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WNBA 2025–26: 134–82 ATS · +37.4u
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← claude_combined · WNBA

2026-06-28

Day by day

these are the claude_combined picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.

19–17 · 53% · −0.64u across the last 1 days

06/2819–1753%−0.64u4 games

permalink to 2026-06-28 →

LVA @ CHI5–5−0.74u
  • Jewell Loyd Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd hit 2-of-7 from three despite limited offensive role (11% usage, 28 min), matching her recent L5 average of 2.6 threes per game and overcoming Chicago's elite perimeter defense that was supposed to suppress her volume.
  • Azura Stevens Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStevens played 30 minutes—slightly above her season average—but came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (8-14 FG), suggesting her offensive load limited her glass work in a game where she may have had fewer second-chance opportunities or defensive rebounding chances.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 7.5 AST8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGray exceeded the 7.5 assist line despite a slow-pace game environment (35 min, 18% usage) by operating as the primary creator in a competitive contest—she recorded 8 assists on efficient decision-making, hitting the over by a single assist in a matchup where the pre-game pace adjustment had compressed her baseline projection too aggressively.
  • Jackie Young Under 17.5 PTS28 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberYoung exploded to 28 points on elite efficiency (9-14 FG, 4-6 3PT, 6-6 FT, 84% TS) in 36 minutes, nearly doubling her season average and far outpacing the 17.5 line; she shot the ball with rare accuracy across all three levels rather than operating as the secondary scorer the pre-game thesis anticipated.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 25.5 PTS30 vs 25.5paid over the fair numberWilson's elite efficiency—71% TS on 33% usage and 8-14 FG—overwhelmed the pace-compression thesis; she also stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF in 34 min), preserving high-volume scoring opportunities that the pre-game model had discounted. The matchup advantage against CHI's weak forward defense (27.78 PPG allowed) ultimately outweighed the structural pace suppressors baked into the 178.5 total.
MIN @ DAL5–5−0.74u
  • Nia Coffey Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationDespite 34 minutes and elevated usage opportunities, Coffey recorded only 2 assists—a significant miss from her L10 average of 3.1—due to a ball-dominant role that prioritized her scoring (9 points on 7 FGA) over playmaking in the offense.
  • Olivia Miles Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberMiles exceeded her recent 4.8 AST average with 8 dimes on elevated 34 minutes and 28% usage, getting out in transition and running pick-and-roll actions at a higher rate than the L5 trend suggested. The pace-adjusted projection of 4.3 AST proved too conservative; she was genuinely more aggressive with the ball and the game flow favored her playmaking.
  • Kayla McBride Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberMcBride fell short with just 2 assists despite heavy minutes (38) and solid scoring (17 pts on 52% TS), as the game's pace and ball movement didn't generate the assist opportunities needed to clear 2.5. Her 20% usage rate, while efficient, limited her playmaking volume—she took shots rather than creating them, finishing with 1 turnover in 38 minutes of floor time.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upDespite 36 minutes and strong individual scoring (25 pts on 68% TS), Bueckers fell one assist short at 4, likely constrained by Connecticut's balanced offensive attack and her 26% usage rate—below her season norms—which limited playmaking opportunities despite the extended floor time.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale's historically poor 1-9 shooting (11% FG) and 19% usage rate left her unable to generate offensive flow or create opportunities for teammates, resulting in zero assists despite 26 minutes of play.
NYL @ GSV6–5−0.04u
  • Pauline Astier Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDespite facing the league's toughest assist defense, Astier reached 4 assists on just 23 minutes and 15% usage—she simply didn't need high volume to hit the over, converting opportunities efficiently in limited playing time. The blowout nature and her 4 personal fouls appeared to constrain her run, yet she still cleared the line by a single assist.
  • Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (85% TS) because she logged only 27 minutes—2–3 below typical—likely due to foul trouble (4 PF), which limited her rebounding volume even in a neutral matchup environment.
  • Breanna Stewart Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart played just 26 minutes (6 fewer than her recent average) and recorded zero assists despite 35% usage, suggesting the offensive flow ran through other creators rather than her playmaking. Her 3 turnovers and 3 personal fouls limited her impact as a facilitator on a night when the team's ball movement didn't funnel through the forward.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberFiebich played 31 minutes but took only 4 total field-goal attempts (7% usage), missing her lone three-point try; the efficient scoring (3-4 FG, 75% TS%) came entirely from two-pointers, defying her recent L5 average of 2.8 threes despite elevated playing time.
  • Veronica Burton Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberBurton's assist total jumped significantly above her L10 average of 4.5, partly due to elevated usage (13%) and a team-high 27 minutes in a blowout win (+25), which gave her more ball-handling opportunities than the modest -1.0 gap from pre-game suggested.
POR @ WAS3–2+0.88u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton fell one rebound short despite 51 minutes and stable season form (3.6 RPG average), as Washington's elite rebounding defense (12.29 RPG allowed to forwards, 2nd in league) made good on their defensive rebounding opportunities and limited second-chance situations. Her 16% usage rate and limited opportunities in a close game (+/- of -1) compounded the shortfall from her 3.8 RPG recent average.
  • Shakira Austin Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin's 6 assists doubled the 2.5 line, driven by a season-high 47 minutes of floor time that inflated her opportunity to facilitate—she averaged 0.128 assists per minute, well above her typical rate. The blowout nature of the game and her extended run kept her on court as a floor-spacing rim-runner rather than forcing early exit via foul trouble (just 1 PF).

Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.