← claude_combined · WNBA
2026-07-04
Day by day
these are the claude_combined picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
4–10 · 29% · −7.02u across the last 1 days
07/044–1029%−7.02u2 games
POR @ SEA3–6−3.81u
- Jade Melbourne Over 17.5 PRA8 vs 17.5no clean explanationMelbourne's 18 minutes and 9% usage—well below her season baseline—combined with foul trouble (5 PF) to limit her volume, while her 5 points couldn't compensate on a night she failed to approach her recent assist average of 5.2 per game (finished with 2).
- Awa Fam Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberFam finished with just 3 rebounds despite playing 34 minutes—well below her season average of 5.2—as she struggled offensively (4-15 FG, 26.7%) and failed to crash the glass effectively in a low-efficiency outing.
- Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberMalonga played just 19 minutes—well below her season average of 26 MPG and recent 28.7 MPG—limiting her rebounding volume despite an efficient 55% TS and 51% usage rate. The reduced playing time, likely due to early foul trouble (3 PF), proved to be the decisive factor in falling short of 8.5 boards.
- Bridget Carleton Under 13.5 PTS14 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton barely cleared the line despite inefficient 4-14 shooting (29% FG), leaning heavily on 5-6 free-throw shooting to reach 14 points—she compensated for poor field-goal volume with perfect accuracy from the stripe in a game that played to script with the low 167.5 total.
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman fell one assist short despite 34 minutes and solid efficiency (56% TS), held back by 4 turnovers and a modest 22% usage rate that limited her playmaking opportunities even in a high-pace game.
- Megan Gustafson Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGustafson attempted only 4 threes despite playing 28 minutes—well below the 3–4 projected launch rate—and connected on just 1, likely due to reduced offensive usage (11%) in a game where Seattle's elite perimeter defense (0.47 threes allowed to wings) successfully limited her volume.
GSV @ ATL1–4−3.21u
- Allisha Gray Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberGray's 11-16 free-throw shooting (nearly 69% of her points) carried her past 17.5 despite a poor 5-17 field-goal night, as she drew fouls aggressively and converted from the line to overcome Las Vegas's elite perimeter defense.
- Gabby Williams Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberWilliams torched the under on elite 66% true shooting (7-14 FG, 4-8 from three) and 24% usage in 27 minutes, converting at a rate well above her season average despite the pace-corrected projection of 10.6 PPG. The ATL defense's vulnerability to forwards combined with her hot hand overwhelmed the glacial-tempo thesis that anchored the under.
- Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun played only 20 minutes, two fewer than anticipated, and grabbed just 2 rebounds despite efficient scoring (5-9 FG), suggesting limited opportunity and activity on the glass fell short of her L5 average of 4.4. The under-20-minute allocation was the primary constraint on reaching 3.5 boards.
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS21 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton shot 84% true shooting (6-9 FG, 2-3 3PT, 7-8 FT) and played 30 minutes with elite efficiency, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line despite modest 24% usage. The bet required her to stay under 12 points—a threshold she obliterated on just nine field-goal attempts thanks to near-perfect shooting and free-throw volume (8 attempts).
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.