← claude_combined · WNBA
2026-07-03
Day by day
these are the claude_combined picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
3–11 · 21% · −8.29u across the last 1 days
07/033–1121%−8.29u2 games
MIN @ NYL1–7−6.24u
- Kayla McBride Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (7-16 FG, 56% TS), as 33 minutes of heavy usage (24%) at high volume gave her enough shot attempts to clear 15.5 even without a hot night. The under's -128 sharp consensus underestimated her floor role and available playing time in a blowout loss.
- Nia Coffey Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberCoffey fell one rebound short despite getting her expected 28 minutes, held back by a dismal 2-11 shooting night (18% FG) that limited her overall involvement and floor time around the rim where she typically crashes for boards.
- Breanna Stewart Under 19.5 PTS36 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart torched the elite Minnesota defense with 14-19 shooting (74% FG) and 6-6 from the line, posting a scorching 83% true shooting that completely negated the defensive matchup advantage that grounded the under thesis. Her 36 minutes and 34% usage meant she was the focal point of the offense, and Minnesota's typically stout forward defense had no answer for her efficiency.
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played her projected 31 minutes but fell one rebound short, held back by a -23 rating and foul trouble (4 PF) that likely limited her aggressive rebounding activity despite normal opportunity.
- Courtney Williams Under 15.5 PTS16 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under on efficient shooting (7-13 FG, 62% TS) despite playing only 24 minutes—well below the 30.4 expected, meaning she needed just one extra made field goal to clear 15.5 on limited volume. The pace-adjusted model failed to account for her elite shot-making in compressed minutes, as she generated 16 points on 25% usage in fewer possessions than projected.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberIonescu exceeded her recent assist average (3.6 per game L5/L10) by recording 6 dimes in 35 minutes, a season-high assist total that reflected increased playmaking opportunities in a blowout win (+18). Despite the modest 21% usage rate, she converted opportunities more freely than her pre-game profile suggested, pushing her over the 4.5 threshold.
CHI @ LVA2–4−2.05u
- Chelsea Gray Over 7.5 AST6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's usage rate dropped to 25% (below her 18.37% season average) and she recorded only 6 assists despite playing 41 minutes, suggesting Chicago's elite perimeter defense (rank 2 in assists allowed to guards) successfully limited her creation opportunities and forced a more isolation-heavy offensive approach.
- Jewell Loyd Under 9.5 PTS19 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberLoyd exploded well above her 7.3 season PPG average by playing 39 minutes (12 more than her season average) and shooting an efficient 6-13 FG with 3-9 from three, nearly doubling her typical usage rate to 19% in a game that didn't experience the projected -16.6% pace slowdown. The extended run and hot shooting on elevated volume—not a matchup collapse—drove her to 19 points.
- NaLyssa Smith Under 12.5 PTS29 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberSmith erupted far above her depressed 5-game average (8.0 PPG) by shooting an elite 11-14 FG (79% TS) over 34 minutes with 27% usage, completely overriding the defensive matchup thesis that grounded the under at 12.5.
- Sydney Taylor Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberTaylor shot just 1-for-5 from three on 19% usage, finishing well short of the 2.1 makes needed; the combination of limited volume and poor efficiency (20% 3PT) made the over untenable despite her 26-minute floor time.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.