← claude_combined · WNBA
2026-07-06
Day by day
these are the claude_combined picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
11–10 · 52% · −0.41u across the last 1 days
07/0611–1052%−0.41u2 games
CON @ MIN4–8−4.40u
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upDespite the defensive grind predicted—MIN's elite 97.3 DRTG and CON's turnover issues did materialize (2 TOs in 28 min)—Leger-Walker's 5 assists came from steady floor time (28 min, 16% usage) and efficient playmaking that overcame the projected pace suppression. The model's 2.05 projection underweighted her ability to generate assists even in a slower, defensive-minded game, and the under's reliance on sub-3.6 assist production proved too tight a margin.
- Nia Coffey Over 6.5 REB4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCoffey's historically poor shooting night (0-6 FG, 15% TS) limited her floor time to just 20 minutes and tanked her usage to 15%, leaving her well short of the 6.5 rebound threshold despite Connecticut's weak rebounding defense.
- Courtney Williams Under 18.5 PTS23 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded her recent scoring averages (14.0 L10, 13.4 L5) by playing 36 minutes—seven more than her seasonal baseline—and shot an efficient 47.6% from the field to reach 23 points. Her elevated usage (28%) and elite true shooting (55%) on a game where she stayed out of foul trouble (3 PF) flipped what had been a reliable under into a miss.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 9.5 PTS10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberNelson-Ododa got 29 minutes in a close game (no blowout discount applied), and despite facing Minnesota's elite interior defense, converted 4-of-6 from the field for efficient scoring that pushed her to 10 points—just enough to clear the 9.5 line that had priced in both pace slowdown and defensive matchup risk.
- Brittney Griner Under 11.5 PTS29 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberGriner torched the elite MIN interior defense with 11-14 shooting (78.6% FG) and 7-11 from the line for 29 points—nearly 2.5x her season average—despite playing just 34 minutes, as Minnesota's vaunted paint defense had no answer for her efficiency and touch around the rim.
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (69% TS on 25% usage), held back by just 26 minutes of playing time and five personal fouls that limited her availability on the glass.
SEA @ LAS7–2+3.99u
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike hit the over with 3 assists despite playing only 28 minutes in a low-possession game (82 total), as her 26% usage rate concentrated her involvement enough to exceed the 2.5 threshold in limited action. The compressed pace that was projected as a headwind proved immaterial when she maintained her playmaking touches in the minutes she did see.
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberJohnson fell one rebound short despite heavy usage (38%) and solid scoring efficiency, held back by limited floor time at 27 minutes and the game's blowout nature (+15, likely reducing rebounding opportunities in garbage time).
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.