marked uptick from her pattern of rarely hitting the over on this line.
07/0715–288%+11.02u2 games
CHI @ PHO7–2+3.79u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB4 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso played 28 minutes but crashed hard on the boards with just 4 rebounds, a sharp drop from her L5 average of 9.6—likely due to increased competition for glass or poor positioning despite solid shot-blocking activity (4 blocks).
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 AST5 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberThomas played 31 minutes with 23% usage and committed 5 turnovers, disrupting her playmaking rhythm and reducing her touches in Phoenix's offense. Despite solid efficiency (55% TS), the low volume and turnover issues prevented her from reaching the 8.5 assist threshold, finishing at just 5 dimes.
DAL @ NYL8–0+7.23u
07/0611–1052%−0.41u2 games
CON @ MIN4–8−4.40u
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upDespite the defensive grind predicted—MIN's elite 97.3 DRTG and CON's turnover issues did materialize (2 TOs in 28 min)—Leger-Walker's 5 assists came from steady floor time (28 min, 16% usage) and efficient playmaking that overcame the projected pace suppression. The model's 2.05 projection underweighted her ability to generate assists even in a slower, defensive-minded game, and the under's reliance on sub-3.6 assist production proved too tight a margin.
- Nia Coffey Over 6.5 REB4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCoffey's historically poor shooting night (0-6 FG, 15% TS) limited her floor time to just 20 minutes and tanked her usage to 15%, leaving her well short of the 6.5 rebound threshold despite Connecticut's weak rebounding defense.
- Courtney Williams Under 18.5 PTS23 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded her recent scoring averages (14.0 L10, 13.4 L5) by playing 36 minutes—seven more than her seasonal baseline—and shot an efficient 47.6% from the field to reach 23 points. Her elevated usage (28%) and elite true shooting (55%) on a game where she stayed out of foul trouble (3 PF) flipped what had been a reliable under into a miss.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 PTS10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberNelson-Ododa got 29 minutes in a close game (no blowout discount applied), and despite facing Minnesota's elite interior defense, converted 4-of-6 from the field for efficient scoring that pushed her to 10 points—just enough to clear the 9.5 line that had priced in both pace slowdown and defensive matchup risk.
- Brittney Griner Under 11.5 PTS29 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberGriner torched the elite MIN interior defense with 11-14 shooting (78.6% FG) and 7-11 from the line for 29 points—nearly 2.5x her season average—despite playing just 34 minutes, as Minnesota's vaunted paint defense had no answer for her efficiency and touch around the rim.
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (69% TS on 25% usage), held back by just 26 minutes of playing time and five personal fouls that limited her availability on the glass.
SEA @ LAS7–2+3.99u
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike hit the over with 3 assists despite playing only 28 minutes in a low-possession game (82 total), as her 26% usage rate concentrated her involvement enough to exceed the 2.5 threshold in limited action. The compressed pace that was projected as a headwind proved immaterial when she maintained her playmaking touches in the minutes she did see.
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberJohnson fell one rebound short despite heavy usage (38%) and solid scoring efficiency, held back by limited floor time at 27 minutes and the game's blowout nature (+15, likely reducing rebounding opportunities in garbage time).
07/059–6 ·1 void60%+1.41u2 games
IND @ LVA4–4−0.61u
- Sophie Cunningham Under 1.5 3PM3 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberCunningham went 3-for-5 from three despite modest 21 minutes and 15% usage, hitting at an elite 60% clip from deep that matched her season rate rather than the depressed L5 average of 1.4 makes. The under needed her to regress to recent form, but she instead shot efficiently enough in limited volume to clear the line.
- Jewell Loyd Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberLoyd elevated her three-point volume to 5 attempts (vs. her recent 3.4 average) and converted 2 of them despite Indiana's elite perimeter defense, pushing usage to 21%—well above her season 14.25% baseline—in 32 minutes of extended run. The uptick in shot diet and opportunity proved enough to clear the 1.5 threshold, even as her overall efficiency dipped to 54% TS.
- Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 AST6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray fell one assist short despite playing 31 minutes, hampered by poor shot creation (2-11 FG, 25% usage) that limited her ability to generate helper opportunities in a low-pace environment. Her recent L5 average of 7.6 assists didn't materialize without the offensive rhythm to set up teammates.
- Lexie Hull Under 7.5 PTS10 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberHull's recent form (5.6 ppg L10, 4.8 ppg L5) suggested a fade, but she stayed on the court for 22 minutes with elevated 23% usage and converted 50% of her shots, enough to clear 7.5 despite cool 5-10 FG efficiency.
DAL @ TOR5–2 ·1 void+2.02u
- Nyara Sabally Under 11.5 PTS14 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberSabally exceeded her pace-adjusted projection (7.41 pts) by shooting an efficient 6-10 from the field despite minimal usage, converting 60% of her attempts on 20% USG to reach 14 points. Her elite 62% true shooting—well above her season rate—was the decisive factor that pushed her past the 11.5 line despite lower volume than her season average.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison fell short despite her recent form and solid 27 minutes, as she grabbed only 5 rebounds—a significant dip from her L5 average of 7.4 RPG, likely due to limited offensive opportunities (24% usage, 5-10 FG) and a lopsided game flow (-13 +/-) that reduced rebound chances.
07/044–1029%−7.02u2 games
POR @ SEA3–6−3.81u
- Jade Melbourne Over 17.5 PRA8 vs 17.5no clean explanationMelbourne's 18 minutes and 9% usage—well below her season baseline—combined with foul trouble (5 PF) to limit her volume, while her 5 points couldn't compensate on a night she failed to approach her recent assist average of 5.2 per game (finished with 2).
- Awa Fam Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberFam finished with just 3 rebounds despite playing 34 minutes—well below her season average of 5.2—as she struggled offensively (4-15 FG, 26.7%) and failed to crash the glass effectively in a low-efficiency outing.
- Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberMalonga played just 19 minutes—well below her season average of 26 MPG and recent 28.7 MPG—limiting her rebounding volume despite an efficient 55% TS and 51% usage rate. The reduced playing time, likely due to early foul trouble (3 PF), proved to be the decisive factor in falling short of 8.5 boards.
- Bridget Carleton Under 13.5 PTS14 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton barely cleared the line despite inefficient 4-14 shooting (29% FG), leaning heavily on 5-6 free-throw shooting to reach 14 points—she compensated for poor field-goal volume with perfect accuracy from the stripe in a game that played to script with the low 167.5 total.
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman fell one assist short despite 34 minutes and solid efficiency (56% TS), held back by 4 turnovers and a modest 22% usage rate that limited her playmaking opportunities even in a high-pace game.
- Megan Gustafson Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGustafson attempted only 4 threes despite playing 28 minutes—well below the 3–4 projected launch rate—and connected on just 1, likely due to reduced offensive usage (11%) in a game where Seattle's elite perimeter defense (0.47 threes allowed to wings) successfully limited her volume.
GSV @ ATL1–4−3.21u
- Allisha Gray Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberGray's 11-16 free-throw shooting (nearly 69% of her points) carried her past 17.5 despite a poor 5-17 field-goal night, as she drew fouls aggressively and converted from the line to overcome Las Vegas's elite perimeter defense.
- Gabby Williams Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberWilliams torched the under on elite 66% true shooting (7-14 FG, 4-8 from three) and 24% usage in 27 minutes, converting at a rate well above her season average despite the pace-corrected projection of 10.6 PPG. The ATL defense's vulnerability to forwards combined with her hot hand overwhelmed the glacial-tempo thesis that anchored the under.
- Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun played only 20 minutes, two fewer than anticipated, and grabbed just 2 rebounds despite efficient scoring (5-9 FG), suggesting limited opportunity and activity on the glass fell short of her L5 average of 4.4. The under-20-minute allocation was the primary constraint on reaching 3.5 boards.
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS21 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton shot 84% true shooting (6-9 FG, 2-3 3PT, 7-8 FT) and played 30 minutes with elite efficiency, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line despite modest 24% usage. The bet required her to stay under 12 points—a threshold she obliterated on just nine field-goal attempts thanks to near-perfect shooting and free-throw volume (8 attempts).
07/033–1121%−8.29u2 games
MIN @ NYL1–7−6.24u
- Kayla McBride Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (7-16 FG, 56% TS), as 33 minutes of heavy usage (24%) at high volume gave her enough shot attempts to clear 15.5 even without a hot night. The under's -128 sharp consensus underestimated her floor role and available playing time in a blowout loss.
- Nia Coffey Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberCoffey fell one rebound short despite getting her expected 28 minutes, held back by a dismal 2-11 shooting night (18% FG) that limited her overall involvement and floor time around the rim where she typically crashes for boards.
- Breanna Stewart Under 19.5 PTS36 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart torched the elite Minnesota defense with 14-19 shooting (74% FG) and 6-6 from the line, posting a scorching 83% true shooting that completely negated the defensive matchup advantage that grounded the under thesis. Her 36 minutes and 34% usage meant she was the focal point of the offense, and Minnesota's typically stout forward defense had no answer for her efficiency.
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played her projected 31 minutes but fell one rebound short, held back by a -23 rating and foul trouble (4 PF) that likely limited her aggressive rebounding activity despite normal opportunity.
- Courtney Williams Under 15.5 PTS16 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under on efficient shooting (7-13 FG, 62% TS) despite playing only 24 minutes—well below the 30.4 expected, meaning she needed just one extra made field goal to clear 15.5 on limited volume. The pace-adjusted model failed to account for her elite shot-making in compressed minutes, as she generated 16 points on 25% usage in fewer possessions than projected.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberIonescu exceeded her recent assist average (3.6 per game L5/L10) by recording 6 dimes in 35 minutes, a season-high assist total that reflected increased playmaking opportunities in a blowout win (+18). Despite the modest 21% usage rate, she converted opportunities more freely than her pre-game profile suggested, pushing her over the 4.5 threshold.
CHI @ LVA2–4−2.05u
- Chelsea Gray Over 7.5 AST6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's usage rate dropped to 25% (below her 18.37% season average) and she recorded only 6 assists despite playing 41 minutes, suggesting Chicago's elite perimeter defense (rank 2 in assists allowed to guards) successfully limited her creation opportunities and forced a more isolation-heavy offensive approach.
- Jewell Loyd Under 9.5 PTS19 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberLoyd exploded well above her 7.3 season PPG average by playing 39 minutes (12 more than her season average) and shooting an efficient 6-13 FG with 3-9 from three, nearly doubling her typical usage rate to 19% in a game that didn't experience the projected -16.6% pace slowdown. The extended run and hot shooting on elevated volume—not a matchup collapse—drove her to 19 points.
- NaLyssa Smith Under 12.5 PTS29 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberSmith erupted far above her depressed 5-game average (8.0 PPG) by shooting an elite 11-14 FG (79% TS) over 34 minutes with 27% usage, completely overriding the defensive matchup thesis that grounded the under at 12.5.
- Sydney Taylor Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberTaylor shot just 1-for-5 from three on 19% usage, finishing well short of the 2.1 makes needed; the combination of limited volume and poor efficiency (20% 3PT) made the over untenable despite her 26-minute floor time.
07/0214–478%+8.05u3 games
DAL @ CON6–3+1.94u
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker doubled her projection by shooting an efficient 5-8 from the field (62.5%) and staying on the floor for a full 30 minutes, well above typical benchmarks for a role player with 15% usage. The combination of elite shooting efficiency and extended playing time transformed what looked like a safe under into a decisive miss.
- Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 REB6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard managed only 6 rebounds in 30 minutes despite solid shooting (60% TS), falling well short of her season 11.5 RPG average—a combination of limited floor time and a notably quiet rebounding performance that didn't materialize against a soft matchup.
- Diamond Miller Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5paid over the fair numberMiller went 0-for-1 from three and shot just 15% TS on low volume (1-6 FG in 22 min), suggesting limited offensive rhythm rather than aggressive three-point hunting despite the usage rate supporting shot attempts.
SEA @ PHO4–1+2.66u
- Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberMalonga fell short of 8.5 rebounds despite her recent uptick in rebounding rate, as she logged just 21 minutes—well below the 30-minute threshold where her high-volume rebounding typically materializes—while shooting 2-for-11 and accumulating 3 fouls that likely limited her floor time and rebounding opportunities.
ATL @ WAS4–0+3.45u
06/306–460%+1.04u1 game
LVA @ NYL6–4+1.04u
- Breanna Stewart Under 19.5 PTS25 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart torched the under with a 9-16 FG night (56.3%), converting 7-of-9 free throws for 63% true shooting—well above her season baseline—while maintaining elevated usage (29%) over a full 35 minutes without foul trouble (2 PF), allowing her to sustain volume and efficiency simultaneously.
- Chelsea Gray Over 7.5 AST7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGray fell just short despite her 36 minutes and stable role, as a brutal 3-12 shooting night (25% FG) and five turnovers limited her offensive efficiency and rhythm—the cold shooting forced her teammates to generate offense independently rather than capitalize on her playmaking opportunities.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded her recent assist average (3.4 over L10) by getting extended run in a blowout win (+19, 31 minutes) where elevated usage (33%) and offensive opportunities created more kick-out situations than her recent norm. The sharp model's recency concern was valid, but a game script favoring ball movement in a rout proved the decisive factor.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS26 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 9-19 FG and 5-13 3PT shooting (47% from three) far exceeded her recent form, and at 33% usage she took enough volume to capitalize on her hot stroke despite playing only 31 minutes. Her last 10 games averaging 10.7 points proved misleading when she flipped the switch to 63% true shooting efficiency.
06/2819–1753%−0.64u4 games
LVA @ CHI5–5−0.74u
- Jewell Loyd Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd hit 2-of-7 from three despite limited offensive role (11% usage, 28 min), matching her recent L5 average of 2.6 threes per game and overcoming Chicago's elite perimeter defense that was supposed to suppress her volume.
- Azura Stevens Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStevens played 30 minutes—slightly above her season average—but came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (8-14 FG), suggesting her offensive load limited her glass work in a game where she may have had fewer second-chance opportunities or defensive rebounding chances.
- Chelsea Gray Under 7.5 AST8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGray exceeded the 7.5 assist line despite a slow-pace game environment (35 min, 18% usage) by operating as the primary creator in a competitive contest—she recorded 8 assists on efficient decision-making, hitting the over by a single assist in a matchup where the pre-game pace adjustment had compressed her baseline projection too aggressively.
- Jackie Young Under 17.5 PTS28 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberYoung exploded to 28 points on elite efficiency (9-14 FG, 4-6 3PT, 6-6 FT, 84% TS) in 36 minutes, nearly doubling her season average and far outpacing the 17.5 line; she shot the ball with rare accuracy across all three levels rather than operating as the secondary scorer the pre-game thesis anticipated.
- A'ja Wilson Under 25.5 PTS30 vs 25.5paid over the fair numberWilson's elite efficiency—71% TS on 33% usage and 8-14 FG—overwhelmed the pace-compression thesis; she also stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF in 34 min), preserving high-volume scoring opportunities that the pre-game model had discounted. The matchup advantage against CHI's weak forward defense (27.78 PPG allowed) ultimately outweighed the structural pace suppressors baked into the 178.5 total.
MIN @ DAL5–5−0.74u
- Nia Coffey Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationDespite 34 minutes and elevated usage opportunities, Coffey recorded only 2 assists—a significant miss from her L10 average of 3.1—due to a ball-dominant role that prioritized her scoring (9 points on 7 FGA) over playmaking in the offense.
- Olivia Miles Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberMiles exceeded her recent 4.8 AST average with 8 dimes on elevated 34 minutes and 28% usage, getting out in transition and running pick-and-roll actions at a higher rate than the L5 trend suggested. The pace-adjusted projection of 4.3 AST proved too conservative; she was genuinely more aggressive with the ball and the game flow favored her playmaking.
- Kayla McBride Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberMcBride fell short with just 2 assists despite heavy minutes (38) and solid scoring (17 pts on 52% TS), as the game's pace and ball movement didn't generate the assist opportunities needed to clear 2.5. Her 20% usage rate, while efficient, limited her playmaking volume—she took shots rather than creating them, finishing with 1 turnover in 38 minutes of floor time.
- Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upDespite 36 minutes and strong individual scoring (25 pts on 68% TS), Bueckers fell one assist short at 4, likely constrained by Connecticut's balanced offensive attack and her 26% usage rate—below her season norms—which limited playmaking opportunities despite the extended floor time.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale's historically poor 1-9 shooting (11% FG) and 19% usage rate left her unable to generate offensive flow or create opportunities for teammates, resulting in zero assists despite 26 minutes of play.
NYL @ GSV6–5−0.04u
- Pauline Astier Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDespite facing the league's toughest assist defense, Astier reached 4 assists on just 23 minutes and 15% usage—she simply didn't need high volume to hit the over, converting opportunities efficiently in limited playing time. The blowout nature and her 4 personal fouls appeared to constrain her run, yet she still cleared the line by a single assist.
- Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (85% TS) because she logged only 27 minutes—2–3 below typical—likely due to foul trouble (4 PF), which limited her rebounding volume even in a neutral matchup environment.
- Breanna Stewart Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart played just 26 minutes (6 fewer than her recent average) and recorded zero assists despite 35% usage, suggesting the offensive flow ran through other creators rather than her playmaking. Her 3 turnovers and 3 personal fouls limited her impact as a facilitator on a night when the team's ball movement didn't funnel through the forward.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberFiebich played 31 minutes but took only 4 total field-goal attempts (7% usage), missing her lone three-point try; the efficient scoring (3-4 FG, 75% TS%) came entirely from two-pointers, defying her recent L5 average of 2.8 threes despite elevated playing time.
- Veronica Burton Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberBurton's assist total jumped significantly above her L10 average of 4.5, partly due to elevated usage (13%) and a team-high 27 minutes in a blowout win (+25), which gave her more ball-handling opportunities than the modest -1.0 gap from pre-game suggested.
POR @ WAS3–2+0.88u
- Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton fell one rebound short despite 51 minutes and stable season form (3.6 RPG average), as Washington's elite rebounding defense (12.29 RPG allowed to forwards, 2nd in league) made good on their defensive rebounding opportunities and limited second-chance situations. Her 16% usage rate and limited opportunities in a close game (+/- of -1) compounded the shortfall from her 3.8 RPG recent average.
- Shakira Austin Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin's 6 assists doubled the 2.5 line, driven by a season-high 47 minutes of floor time that inflated her opportunity to facilitate—she averaged 0.128 assists per minute, well above her typical rate. The blowout nature of the game and her extended run kept her on court as a floor-spacing rim-runner rather than forcing early exit via foul trouble (just 1 PF).
06/2720–1656%+0.67u3 games
PHO @ TOR3–5−2.52u
- Noemie Brochant Over 4.5 AST2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBrochant finished with just 2 assists despite playing 28 minutes because her usage collapsed to 7%—less than half her season average—leaving her with minimal ball-handling opportunities despite the favorable matchup. The recent uptrend in her L3/L5 assist averages failed to materialize, suggesting the role expansion that drove those numbers either didn't persist or was countered by Toronto's defensive execution.
- Nyara Sabally Under 11.5 PTS14 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally shot 5-10 from the field (50%) with efficient 2-3 three-point shooting, exceeding her season efficiency and pushing her over the 11.5 line despite playing just 26 minutes on moderate 26% usage. The combination of hot shooting and full playing time (no early foul trouble despite finishing with 5 fouls) proved enough to beat the under.
- Nyara Sabally Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberSabally fell one rebound short despite solid scoring (14 pts on 57% TS%), held back by just 26 minutes and a marginal 5.6 rebound rate that couldn't overcome the thin 4.5 line with Pinnacle's 50.4% fair probability.
- Julie Allemand Under 6.5 AST10 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand's 10 assists crushed the under despite her modest 10% usage, powered by a season-high 39 minutes—well above her 26.5-minute L5 average—that gave her significantly more opportunities to facilitate. She was aggressive early and the game script allowed her to operate in a rhythm, converting her elevated floor time into assist volume that swamped the 6.5 threshold.
- Lexi Held Under 9.5 PTS16 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberHeld nearly tripled her season average (16 pts vs. 5.0 L10) by playing 30 minutes—14.5 more than her pre-game baseline—and shot efficiently at 65% TS% on elevated 22% usage. The combination of extended playing time and hot shooting (5-11 FG, 3-6 3PT) made the under an easy miss.
ATL @ SEA7–5+0.90u
- Rhyne Howard Over 4.5 REB0 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberHoward played 38 minutes but pulled down zero rebounds despite her recent 5.2 RPG average, an anomalous performance that fell well short of the 4.5 line regardless of Seattle's soft frontcourt defense. The miss appears to be a one-off statistical outlier rather than a usage or playing-time issue, as she logged nearly her season average in minutes and maintained strong scoring efficiency (74% TS).
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 11.5 PTS24 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberJohnson's exceptional 75% FG efficiency (9-12) and high free-throw volume (4-5 FT) overwhelmed the low-scoring game environment, as she converted at elite rates despite the expected pace constraints and managed to stay on the floor for 33 minutes without foul trouble. The under was predicated on a sluggish offensive pace and limited opportunities, but Johnson's 25% usage rate translated to outsized scoring efficiency rather than reduced shot volume.
- Rhyne Howard Under 18.5 PTS27 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward torched the under on elite efficiency, shooting 10-17 from the field (58.8%) and 4-10 from three (40%) while playing all 38 minutes—well above her typical volume and without foul trouble to limit her role.
- Awa Fam Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberFam played 28 minutes and took just 9 shots despite her 117% TS%, logging limited volume work that left her one rebound short; the box score suggests she was deployed primarily as a scorer rather than a rebounder, with just 1 board despite the minutes and playing time available.
- Angel Reese Over 11.5 REB9 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberReese fell two rebounds short despite playing 32 minutes and maintaining solid efficiency (57% TS%), suggesting the under simply caught a night where her rebounding volume didn't match her season L10 average of 12.2—she grabbed just 9 boards in a game Chicago lost by 10, limiting second-chance opportunities.
LAS @ IND10–6+2.30u
- Raven Johnson Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationJohnson's 4 assists came on just 21 minutes and 10% usage, a modest volume that still proved sufficient to clear the 3.5 line—she hit the over despite low opportunity, suggesting the under was indeed mispriced at the sharp's +EV threshold.
- Aliyah Boston Over 9.5 REB7 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberBoston's elite 98% true shooting and 5-6 field goal efficiency left little opportunity for offensive rebounding activity, and her 21 minutes—likely managed due to the team's +23 blowout margin—fell short of the volume needed to hit the 9.5 board threshold.
- Dearica Hamby Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHamby hit the over by just one assist despite a modest 26 minutes and 29% usage, as her playmaking simply outpaced the recent L10 average of 1.3 that heavily discounted the 3.5 line. The gap between her season trend and the betting line proved too large to overcome on a single game.
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby exceeded her season assist average (1.3 L10, 1.6 L5) by posting 4 dimes in 26 minutes, doubling her typical playmaking output despite modest 29% usage and a lopsided -37 +/- in a blowout loss.
- Dearica Hamby Over 7.5 REB4 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby was limited to 26 minutes and fouled out with 6 personals, sapping her opportunity for boards; she also faced a -37 rating in a blowout loss that shifted pace away from grinding rebounding situations.
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberOgwumike fell one rebound short despite solid shooting (7-13 FG), undone by a 6-minute reduction in playing time (26 min vs. her 32.1 pregame average) that limited her rebounding opportunities.
06/2621–1657%+1.82u3 games
POR @ CHI2–8−6.47u
- Gabriela Jaquez Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberJaquez played her typical 24 minutes but crashed to just 1 rebound despite the neutral matchup, a dramatic collapse from her L3 average of 5.33 RPG that suggests either poor positioning or limited opportunities on the glass in this particular game. Her 12% usage rate and peripheral stats (3 ast, 2 tov in 24 min) indicate she was out of rhythm offensively and likely disengaged on the boards, making the over 4.5 an easy miss.
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 13.5 PTS30 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberCardoso shot 13-for-13 from the field (100% FG) for a historic 96% true shooting percentage, nearly tripling her season scoring average despite playing only 24 minutes—a game-specific shooting eruption that no pre-game model could reasonably project. The under was predicated on pace compression and her role as a secondary option, but perfect field-goal shooting at high volume (34% usage) overwhelmed both structural and volume assumptions.
- Bridget Carleton Under 12.5 PTS20 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberCarleton torched the line on elite free-throw shooting (8-8 FT), converting 40% of her total points from the stripe despite taking only 14 field-goal attempts; her 57% true shooting vastly exceeded her season baseline, turning a volume-neutral 29 minutes into an unexpectedly efficient scoring night that easily cleared the 12.5 under.
- Carla Leite Under 14.5 PTS18 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberLeite's 9-10 free-throw shooting (90% from the line) inflated her total well above her typical scoring profile—she attempted nearly as many FTs as field goals and converted at an elite rate that masked a below-average 40% from the field, suggesting aggressive fouling or an unusually favorable whistle in her 23 minutes kept her scoring efficient enough to clear 14.5 despite tepid shot-making.
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 12.5 PTS30 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso erupted for a perfect 13-13 FG night (100% from the field) on 34% usage, a historic efficiency outlier that no pre-game model could reasonably project; she nearly doubled her season scoring average despite playing only 24 minutes, well within her normal range.
- Azura Stevens Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberStevens played 28 minutes (matching her L3 average) but grabbed only 6 rebounds despite 10 FG attempts—a sharp drop from her 8.0 RPG streak (L5) driven by lower box-out opportunity and contested positioning on a night she prioritized assists (6) and perimeter shooting (3-6 3PT). The blowout margin (+23) likely limited offensive rebounding chances and end-of-game intensity that typically boosted her recent rebound totals.
WAS @ CON9–6+1.75u
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberOnyenwere managed just 2 rebounds despite 28 minutes of playing time, falling one short as a low-volume rebounder (16% usage) who struggled offensively (1-5 FG, 34% TS) and never established herself on the glass in a game where Washington's elite rebounding didn't create volume opportunities for role players.
- Brittney Griner Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberGriner played only 21 minutes—below her season average of 24.4 MPG—and picked up 5 fouls, which limited her floor time and rebounding opportunities in a game she was +11. At her per-minute rebound rate of ~0.21 RPG/min, 21 minutes projected to just 4.4 boards, making the 4.5 line impossible to hit despite a favorable matchup.
- Leila Lacan Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upLacan hit the over despite playing within her expected usage (24%), converting her opportunities efficiently (4-4 FT, 51% TS) and benefiting from a game script that stayed competitive (+13, 29 min)—she simply needed just one more assist than her seasonal average to clear 4.5, which happened with balanced playmaking across a full rotation. Washington's 8th-ranked assist-allowing defense (19.63 APG) proved less of a headwind than projected, and the conservative 3.53-assist diagnostic missed on the pace adjustment and game flow that allowed her to operate freely.
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere went 0-for-2 from three despite 28 minutes of run, falling well short of her 1.2 three-makes per game average; the bet missed due to uncharacteristic cold shooting (1-5 FG, 34% TS%) in a game where Connecticut's elite forward-position three-point defense (2.41 allows/game) held her without a single attempt beyond the arc in the second half.
- Georgia Amoore Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAmoore exceeded her adjusted projection of 2.7 assists by operating at elevated usage (20%, above her season 16.8%) in an uptempo game that ran counter to the pace-adjusted baseline, finishing with 5 assists on 33 minutes despite the slow-paced offensive environment that justified the under. The market's 4.5 line underestimated her playmaking impact in a faster-flowing contest than the pre-game pace metrics suggested.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 PTS12 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberNelson-Ododa exceeded expectations by playing 30 minutes—12 more than her season average—and efficiently converting 6-of-12 shots (50% FG) to reach 12 points, suggesting either elevated opportunity due to foul trouble elsewhere or a game flow that kept her on the floor longer than her typical backup role.
ATL @ GSV10–2+6.55u
- Jordin Canada Under 11.5 PTS23 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada torched the elite GSV guard defense with 7-11 FG and 3-3 from three, posting an unsustainable 84% TS% that shattered the expectation that league-leading perimeter D would suppress her well below her seasonal average. The 35 minutes and 22% usage rate were in line with projections, but her red-hot shooting efficiency—particularly from deep—turned a floor-level matchup into a ceiling performance.
- Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada shot 84% TS and scored 23 points on 22% usage, creating her own offense rather than facilitating; despite playing 35 minutes in a game that invited assists, she recorded just 2 dimes while turning the ball over 4 times, suggesting scorer's mentality over distributor's role.
06/257–7 ·1 void50%−1.61u3 games
DAL @ LVA2–3−1.63u
- Paige Bueckers Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
NYL @ SEA4–4 ·1 void−0.99u
- Leonie Fiebich Under 9.5 PTS19 vs 9.5paid over the fair number
- Pauline Astier Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 10.5 PTS28 vs 10.5paid over the fair number
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
LAS @ TOR1–0+1.01u
06/2415–1747%−4.86u4 games
PHO @ IND2–6−4.31u
- Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 AST8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- DeWanna Bonner Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5paid over the fair number
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 AST8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Lexie Hull Under 5.5 PTS9 vs 5.5no clean explanation
- Kahleah Copper Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
MIN @ WAS5–4−0.65u
- Nia Coffey Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natasha Howard Under 15.5 PTS21 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kayla McBride Under 14.5 PTS19 vs 14.5paid over the fair number
POR @ CHI3–3−0.45u
- Gabriela Jaquez Under 9.5 PTS10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Azura Stevens Under 10.5 PTS11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Megan Gustafson Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
ATL @ GSV5–4+0.55u
- Janelle Salaun Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5paid over the fair number
- Kayla Thornton Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Veronica Burton Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 6.5 AST2 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
06/205–456%+0.71u1 game
IND @ ATL5–4+0.71u
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 PTS16 vs 19.5no clean explanation
- Aliyah Boston Over 17.5 PTS13 vs 17.5no clean explanation
- Angel Reese Over 11.5 REB8 vs 11.5no clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Under 20.5 PTS26 vs 20.5no clean explanation
06/181–614%−5.15u1 game
ATL @ IND1–6−5.15u
- Angel Reese Over 12.5 REB11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Sophie Cunningham Under 8.5 PTS12 vs 8.5no clean explanation
- Lexie Hull Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 REB8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 AST7 vs 8.5no clean explanation
06/1710–9 ·1 void53%−0.37u5 games
NYL @ CHI2–5−3.41u
- Gabriela Jaquez Under 8.5 PTS22 vs 8.5no clean explanation
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 4.5 AST1 vs 4.5no clean explanation
- Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Jonquel Jones Under 13.5 PTS19 vs 13.5no clean explanation
- Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanation
SEA @ POR0–1−1.00u
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
DAL @ GSV1–2−1.00u
- Gabby Williams Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Paige Bueckers Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5no clean explanation
MIN @ LAS3–1 ·1 void+1.65u
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 9.5 REB8 vs 9.5no clean explanation
WAS @ CON4–0+3.39u
06/163–260%+0.40u1 game
TOR @ IND3–2+0.40u
- Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 PTS24 vs 7.5no clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Under 8.5 AST14 vs 8.5no clean explanation
06/1512–1055%+0.07u3 games
LAS @ GSV1–3−2.24u
- Cecilia Zandalasini Under 7.5 PTS10 vs 7.5no clean explanation
- Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5no clean explanation
- Janelle Salaun Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
POR @ MIN5–4+0.50u
- Carla Leite Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Nia Coffey Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Nia Coffey Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTS12 vs 17.5no clean explanation
LVA @ DAL6–3+1.81u
- Chelsea Gray Under 6.5 AST9 vs 6.5no clean explanation
- NaLyssa Smith Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS18 vs 25.5no clean explanation
06/071–3 ·2 void25%−1.77u2 games
POR @ LAS0–2−2.00u
- Carla Leite Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kelsey Plum Over 20.5 PTS16 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
CHI @ TOR1–1 ·2 void+0.23u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 9.5 REB8 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.