← disciplined_board · WNBA
2026-07-08
Day by day
these are the disciplined_board picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
7–12 · 37% · −6.48u across the last 1 days
07/087–1237%−6.48u3 games
IND @ LAS3–8−5.52u
- Ariel Atkins Under 10.5 PTS12 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAtkins exceeded her recent form (L5 avg 6.2) by converting 55% true shooting on 17% usage, particularly capitalizing on 2-2 free throw shooting to reach 12 points in 31 minutes. The under was predicated on her sub-7 ppg trend, but she stayed efficient enough to clear the 10.5 line despite modest 40% field goal shooting.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded the 5.5 line by one assist (finished with 6) despite modest 29 minutes and 16% usage, hitting her recent L5 average of 5.2 and staying consistent with her tendency to operate as a primary ball-handler in limited floor time.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS9 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's devastating 4-12 shooting night (33% FG, 17% from three) combined with just 16 minutes of playing time—well below her season norm—resulted in a nine-point outing that fell seven points short of the over. The limited minutes and ice-cold efficiency from the field were the primary drivers, as her 38% true shooting was nearly 10 percentage points below what the sharp market had implied for this matchup.
- Caitlin Clark Over 17.5 PTS9 vs 17.5no clean explanationClark played just 16 minutes—nearly half her 31.8-minute average—and shot inefficiently (4-12 FG, 1-6 3PT), combining for a brutal 38% TS that made her scoring unsustainable despite 40% usage. The reduced playing time, likely tied to foul trouble (1 PF registered but possible early-game limitations) and a lopsided -16 +/-, was the primary throttle on volume.
- Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 AST3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark was limited to just 16 minutes of play, slashing her usual volume in half—she averaged 8.2 assists over her last 10 games but had no opportunity to reach that pace in a game where she saw minimal court time. Four turnovers on only 9 points further constrained her assist opportunities despite maintaining elevated usage at 40%.
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS9 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark shot just 4-12 from the field and 1-6 from three in only 16 minutes of action, finishing at 38% true shooting—well below the efficiency needed to clear 15.5 despite her 40% usage rate. The game never developed into the fast-paced, high-scoring affair anticipated, and her early foul trouble (4 fouls) limited her opportunity to accumulate scoring volume.
GSV @ TOR0–2−2.00u
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS15 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton erupted from deep, converting 3-of-5 three-pointers and posting a 97% true shooting rate—a dramatic departure from her L10 average of 5.3 ppg—while playing nearly her season average in minutes (25), negating the pre-game edge that relied on her recent cold-shooting profile. The efficient 4-6 overall shooting and perfect 4-4 from the line doubled her projected output despite comparable playing time.
- Veronica Burton Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton played just 21 minutes—well short of her 27.2 L10 average—which severely limited her rebound opportunities despite solid efficiency. The reduced run, likely due to game flow or rotation decisions, made the 2.5 rebound line unattainable even though she stayed out of foul trouble.
MIN @ CON4–2+1.03u
- Courtney Williams Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded her recent trend (L10: 3.9 APG) by distributing the ball at a higher rate tonight, finishing with 7 assists on 28% usage and 30 minutes—a marked uptick from her pattern of rarely hitting the over on this line.
- Kayla McBride Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMcBride exceeded her recent assist average (2.4 L5) by logging a season-high 38 minutes in a game where she shot 90% from the field, elevating her offensive rhythm and creating more ball-movement opportunities than her typical role. Her zero turnovers on 17% usage also indicates she maintained efficient decision-making throughout the extended run.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.