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disciplined_board
846–643 over 1489 priced bets · +21.8u · ROI +1.5% -3.1% to +6.0% · CLV +1.22¢ +1.1% to +1.4%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.
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Day by day
Latest 30 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: disciplined_board.
368–307 · 55% · −19.15u across the last 30 days · 2 voided, zero benchmark units
10/264–357%−0.01u1 game
ATL @ GSV4–3−0.01u
- Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Angel Reese Under 11.5 REB15 vs 11.5paid over the fair number
- Angel Reese Under 12.5 REB15 vs 12.5no clean explanation
10/244–357%+0.13u1 game
GSV @ ATL4–3+0.13u
- Jordin Canada Over 6.5 AST4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 11.5 PTS10 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 10.5 PTS10 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
10/199–1243%−3.44u1 game
ATL @ GSV9–12−3.44u
- Kayla Thornton Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton fell one rebound short despite solid playing time (19 min), held back by minimal offensive involvement (7% usage, 1-3 FG) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and generate second-chance boards.
- Kayla Thornton Over 3.5 PTS2 vs 3.5no clean explanationThornton shot just 1-for-3 from the field despite logging 19 minutes, a significant underperformance that kept her well short of the 3.5-point line; her 7% usage rate and 33% true shooting indicate limited offensive involvement and poor efficiency when she did touch the ball.
- Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 PTS2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's 7% usage rate and 1-3 shooting (33% TS) left her well short of the 4.5-point line despite adequate 19-minute run; she simply didn't get enough volume or hit enough of her limited attempts to clear the threshold.
- Kaila Charles Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCharles fell one rebound short despite a solid 26 minutes of floor time, held back by low volume and limited offensive opportunities (16% usage) in a game where she didn't draw fouls (0-0 FT) to create second-chance scenarios.
- Gabby Williams Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams took a ball-dominant role (36% usage) but struggled to generate offense, posting a 39% true shooting and turning it over 3 times in 27 minutes, which limited her playmaking opportunities and resulted in just 1 assist.
- Angel Reese Under 10.5 REB16 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese dominated the glass with 16 rebounds on 34 minutes and elite 72% true shooting, translating her high-volume touches (30% usage) into both scoring and rebounding opportunities that far exceeded the 10.5 line. Her 5 fouls without fouling out meant she stayed on the floor for a full game script, capturing 6 offensive rebounds that typically swing the over/under on this type of bet.
10/176–1332%−8.56u1 game
ATL @ GSV6–13−8.56u
- Tiffany Hayes Over 7.5 PTS3 vs 7.5no clean explanationHayes went 1-for-12 from the field (8.3% FG) despite playing 24 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 8 points when she scored just 3. Her historically poor shooting night—compounded by 0 made free throws—doomed the over despite adequate opportunity and minutes.
- Naz Hillmon Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberHillmon's playmaking evaporated despite 30 minutes on court—she recorded zero assists while turning the ball over once, suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game's flow.
- DeWanna Bonner Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner played just 13 minutes with a 7% usage rate and went 1-2 from the field, severely limiting her scoring opportunities well below the 7.5-point threshold. The minimal playing time and shot volume—not poor efficiency—were the primary factors in the missed over.
- Jordin Canada Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada played 38 minutes but shot just 3-9 from the field (33%) with a 40% true shooting percentage, falling well short of the scoring volume needed to clear 11.5 despite her high usage rate of 16%.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes' 1-for-12 shooting night (8% FG) fell well short of the offensive output needed to clear 8.5 points, as poor shot selection and execution—not playing time or foul trouble—sank the over.
- Gabby Williams Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams fell one assist short despite heavy offensive usage (35%), as she prioritized scoring (26 pts on 22 attempts) over playmaking in a game where the team got out to an early lead (+16 final margin).
10/0911–1346%−5.36u2 games
ATL @ NYL5–9−5.64u
- Pauline Astier Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier played only 8 minutes with minimal involvement (12% usage), leaving her no opportunity to accumulate the 2 rebounds needed to clear the over. Her limited court time and complete absence from the glass made the 1.5 rebound line unsustainable.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich played heavy minutes (37) but generated minimal rebounding activity, finishing with just 2 boards despite 12% usage—a reflection of her perimeter-heavy role and limited interior presence in a game where she struggled shooting (2-7 FG). The combination of low usage and her positioning kept her off the glass despite the extended run.
- Rhyne Howard Under 20.5 PTS21 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's efficient 7-21 shooting night (33% FG, 40% 3PT) combined with 38 minutes of heavy usage (30%) to push her just over the line at 21 points, as Atlanta leaned on her scoring in a close contest.
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationJones stayed on court for all 38 minutes and seized playmaking opportunities in a high-usage game (26%), finishing one assist above the line despite modest assist volume. Her dominance in scoring (26 pts on elite 71% TS) and rebounding (14) kept her involved in the offense enough to reach 3 dimes.
- Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier logged just 8 minutes with 12% usage, providing minimal opportunity to accumulate boards, and failed to secure a single rebound in that limited run.
- Pauline Astier Over 4.5 PTS0 vs 4.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier saw just 8 minutes of action with minimal usage (12%), going 0-1 from the field to finish scoreless—a far cry from the 5+ points needed to cash the over. Limited playing time and a quick hook made scoring opportunities non-existent.
GSV @ LVA6–4+0.28u
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST2 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage and 42 minutes on the floor, tallying just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times—a combination of ball-handling issues and the team's offensive struggles (evident in her -10 rating) that prevented her from facilitating at the expected rate.
- Jackie Young Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung played 42 minutes with heavy usage (27%) but generated just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times, suggesting she was attacking downhill rather than facilitating, and picked up 5 fouls that limited her ability to dictate tempo. A blowout loss (-10 +/-) in which she shot inefficiently (6-16 FG) likely forced Las Vegas into isolation-heavy, low-rhythm offense rather than the ball-movement sets needed to accumulate assists.
- Kiah Stokes Under 3.5 PTS11 vs 3.5no clean explanationStokes erupted from three-point range (5-5 FG, 1-1 3PT) while playing a season-high 38 minutes in a blowout (+18), far exceeding her typical usage to rack up 11 points and shred the under.
- Stephanie Talbot Over 5.5 PTS0 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTalbot was a complete no-show offensively despite 21 minutes of run, going 0-for-2 from the field with a 5% usage rate—she simply didn't get enough touches or couldn't convert when she did, failing to reach even one made basket.
10/0716–576%+7.08u2 games
LVA @ GSV6–2+2.75u
- A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS24 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell just short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she generated only 24 points in 36 minutes with 29% usage—she needed one more scoring possession to clear 25.5. The tight margin suggests near-elite efficiency couldn't overcome modest shot volume on the night.
- A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS24 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell one point short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she didn't get enough volume—29% usage and 36 minutes limited her shot diet just enough to miss the over by a single point.
NYL @ ATL10–3+4.33u
- Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier managed only 1 rebound in 14 minutes despite taking 6 shots, as her limited floor time and lack of offensive rebounding opportunities kept her well short of the 2.5 mark. Her 25% usage rate and early foul trouble (1 PF in sparse minutes) restricted her ability to crash the glass consistently.
- DeWanna Bonner Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner hit the over by one assist despite shooting poorly (2-11 FG), as her 34 minutes of floor time and ball-handling role kept her in position to record multiple dimes even when her scoring touch abandoned her.
- Pauline Astier Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier played just 14 minutes and grabbed only 1 rebound, far short of the 3.5 over; limited run and a modest usage rate (25%) kept her off the glass and unable to accumulate boards.
10/0411–1444%−5.62u2 games
LVA @ GSV5–9−5.33u
- Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB11 vs 4.5no clean explanationWilliams dominated the glass with 11 rebounds across 34 minutes, more than doubling the 4.5 line, as her 31% usage rate and clean foul trouble (0 PF) allowed her to stay on the court and crash consistently on both ends.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes shot just 1-for-4 from the field and 1-for-4 from the line while logging only 11 minutes, leaving her well short of the 8.5-point line. Her 26% true shooting and limited floor time were the primary culprits in a significant underperformance.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5no clean explanationHayes played only 11 minutes with minimal ball-handling duties, recording zero assists despite 27% usage—her limited floor time and low-volume role made the 1.5 assist threshold unattainable. The poor shooting efficiency (26% TS%) likely further limited her playmaking opportunities.
- Kaila Charles Over 4.5 PTS2 vs 4.5no clean explanationCharles went 1-for-5 from the field with zero free-throw attempts despite 18 minutes of play, posting a 20% true shooting percentage that fell well short of the 4.5-point threshold.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 7.5 PTS3 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes shot just 1-for-4 from the field and 1-for-4 from the free-throw line while playing only 11 minutes, combining for a 26% true shooting percentage that made scoring difficult despite a reasonable usage rate of 27%.
- Kaila Charles Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCharles logged only 18 minutes and managed just 2 rebounds despite a +7 rating, suggesting limited opportunity and low offensive involvement (13% usage) rather than foul trouble or benching due to poor play. She fell one board short of the 3.5 line in a game where her floor time and rebounding chances simply didn't materialize.
NYL @ ATL6–5−0.29u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS27 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under, shooting 10-20 from the field (50%) and 3-8 from three while logging 34 minutes and commanding 35% usage—well above what's needed to clear 15.5 points. Her elite 62% true shooting efficiency and high volume made the under untenable.
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the 2.5 assists line by dishing 4 assists while playing a full 32 minutes with elevated usage (17%), as the Liberty leaned on her playmaking from the post more than typical. The under missed despite modest offensive efficiency because she operated as a secondary facilitator alongside heavier volume touches in what appeared to be an offensive system adjustment.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS27 vs 14.5no clean explanationIonescu torched the line on 10-20 shooting (50% FG) and 4-4 from the free-throw line, nearly doubling the under projection with her 62% true shooting and elite 35% usage rate over 34 minutes.
- Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS0 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played heavy minutes (37) but was nearly invisible offensively, going 0-2 from the field with minimal shot attempts (6% usage), rendering her rebounding and assist contributions unable to compensate for a complete scoring drought.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 16.5 PTS27 vs 16.5no clean explanationIonescu caught fire from the field, shooting 10-20 (50% FG) with efficient 62% true shooting to blow past the 16.5-point line, staying on the floor for 34 minutes with 35% usage despite a blowout loss.
10/027–847%−3.08u1 game
DAL @ GSV7–8−3.08u
- Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers played a full 38 minutes but crashed the glass just once despite high usage (26%), as she functioned primarily as a perimeter scorer and facilitator (10 FT attempts, 6 assists) rather than a rebounder in this matchup.
- Awak Kuier Over 6.5 PTS6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberKuier fell one point short despite efficient 75% true shooting and 33 minutes of floor time, undone by minimal usage (8%) that limited her scoring opportunities despite converting 3 of 4 from the field.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's shot-heavy usage (44%) and high volume (21 FG attempts) left little room for playmaking, and she turned the ball over 5 times while recording just 2 assists—well short of the 3.5 line despite her 30-point performance.
- Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 PTS17 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBueckers fell one point short despite 38 minutes and 26% usage, held back by poor shot selection: she connected on just 3 of 14 field goals (21%), with her 10-for-10 free-throw performance unable to compensate for the ice-cold shooting from the floor.
- Aziaha James Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5game script — blowout or foul troubleJames shot just 1-for-5 from the field and fouled out with only 8 minutes played, making it impossible to reach the over despite a respectable usage rate. Her 20% true shooting was a killer—she couldn't convert opportunities when she had them.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationArike's scoring-heavy usage (44%) and 5 turnovers limited playmaking opportunities, resulting in just 2 assists despite 34 minutes and 30 points. She also picked up 5 fouls, which may have forced more isolation scoring rather than ball movement in crunch situations.
10/013–538%−2.94u1 game
IND @ LVA3–5−2.94u
- Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS23 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray exploded well beyond expectation on 8-15 shooting (53% FG) and a perfect 6-6 from the line, nearly doubling the 13.5 total despite modest 25% usage, powered by elite 65% true shooting efficiency.
- A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's offensive burden was so heavy—31% usage with 36 points on 37 minutes—that she operated almost exclusively as a scorer rather than a facilitator, resulting in just 1 assist despite elite efficiency. The Las Vegas attack ran through her scoring rather than playmaking, making the over on assists a victim of her dominant but ball-dominant performance.
- Aliyah Boston Under 17.5 PTS19 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBoston's efficient 8-16 shooting (50% FG) combined with 32 minutes of run allowed her to reach 19 points despite a modest 22% usage rate, as her high shooting volume on limited touches overcame the under's expectation of a lower-scoring night.
- Aliyah Boston Under 7.5 REB10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston dominated the glass with 10 rebounds in 32 minutes, converting 50% of her shot attempts and drawing four fouls that kept her on the court despite foul trouble, easily clearing the 7.5 line.
- Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 REB10 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston grabbed 10 rebounds in 32 minutes with 4 personal fouls, staying active on the glass despite foul trouble and hitting the board for 1.5 more than the 8.5 line required. Her 22% usage rate kept her in the game long enough to accumulate boards without getting benched, allowing the rebounding total to creep over.
09/3015–2538%−13.50u2 games
GSV @ DAL6–15−10.36u
- Jessica Shepard Over 9.5 PTS4 vs 9.5no clean explanationShepard played heavy minutes (41) but was nearly invisible on offense, shooting just 2-5 from the field and generating only 9% usage—well below her typical volume—to finish with just 4 points despite the extended run.
- Kayla Thornton Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationThornton grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, reaching 6 boards in 31 minutes despite modest 15% usage; she stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and remained on the floor for the full game to accumulate the extra glass.
- Kaitlyn Chen Over 4.5 PTS4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairgame script — blowout or foul troubleChen fell just short on limited minutes (8) and cold shooting (2-6 FG, 33% TS), unable to reach the over despite a healthy 40% usage rate. Three personal fouls also likely restricted her floor time in what became a blowout loss (-12 +/-).
- Tiffany Hayes Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanationHayes grabbed exactly one rebound more than the projected ceiling, finishing with 3 boards in 15 minutes of limited action. The under missed by the narrowest margin despite her modest 24% usage rate, as she simply out-rebounded expectations in her restricted role.
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 PTS10 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers' 10 points came on just 3-13 shooting (23% FG) despite playing all 43 minutes, as poor efficiency and low usage (18%) left her well short of the 19.5-point line. A 34% true shooting percentage—her lowest of the season—combined with limited volume kept her output at less than half her scoring threshold.
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 REB1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upZandalasini came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (2-3 FG), held back by limited rebounding opportunities in just 19 minutes of play. Her 10% usage rate and relatively modest court time restricted her ability to crash the boards enough to hit the over.
ATL @ WAS9–10−3.14u
- DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberBonner's limited 14-minute run and low 20% usage rate gave her minimal playmaking opportunity, and she recorded zero assists despite shooting efficiently, resulting in a complete miss on the over. Foul trouble (3 PF) likely restricted her floor time and prevented the ball-handling role needed to accumulate assists.
- Georgia Amoore Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore's catastrophic 1-5 shooting (20% TS) and 0-4 from three—combined with just 11% usage despite 28 minutes—left her well short of 7.5 points; she scored only 2 and couldn't generate offensive opportunities even with extended floor time.
- Jordin Canada Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberCanada nearly doubled the projection with 7 rebounds in 35 minutes, significantly outpacing her season averages likely due to extended floor time and elevated usage in a blowout win (+23) where she played heavy minutes without foul trouble (4 PF).
- Kiki Iriafen Under 1.5 AST4 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIriafen's 4 assists more than doubled the 1.5 line, driven by 36 minutes of heavy court time and a team-high 16 rebounds that created natural playmaking opportunities from the post and in transition.
- Lauren Betts Over 4.5 PTS0 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts saw limited run (11 minutes) with minimal offensive opportunities (12% usage), going scoreless on her lone field-goal attempt in what appears to have been a blowout situation (-6 +/-). The restricted role and low shot volume made it nearly impossible to reach 4.5 points.
- Allisha Gray Under 19.5 PTS22 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray's efficient 44% overall shooting (8-18 FG) and perfect 3-for-3 free-throw night pushed her past the 19.5 line despite modest 27% usage, as she capitalized on her 35 minutes of court time with 57% true shooting.
09/2922–1069%+6.44u2 games
MIN @ NYL13–8+2.31u
- Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 29 minutes, held back by a low usage rate (9%) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and compete for boards.
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberWilliams nearly doubled the projected total, grabbing 8 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy involvement while posting a 24% usage rate that kept her in rebounding position throughout the game. The under missed decisively due to her elevated floor time and offensive workload creating consistent opportunities on the glass despite modest scoring efficiency.
- Courtney Williams Under 12.5 PTS18 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under by shooting 8-of-17 from the field (47%) and playing all 38 minutes, generating 24% usage in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF. Her efficient scoring night on high volume and heavy minutes availability was the key driver in surpassing 12.5 points.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 7-15 from the field (47%) with 4 made threes despite modest usage, and played all 33 available minutes without foul trouble to compile her 18 points. Her 60% true shooting and elevated three-point volume (10 attempts) proved enough to clear 15.5 in a blowout where New York's +15 margin allowed her to stay on the floor.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 16.5 PTS18 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 7-15 from the field (46.7%) with 4 three-pointers on high volume (33 minutes, 24% usage) to reach 18 points despite a quiet free-throw line. Her true shooting of 60% was well above her season baseline, allowing her to clear 16.5 on moderate shot attempts.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationFiebich played 29 minutes but recorded just 1 assist on 9% usage, falling one short of the 1.5 line; she was primarily a scorer/rebounder (7 pts, 3 reb) rather than a playmaker in this game.
LVA @ IND9–2+4.13u
- A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's assist total fell short despite heavy offensive usage (29%), as she took 16 shot attempts and 13 free throws, leaving limited ball-movement opportunities in a game where Las Vegas struggled overall (-16 rating). Four turnovers and a shoot-first role in a competitive contest limited her playmaking ceiling.
- Caitlin Clark Under 10.5 AST15 vs 10.5no clean explanationClark's 15 assists came in a high-volume offensive game (32% usage, 68% TS%) where she dominated as the primary playmaker, easily clearing the 10.5 line. The under was a misjudgment of her usage rate and the offensive pace of a game where Indiana controlled the tempo.
09/2746–3061%+4.28u4 games
WAS @ ATL9–12−5.48u
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
- Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
- Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, held back by minimal usage (8%) and a box-out role that limited her opportunities on the glass in a game without significant volume demands.
- Lauren Betts Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts went 1-for-4 from the field with a 25% true shooting percentage, well below the scoring efficiency needed to hit 5.5 points in 23 minutes of play. Her 11% usage rate and shooting struggles—missing 3-of-4 attempts—left her well short of the projection.
- Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere grabbed 4 rebounds in 26 minutes despite shooting just 3-9 from the field, as she stayed active on the glass even when her offensive touches weren't falling. The under missed because she reached the mark through volume availability rather than efficiency—she logged solid floor time and pulled down boards at a reasonable rate despite the poor shooting night.
- Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray was a pure scorer tonight, posting 22 points on efficient shooting (60% TS) but recorded zero assists despite 35 minutes of play—she operated almost exclusively as a volume scorer rather than a facilitator, with her 23% usage channeled entirely into shot attempts rather than playmaking.
IND @ LVA5–6−2.64u
- A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's historic scoring efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) made her the focal point of the offense, but her high usage rate (32%) and dominant post presence left little opportunity for playmaking—she recorded just 2 assists despite 35 minutes of elite individual scoring.
- A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB16 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's elite efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) kept her on the floor for all 35 minutes, and her 32% usage rate generated enough possessions to rack up 16 boards—well above the 9.5 line despite only fouling three times in a blowout win.
- Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 PTS13 vs 7.5no clean explanationCunningham's perfect 4-4 free-throw shooting and 50% three-point efficiency (3-6) pushed her to 13 points despite modest volume, nearly doubling the under as she converted at an elite 84% true shooting clip in 29 minutes.
- Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS14 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray's efficient 4-8 shooting (50% FG) combined with a 6-7 free-throw line performance pushed her past the under despite modest volume, as she capitalized on high-efficiency looks in 34 minutes of play.
- Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS14 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGray pushed just over the line with 14 points on efficient 63% true shooting, converting 6-of-7 free throws to make up for modest field-goal volume (4-8 FG) in her 34 minutes of play.
- A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 REB16 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass with 16 rebounds in 35 minutes, fueled by her elite 79% field-goal rate (15-19) that kept her on the floor and offensive rebounding opportunities alive in a blowout win (+29).
DAL @ GSV15–10+1.48u
- Awak Kuier Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberKuier fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG) that limited her involvement and kept her off the glass in a lopsided game where she finished -25. Her 15% usage rate indicates minimal touches and opportunities to crash the boards.
- Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun grabbed just 2 rebounds in 21 minutes despite decent playing time, falling 2 short of the 3.5 line—her limited opportunities on the glass were compounded by inefficient offensive play (1-6 FG) that kept her out of rhythm and reduced her involvement in hustle situations.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale shot just 2-7 from the field despite playing 26 minutes, and while she converted all six free throws, the inefficient field-goal performance (28.6% FG) left her three points short of the over. Her 21% usage rate and modest 52% true shooting capped her scoring ceiling in a game where Dallas fell into a blowout (-31 +/-).
- Gabby Williams Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilliams exceeded the assist line by one, reaching 4 dimes while playing a full 27 minutes with high usage (30%), giving her plenty of opportunities to facilitate in a blowout win (+27).
- Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line predicted, finishing with 5 boards in 19 minutes of solid efficiency (4-6 FG, 83% TS); the under missed by the slimmest margin despite her limited role and low usage rate.
- Gabby Williams Under 16.5 PTS20 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams shot 50% from the field (8-16) and maintained efficient scoring throughout her 27 minutes, easily clearing the 16.5-point threshold with 20 points on high volume and elite True Shooting percentage (58%).
NYL @ MIN17–2+10.93u
- Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS34 vs 22.5paid over the fair numberStewart torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 11-18 from the field and 10-12 from the stripe for a 73% true shooting rate while logging a game-high 38 minutes in a blowout. Her 34% usage rate and near-perfect free-throw shooting (83%) transformed what looked like a modest scoring line into a 34-point performance.
- Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 12 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy usage (34%), converting at an elite 73% TS and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF), far exceeding the 9.5 threshold.
09/243–350%−0.94u3 games
IND @ MIN0–3−3.00u
- Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS2 vs 21.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three, combining for just 2 points in 18 minutes despite 30% usage, as historically poor efficiency derailed the over by 19.5 points. The 8% true shooting percentage was the primary culprit—she simply couldn't convert looks that were available within her usage rate.
- Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS2 vs 20.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three despite 30% usage, posting an 8% true shooting percentage—a historically poor offensive night that made the 20.5-point line impossible to reach. Her 18 minutes of playing time compounded the issue, leaving her with insufficient volume to overcome the shooting collapse.
- Caitlin Clark Over 19.5 PTS2 vs 19.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three on 30% usage, combining historically poor efficiency with limited volume to fall far short of the 19.5-point line. Her 18 minutes of action and lopsided +/- (-27) suggest Iowa was blown out early, limiting scoring opportunities.
LVA @ PHO1–0+0.65u
CHI @ WAS2–0+1.41u
09/239–756%−0.20u2 games
ATL @ NYL6–7−2.14u
- Angel Reese Over 10.5 REB6 vs 10.5no clean explanationReese was limited to just 17 minutes—5-7 below her season average—which capped her rebounding opportunities at 6, well short of the 10.5 line. The limited run was the decisive factor, as her rebounding rate would have easily cleared the over with standard playing time.
- Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS6 vs 14.5no clean explanationReese was held to just 6 points on 2-7 shooting (29% FG) in only 17 minutes, well short of the 14.5-point line. Limited offensive opportunity and poor efficiency combined to make the over a non-factor.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 16 minutes, collecting just 2 boards on a night when low usage (12%) and a scoreless performance (0-1 FG) limited her opportunities to crash the glass.
- Rhyne Howard Over 15.5 PTS8 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot just 4-of-12 (33% FG) and 0-of-5 from three despite playing 34 minutes, unable to generate scoring efficiency even with the volume to hit over 15.5 points.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich was a non-factor in 16 minutes with just 2 rebounds and 3 turnovers, recording zero assists despite 12% usage; she failed to generate any playmaking opportunities in a limited role.
- Angel Reese Over 15.5 PTS6 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese's scoring collapsed due to severe shooting inefficiency (2-7 FG, 28.6% from the field) and limited opportunities, finishing with just 17 minutes and 21% usage—well below the workload needed to reach 15.5 points.
DAL @ SEA3–0+1.95u
09/2212–1348%−3.15u5 games
LAS @ LVA0–4−4.00u
- Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberBurrell's playmaking disappeared despite 29 minutes and solid usage; she recorded zero assists while turning the ball over four times, suggesting poor decision-making and an inability to create for teammates in a low-efficiency outing (41% TS).
- Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's heavy 34-minute workload and 27% usage rate—playing nearly the full game as the primary ball-handler—gave her enough opportunities to grab 5 boards despite shooting just 6-16 from the field, pushing past the 4.5 rebound line.
- Rae Burrell Over 15.5 PTS11 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberBurrell's inefficient 4-12 shooting (33% FG) and 0-2 from three combined with modest free-throw volume (3 attempts) left her 4.5 points shy despite 29 minutes of play. Her 29% usage rate proved insufficient to generate the scoring volume needed to clear the 15.5-point threshold.
- Chelsea Gray Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberGray torched the under on an efficient 7-12 shooting night (58% FG) with extended 33-minute run, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line at 17 points. Her 68% true shooting and zero fouls allowed her to stay on court and capitalize on a high-volume opportunity despite modest 21% usage.
GSV @ POR1–4−3.24u
- Kayla Thornton Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberThornton nearly doubled the over/under by grabbing 7 boards in 26 minutes, benefiting from elevated opportunity on a night when her team needed rebounding help and she drew only 2 fouls despite heavy box-out work.
- Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 62% true shooting on 20% usage was enough to clear the 9.5-point line, converting 4-of-8 from the field and both her three-point attempts in 26 minutes despite modest volume.
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS11 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton exceeded the under despite modest volume, converting 4-of-8 from the field (50%) and 2-of-4 from three (50%) on 26 minutes to reach 11 points, as efficient shooting made up for her low usage rate of just 20%.
- Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed 7 rebounds in 26 minutes, exceeding the 4.5 line by collecting 3 extra boards despite modest usage (20%) and shooting efficiency (62% TS%), likely benefiting from active interior presence and limited competition for available rebounds.
CON @ WAS1–2−1.25u
- Kiki Iriafen Over 9.5 REB5 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIriafen fell well short with just 5 rebounds due to a combination of limited minutes (18) and early foul trouble (5 PF), which restricted her ability to crash the glass and accumulate the volume needed to clear 9.5.
- Sonia Citron Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron fell just short at 3 assists despite playing 30 minutes; she operated with only 19% usage and didn't generate enough offensive opportunities to reach 5 dimes, relying heavily on her scoring (6-6 FT) rather than playmaking.
TOR @ CHI2–1+0.79u
- Sydney Taylor Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor exceeded the under with efficient shooting, going 5-12 from the field (42%) with a perfect 5-5 from free throw while maintaining 31% usage over 24 minutes. Her 63% true shooting and aggressive free throw attempts (5 attempts) proved the scoring floor was higher than the 15.5-point line anticipated.
MIN @ IND8–2+4.56u
- Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTS6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, combining for only 6 points well short of the 11.5 target; limited run and inefficient scoring made the over impossible to hit.
- Natasha Howard Over 10.5 PTS6 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, limiting her to 6 points well short of the 10.5 line; the minimal playing time and modest usage rate (27%) prevented her from accumulating scoring opportunities.
09/216–1038%−5.65u2 games
ATL @ NYL4–10−7.18u
- Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB14 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 14 rebounds on 37 minutes and 31% usage, nearly doubling the 8.5 line as the team's primary frontcourt presence in a low-scoring affair where boards were heavily contested.
- Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich played 32 minutes but finished with just 2 rebounds, one short of the line, due to minimal offensive involvement (5% usage, 0-3 from the field) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass in a game where she was ineffective on the perimeter.
- Pauline Astier Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAstier exceeded the 3.5 assist line by hitting exactly 4 dimes in 30 minutes of play, benefiting from efficient offensive execution (76% TS%) that likely created more ball-movement opportunities despite her modest 15% usage rate.
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the assist line by distributing the ball from the post in 35 minutes of heavy usage (22%), recording 4 dimes while dominating the glass with 12 rebounds. Her elevated role as a facilitator—typical for a big handling the ball in the mid-post—pushed her playmaking volume just beyond the low 2.5 threshold.
- Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's usage rate sat at just 16%, well below what's needed to generate assist opportunities, and she recorded only 1 dime despite playing 32 minutes—a clear indicator the offense ran through other creators rather than her facilitating. She compensated with efficient scoring (5-8 FG), but low volume and assist distribution prevented her from reaching the 2.5 assists threshold.
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese's ball-handling was minimal despite 34 minutes and heavy usage (25%), finishing with only 2 assists as she operated primarily as a scorer and rebounder rather than a playmaker. She drew 4 fouls, which limited her aggression and floor time in key stretches where she might have generated extra dimes.
DAL @ PHO2–0+1.53u
09/2015–963%+2.81u5 games
POR @ LAS0–2−2.00u
- Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell fell one assist short despite an efficient 25 minutes and elite scoring (20 pts on 84% TS), as her shot-heavy usage (25%) left little margin for playmaking duties. With only 2 turnovers and minimal ball-handling responsibilities in the flow of the offense, she simply didn't generate enough assist opportunities to clear the 2.5 line.
- Ariel Atkins Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins was remarkably efficient, converting 5 of 7 from the field (71%) with perfect 3-for-3 free-throw shooting to nearly double the betting line despite playing just 20 minutes. Her elite 84% true shooting and hot hand from the floor—particularly from inside the arc—overcame the limited minutes that would typically support an under bet.
WAS @ IND5–4−0.26u
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTS22 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell fell just short despite heavy minutes (35) and usage (29%), hampered by poor shooting efficiency—she connected on just 8-of-20 FG (40%) and 3-of-10 from three, leaving her three points shy of the line.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberMitchell played 35 minutes and took 20 shots but failed to grab a single rebound despite 29% usage, unable to convert her offensive opportunities into board work. Her scoring volume masked a complete absence of rebounding activity—a rare outcome for a guard in heavy rotation that left the over vulnerable.
- Shakira Austin Under 9.5 REB10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin grabbed one board over the line, finishing with 10 rebounds on 26 minutes of play while drawing only 3 fouls—enough activity to stay on the court and collect boards at a modest rate that pushed her just past the 9.5 threshold.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS22 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell fell two points short despite playing 35 minutes, hampered by inefficient shooting (8-20 FG, 3-10 3PT) that yielded just 52% true shooting—well below her typical efficiency needed to clear 24.5 points.
SEA @ LVA3–1+1.50u
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson grabbed two more rebounds than the line anticipated, finishing with 6 boards on 32 minutes of heavy usage (33%) in a game where she was heavily involved on both ends of the floor.
MIN @ CON3–1+1.65u
- Saniya Rivers Over 7.5 PTS0 vs 7.5game script — blowout or foul troubleRivers saw just 5 minutes of action with zero shot attempts, indicating she was a healthy scratch or buried on the bench, making any scoring prop untenable. With no field goal opportunities in limited minutes, the over 7.5 was never in play.
NYL @ TOR4–1+1.93u
- Marine Johannes Under 6.5 PTS9 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes exceeded the line by shooting 3-for-8 from three, converting at 37.5% from deep to reach 9 points in 18 minutes—enough volume in limited time to clear the 6.5-point threshold despite modest overall efficiency.
09/1913–1057%+1.54u3 games
CHI @ ATL3–5−2.55u
- Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 19 minutes, hampered by dismal 0-5 shooting that likely limited her interior activity and offensive rebounding opportunities. Her 13% usage rate suggests limited involvement in the offense, reducing the number of possessions and second-chance situations that typically generate rebound volume.
- Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon shot 0-for-5 from the field and generated only 13% usage in 19 minutes, leaving her entirely dependent on free throws for scoring and unable to reach 8 points. Her 17% true shooting percentage reflects a near-complete offensive drought that rendered the over unplayable.
- Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell just short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 18% usage) because her 24 minutes and modest volume—only 9 FG attempts—capped her scoring at 14 points, two shy of the line.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso's efficient 5-7 shooting (71%) wasn't enough to clear 12.5 points due to limited minutes (19) and usage (24%), holding her to 11 points despite a strong True Shooting percentage.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS14 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot efficiently (71% TS) but saw limited volume with just 18% usage and 24 minutes, falling 3.5 points short of the over despite solid shooting splits (5-9 FG, 3-6 3PT).
PHO @ DAL3–2+0.46u
- Awak Kuier Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upKuier's perfect 4-for-4 shooting from the field (including 1-for-1 from three) on limited 27 minutes was the outlier—she converted at 100% TS despite her low 9% usage rate, pushing her just over the 9.5 line despite minimal offensive involvement.
- Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with an efficient 8-11 shooting night (72.7% FG), converting nearly three-quarters of her attempts from the field to reach 19 points despite modest usage at 22%. Her elite scoring efficiency—well above her season baseline—was the difference maker in pushing past the 15.5-point threshold.
SEA @ GSV7–3+3.63u
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman fell just short despite playing 30 minutes, finishing with only 3 assists due to low offensive involvement—her 11% usage rate and 2-5 shooting kept her off the ball and limited playmaking opportunities.
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationJohnson grabbed one more board than the line despite inefficient shooting (6-18 FG), staying on the court for 34 minutes and maintaining high usage (34%) to accumulate volume opportunities on the glass.
- Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed 6 rebounds in 30 minutes despite shooting 0-for-6, as her role shifted toward perimeter defense and rebounding activity rather than offensive usage. The 9% usage rate and scoreless night limited her impact elsewhere, but high playing time ensured she collected enough boards to clear the 4.5 line.
09/188–753%−0.84u3 games
POR @ GSV1–2−1.21u
- Kayla Thornton Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5paid over the fair numberThornton exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (4-10 FG), hitting 3-of-8 from three to reach 13 points in 25 minutes with elevated usage at 23%, relying on volume rather than shooting accuracy to push past the 10.5 line.
- Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS13 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberThornton exceeded the under on efficient scoring, going 4-10 from the field with a 3-8 clip from three to reach 13 points in 25 minutes of solid role-player production. Her 57% true shooting and 23% usage rate kept her on pace to clear 9.5 despite modest volume.
NYL @ MIN3–2+0.15u
- Courtney Williams Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams played 29 minutes with low usage (19%) in a blowout loss, recording only 2 assists despite 5 rebounds, suggesting limited offensive flow and playmaking opportunities in a game that didn't require sustained ball movement. Five fouls also may have constrained her aggression late, limiting her ability to generate additional assists.
- Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB10 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart grabbed two boards beyond the line in 38 full minutes of action, capitalizing on her team's offensive rebounding opportunities in a blowout win (+13). Her elite efficiency (58% TS) and high usage kept her on the floor throughout, providing extra chances to clean the glass.
IND @ TOR4–3+0.22u
- Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark grabbed one more rebound than the line anticipated, finishing with 6 boards across 34 minutes of heavy usage (39%) in a game Indiana won by 10, staying active on the glass despite her primary role as a scorer and facilitator.
- Kiki Rice Under 3.5 REB6 vs 3.5no clean explanationRice doubled her rebounding projection with 6 boards in 29 minutes, benefiting from elevated usage (34%) and activity that extended beyond her typical scoring role in a competitive game.
- Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTS16 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison's 6-for-11 free-throw shooting (55%) provided the cushion needed to sneak over 15.5 despite a poor 4-for-13 field-goal night, as her 32 minutes and 24% usage were enough to generate scoring opportunities from the line.
09/1717–1849%−4.69u5 games
CON @ ATL6–9−3.70u
- DeWanna Bonner Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner's minutes (11) and usage rate (12%) were well below her typical load, limiting her scoring opportunities to just three field-goal attempts, of which she made only one.
- Rhyne Howard Over 19.5 PTS10 vs 19.5no clean explanationHoward shot just 3-14 from the field (21% FG) and 1-9 from three (11%), combining for a 32% true shooting percentage that fell well short of what was needed to reach 20 points even with 28 minutes played.
- Aaliyah Edwards Over 12.5 PTS7 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberEdwards shot just 3-8 from the field (37.5%) with only 16 minutes of action, limiting her scoring well short of the 12.5-point line. Four fouls in a blowout loss (-27) further restricted her opportunity to get back on track.
- DeWanna Bonner Over 6.5 PTS2 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberBonner was held to just 2 points on 1-3 shooting in limited 11-minute action, managing only 12% usage despite a positive +14 rating. The minimal volume and inefficient 33% true shooting were the clear culprits in missing the over by a wide margin.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS10 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberHoward's inefficiency at the rim doomed the over: she shot just 3-14 from the field (21%) and 1-9 from three (11%), combining for a dismal 32% TS despite adequate playing time and usage at 28 minutes and 27% usage rate.
- Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS10 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's shot selection and efficiency collapsed: she went 3-14 from the field (21% FG) and 1-9 from three despite playing 28 minutes, leaving her 8.5 points shy of the over despite solid playmaking (8 ast, 4 stl).
WAS @ CHI1–2−1.25u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberCardoso's 10 points fell short of 13.5 despite solid volume (11 FG attempts), as she converted just 5 shots (45% FG) and took zero free throws in 23 minutes—a below-average efficiency night that couldn't overcome her limited offensive output. Four fouls in limited minutes also likely restricted her aggressive play late in the game.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS10 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberCardoso fell short of 12.5 despite solid volume (11 FG attempts), hampered by poor efficiency at 45.5% TS and zero free-throw attempts that limited her scoring upside. Foul trouble (6 PF in 23 minutes) likely curtailed her aggression and playing time in a blowout loss.
PHO @ POR1–1−0.30u
- Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with efficient inside scoring, converting 6 of 8 from the field (75%) while getting to the free-throw line 10 times in 31 minutes, offsetting her zero three-pointers with dominant paint production.
LVA @ SEA3–2+0.28u
- A'ja Wilson Under 26.5 PTS29 vs 26.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilson's perfect 10-10 free-throw shooting and elite 69% two-point conversion (8-of-11) powered her to 29 points despite modest usage, as her 83% true shooting easily cleared the 26.5 line. She stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF in 29 minutes, allowing her to maintain high-efficiency offense throughout the game.
- Chelsea Gray Under 3.5 REB9 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray crashed the glass hard despite minimal offensive involvement, pulling down 9 rebounds in 26 minutes—more than double the projected total—as a primary rebounder in a game where Las Vegas controlled pace and rebounding opportunities.
LAS @ DAL6–4+0.28u
- Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REB11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationShepard grabbed 11 boards in 28 minutes, just clearing the number despite modest 22% usage, as her team's +18 margin and defensive rebounding opportunities kept her in high-volume rebound situations.
- Rae Burrell Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5no clean explanationBurrell shot just 5-14 from the field (36%) and 1-4 from three despite 24 minutes and 27% usage, falling two points short of the 14.5 line. Her inefficient shooting night, combined with limited free-throw attempts (1-1), prevented her from reaching the scoring threshold.
- Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 AST12 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard's playmaking was the engine of her impact despite modest scoring, dishing 12 assists on 28 minutes of floor time while maintaining efficiency (55% TS%) and recording a team-leading +18, nearly doubling the 5.5 assist line. Her ball movement and high-volume involvement in the offense—facilitated by low foul trouble (2 PF)—drove her well above the projection.
- Maddy Siegrist Under 8.5 PTS12 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberSiegrist converted 5 of 10 from the field (50% FG) and 2 of 5 from three for 12 points in 23 minutes, exceeding the 8.5-point line through efficient shooting rather than elevated usage (17%). She stayed out of foul trouble with only 3 personal fouls, allowing her to play her typical role without restriction.
08/3022–1461%+4.06u4 games
MIN @ ATL4–8−5.27u
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell one assist short despite 33 minutes and heavy involvement (22% usage, 11 rebounds), as her ball-handling struggles—5 turnovers in limited playmaking opportunities—kept her from the 3+ assists threshold.
- Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played a full 30 minutes but couldn't secure boards despite adequate opportunity, finishing with just 3 rebounds on 18% usage and a poor 3-9 shooting line that likely limited her presence around the rim.
- Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS16 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward fell one point short despite heavy playing time (35 min), held back by inefficient shooting (6-16 FG, 2-9 3PT) that kept her TS% at 47%—well below her season average and insufficient to push her over 16.5.
- Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's inefficient 6-16 shooting night (37.5% FG, 22% from three) left her two points shy despite logging heavy minutes, as poor shot selection and limited free-throw opportunities (2-2 on just 2 attempts) prevented her from reaching the 18.5 threshold.
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over by a single assist despite modest usage (20%), benefiting from extended floor time (37 minutes) that created enough playmaking opportunities to reach 3 dimes.
- Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward fell one point short despite heavy usage (35 min, 20% usage rate), undone by poor shooting efficiency—she connected on just 6-of-16 from the field (37.5% FG) and 2-of-9 from three, both well below her season norms. The 47% true shooting wasn't enough volume to reach 18 points, the realistic threshold for a profitable over.
GSV @ POR5–5−0.61u
- Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS17 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 5-8 from the field and 3-5 from three while posting a 87% true shooting percentage in 25 minutes—nearly double the scoring needed to clear 7.5 points on just 19% usage.
- Megan DiLeo Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDiLeo fell just short despite efficient shooting (60% FG), limited by 24 minutes of run and a 23% usage rate in a game where the team's offensive load was distributed elsewhere. One made three-pointer instead of going 0-for-3 from deep would have cleared the line.
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS17 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) easily doubled the expected output, and her 25 minutes of run time at 19% usage provided the volume to cash in on her hot shooting from the field and foul line (4-4 FT).
- Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStokes was limited to just 12 minutes and recorded only 1 rebound, as her minimal playing time and 0% usage rate prevented her from approaching the 5.5 rebound threshold.
- Kaitlyn Chen Under 9.5 PTS15 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upChen torched the under with an efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) while playing a full 27 minutes, combining volume and accuracy to nearly double the 9.5-point projection.
CON @ DAL4–1+2.14u
- Awak Kuier Over 8.5 PTS4 vs 8.5no clean explanationKuier's 4 points fell well short of the 8.5-point line due to minimal offensive involvement—she posted just 7% usage and took only 2 field-goal attempts despite playing 20 minutes. Though she was efficient when she did shoot (50% FG, 100% FT), the volume simply wasn't there to reach the over.
LAS @ SEA9–0+7.81u
08/296–275%+2.14u2 games
CHI @ NYL1–1−0.43u
- Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB9 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStewart grabbed one extra rebound to push past the line, fueled by 26 minutes of floor time and active interior presence with 2 blocks that kept her in rebounding position despite modest 4-11 shooting.
TOR @ PHO5–1+2.57u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one rebound short despite solid floor time (22 min), held back by low volume—her 14% usage and pass-first role (12 assists) limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).
08/2813–572%+6.17u4 games
WAS @ LAS2–1+0.55u
- Sonia Citron Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron exceeded the under by hitting 50% from three (4-7) and shot efficiently overall at 60% TS despite modest volume, posting 22 points in 32 minutes to easily clear 17.5.
CON @ IND3–1+1.50u
- Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationClark grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, finishing with 5 boards in 34 minutes of heavy usage (34%) while playing efficiently and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF), which kept her on the floor and in position to crash the glass.
POR @ ATL4–2+1.80u
- Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 1-6 (17%) with 0-3 from three despite playing 33 minutes, and her 10% usage rate left her with minimal scoring opportunities in the game. Even with free throws, she could only muster 4 points—well short of 14.5—on a historically poor 29% true shooting night.
- Carla Leite Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite grabbed 3 rebounds in 29 minutes, just one more than the under's threshold, as her elite scoring efficiency (9-13 FG, 88% TS) kept her heavily involved on offense rather than crashing the glass.
TOR @ LVA4–1+2.31u
- Isabelle Harrison Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarrison came up one rebound short despite solid 24 minutes and high usage (36%), held back by limited opportunities on the glass—she grabbed only 7 boards while shooting just 5-for-14 from the field in a game where her team was outrebounded.
08/275–838%−4.63u2 games
GSV @ NYL2–5−3.59u
- Janelle Salaun Over 11.5 PTS7 vs 11.5no clean explanationSalaun's efficient rebounding (7 boards in 24 minutes) kept her on the floor, but she shot just 3-10 from the field (30%) with poor efficiency across the board, falling 4.5 points short of the over despite solid playing time and a positive plus-minus.
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's inefficiency (2-12 FG, 27% TS) and modest 26% usage rate limited her opportunities to crash the glass, while her 29 minutes—typical for her role—weren't enough to generate the necessary volume at a position where she averaged limited rebounding activity. The blowout loss (-17 +/-) also reduced garbage-time opportunities that could've pushed her toward the over.
- Pauline Astier Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier's ice-cold 2-6 shooting (33% TS) left her stuck at 4 points despite 24 minutes of run, as poor shot selection and execution prevented her from reaching the 6.5-point threshold. Her 16% usage rate compounded the issue, limiting her scoring opportunities in a game where she struggled to find rhythm offensively.
- Janelle Salaun Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5no clean explanationSalaun exceeded the rebound total despite poor offensive efficiency (3-10 FG), grabbing 7 boards in 24 minutes—a 17.5 rebound rate that capitalized on high volume opportunities and her size advantage on the glass. The under missed because she stayed active on the boards even as her scoring touch completely deserted her (30% FG).
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberZandalasini played a high-volume scorer's role (29% usage, 20 pts on 8-17 shooting) with limited playmaking opportunities, recording just 1 assist across 31 minutes despite solid efficiency. The offensive-focused game script didn't create natural setup opportunities for an assist-heavy performance.
WAS @ PHO3–3−1.04u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5no clean explanationThomas was held to just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) despite playing 32 minutes, rendering her 11% usage rate irrelevant; the offensive inefficiency—compounded by zero 3-pointers—left her stranded well short of 13.5 points.
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS11 vs 17.5no clean explanationAustin shot just 3-9 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 17% usage rate—well below her season average—limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she didn't get enough offensive touches to reach 18+.
- Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS11 vs 16.5no clean explanationAustin's 11 points fell short of 16.5 despite playing 30 minutes due to inefficient shooting (3-9 FG, 33%), as she relied heavily on free throws (5-5) to generate scoring rather than consistent field-goal production.
08/266–843%−3.65u2 games
GSV @ CON3–4−2.19u
- Tiffany Hayes Over 10.5 PTS5 vs 10.5game script — blowout or foul troubleHayes played only 3 minutes, severely limiting her scoring opportunities despite efficient shooting (2-3 FG, 1-1 3PT); reduced playing time was the decisive factor in missing the over.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleHayes played just 3 minutes with minimal ball-handling responsibilities, recording zero assists despite efficient scoring; the severe minutes restriction made the over unplayable regardless of her assist rate.
- Kennedy Burke Over 9.5 PTS2 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurke shot just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) and missed both free-throw attempts despite 22 minutes of action, combining for only 2 points well below the 9.5 line. Her 12% usage rate and 17% true shooting percentage indicate she was both limited in touches and inefficient when she did get the ball.
- Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleHayes played only 3 minutes, leaving insufficient opportunity to accumulate rebounds despite efficient scoring (2-3 FG); the severe minutes restriction was the prohibitive factor for hitting 2.5+ boards.
TOR @ SEA3–4−1.46u
- Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTS17 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison exceeded the under on volume rather than efficiency, taking 16 shots across 32 minutes (27% usage) and converting 7-of-10 free throws to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Her elevated free-throw attempts (10 FT) and heavy workload proved enough to clear 15.5 despite poor overall shooting splits.
- Isabelle Harrison Under 14.5 PTS17 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison converted 7 of 10 free throws (70%) to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field, leaning heavily on free-throw volume to exceed the 14.5-point line. Her 32 minutes and 27% usage rate provided enough offensive opportunities for her to push over despite poor overall efficiency.
- Jade Melbourne Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne pushed one assist over the line despite modest usage (19%), as she operated efficiently in 33 minutes and found cutters consistently in a game flow that favored ball movement with her low turnover rate (2 TOs).
- Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne eclipsed the 5.5 assist line by distributing the ball at elevated volume—she posted 7 assists across 33 minutes of heavy involvement, commanding 19% usage and operating as a primary playmaker in the offense. Her efficiency across all shot types (61% TS, 5-10 FG) kept her on the floor and in rhythm to generate multiple looks for teammates.
08/258–1436%−7.38u3 games
WAS @ PHO2–8−6.29u
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell just short despite efficient 7-11 shooting (64% FG) because limited free-throw attempts (2-5) and 24 minutes of action left her one point shy of the over. Her 28% usage rate and lack of three-point volume meant she needed a perfect night from the line to clear 17.5, and two makes there weren't enough.
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one board short despite solid efficiency (8-13 FG) and heavy involvement (32 min, 10 ast), likely limited by foul trouble (4 PF) that may have made her more cautious on the glass in a blowout loss (-13 +/-).
- Shakira Austin Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationAustin fell just short despite efficient shooting (7-11 FG, 61% TS) because limited minutes (24) and modest usage (28%) capped her scoring opportunities at 16 points. She needed to maintain this shooting efficiency while playing closer to 30+ minutes to clear 18.5.
- Natasha Mack Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberMack crashed the glass hard despite limited minutes, pulling down 8 rebounds in just 25 minutes on elite 75% true shooting—her aggressive interior presence on a hot shooting night (9-12 FG) translated to more available boards than anticipated at the under line.
- Natasha Mack Under 7.5 REB8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMack eclipsed the 7.5 rebound line with 8 boards despite playing just 25 minutes, as her elite 75% true shooting and dominant 9-12 field-goal performance kept her on the floor and in rhythm throughout the game. Her 4 personal fouls stayed manageable enough to avoid foul trouble, allowing her to maintain consistent court time and secure the extra rebound needed to push past the over.
- Kelsey Plum Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberPlum's playmaking was non-existent despite 38% usage, recording just 1 assist in 17 minutes while turning the ball over once and fouling out with 5 fouls, limiting her ability to orchestrate the offense. Her role was reduced to isolation scoring rather than facilitating, and she couldn't generate the dribble drive opportunities needed to hit the assist total.
POR @ DAL3–4−1.47u
- Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton played 30 minutes with heavy offensive usage (22%) but failed to crash the glass, grabbing just 2 rebounds despite taking 13 shots—a clear departure from her rebounding role that left the over well short.
- Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 AST11 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers nearly doubled the assist line with 11 dimes, thriving in a game where UConn dominated (+26) and she played all 33 available minutes without foul trouble, creating easy looks for teammates in a blowout environment.
- Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberShepard orchestrated the offense efficiently in 34 minutes with a game-high 26% usage rate, recording one more assist than the under required while shooting a scorching 10-15 from the field to facilitate easy movement of the ball. Her elite efficiency and high volume created natural playmaking opportunities that pushed her over the 5.5 threshold.
- Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 PTS21 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard torched the under with 10-15 shooting (67% FG) in 34 minutes, staying out of foul trouble (0 PF) to maintain heavy volume and elite efficiency at 64% true shooting. Her 26% usage rate combined with near-perfect shot selection meant she needed just 15 attempts to reach 21 points, well above the 15.5 projection.
CHI @ CON3–2+0.37u
- Saniya Rivers Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upRivers pushed over the line with exactly 5 assists despite shooting just 3-10 and posting poor efficiency (35% TS), relying on playmaking volume rather than scoring to stay productive in 29 minutes.
- Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTS4 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shooting was catastrophic, going 2-11 from the field (18% TS%) with an 0-6 three-point night in 20 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 12.5 points. Despite moderate usage (25%), her inability to convert any perimeter shots and reliance on made field goals left her 8.5 points short of the over.
08/2412–10 ·2 void55%−0.68u2 games
GSV @ MIN5–7−2.93u
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberMcBride exceeded the assist prop despite shooting just 18% from the field, relying on her playmaking (4 ast in 33 min) rather than scoring to impact the game—a rare occurrence that undermined the under bet.
- Maya Caldwell Under 5.5 PTS9 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberCaldwell's 3-for-5 three-point shooting (60%) and near-perfect 90% true shooting overcame modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient scoring made the under vulnerable to even modest volume. She needed just 9 points to bust a 5.5 line, and elite efficiency made that threshold easier to clear than expected.
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride grabbed 4 boards despite a poor 2-11 shooting night, staying on the floor for all 33 minutes and maintaining active rebounding work even as her offensive touches dried up. The volume was there to hit the over, and she delivered on the glass despite shooting just 18% from the field.
- Veronica Burton Under 6.5 AST9 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberBurton's playmaking dominated the game despite modest usage; she notched 9 assists in 30 minutes—well above the 6.5 line—by running the offense efficiently with just 1 turnover and forcing 5 steals that generated transition opportunities.
- Olivia Miles Over 19.5 PTS8 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) and 1-5 from three on 29% usage, combining for historically poor efficiency (31% TS%) that made it impossible to reach 19.5 despite playing 28 minutes. The offensive struggles were across the board—she couldn't generate scoring opportunities and converted few of the looks she did get.
- Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTS8 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiles shot just 25% from the field (3-12) with brutal 31% true shooting, falling well short of the 18.5-point line despite playing 28 minutes and maintaining solid usage at 29%. Cold shooting across the board—1-5 from three and inefficient overall—was the primary culprit in the 10.5-point shortfall.
ATL @ LAS7–3 ·2 void+2.26u
- Erica Wheeler Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWheeler came up one assist short despite playing 25 minutes, finishing with just 3 dimes as her offensive inefficiency (1-6 FG, 15% usage) limited her ability to generate ball movement and create scoring opportunities off the bench.
- Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS2 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's ice-cold 1-6 shooting (17% TS) left her well short despite 25 minutes of run, as she managed just 2 points on 15% usage in a game where she couldn't find her rhythm from the field.
- Isobel Borlase Under 5.5 PTS6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBorlase's 2-of-8 shooting (25% FG) left little margin for error on the 5.5-point line, and she converted both free throws to reach 6 points despite the poor offensive efficiency. The 16 minutes of playing time gave her enough volume to narrowly exceed the under threshold despite a putrid 34% true shooting night.
08/2325–876%+11.68u4 games
WAS @ POR2–1+0.65u
- Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton fell one rebound short despite heavy volume (36 min, 18% usage), as her elite offensive efficiency (64% TS%, 8-14 FG) kept her ball-dominant in a way that limited rebounding opportunities relative to her playing time.
IND @ CHI8–5+0.69u
- Sydney Taylor Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5no clean explanationTaylor drew 3 fouls in 18 minutes, limiting her rebounding opportunities and forcing her to play cautiously on the glass; combined with poor shooting (2-9 FG, 0-6 3PT), she generated zero boards despite moderate usage at 25%.
- Monique Billings Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBillings grabbed exactly 5 rebounds in 19 minutes, just clearing the 4.5 bar despite modest offensive involvement (16% usage); she was efficient on the glass relative to her limited shot diet and playing time.
- Caitlin Clark Under 25.5 PTS37 vs 25.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark torched the line on elite efficiency, shooting 54% from three and 75% overall on high volume (41% usage) with zero fouls allowing her to stay on the court all 32 minutes. The combination of hot shooting and unrestricted playing time pushed her well past 25.5 points.
- Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shot completely abandoned her, connecting on just 2-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three for a 22% true shooting percentage in 18 minutes. The combination of brutal efficiency and limited playing time (likely due to three fouls) left her far short of the 14.5-point line.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanationCardoso fell short of 8.5 boards with just 6 rebounds despite 24 minutes of run, hampered by early foul trouble (5 PF) that limited her interior presence and a lopsided team performance (-31 +/-) that kept Chicago out of rebounding situations.
SEA @ DAL7–1+4.41u
- Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REB11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upShepard grabbed 11 rebounds in 27 minutes, exceeding the 10.5 line by one despite modest offensive efficiency (5-11 FG); her workload on the glass was enough to push the under just over the edge.
LVA @ TOR8–1+5.93u
- Julie Allemand Over 4.5 AST2 vs 4.5no clean explanationAllemand's limited 15-minute run and 16% usage rate left her well short of assist opportunities, while 2 turnovers in that brief window further dampened her playmaking impact.
08/2216–867%+5.10u3 games
CON @ LAS6–5+0.10u
- Leila Lacan Under 11.5 PTS13 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upLacan's 13 points came despite poor efficiency (6-14 FG, 45% TS), as her 29 minutes and 21% usage rate gave her enough volume to clear the 11.5 threshold in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just one personal.
- Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell was a scorer, not a facilitator tonight—she shot efficiently (8-13 FG) and took 28% usage but distributed just 2 assists in 30 minutes, staying in attack mode rather than playmaking. Three turnovers and a ball-dominant role left little room for the helper column despite her scoring efficiency.
- Cameron Brink Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBrink was limited to just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 fouls, which severely restricted her opportunities on the glass; despite perfect shooting efficiency, the combination of foul trouble and minimal court time left her well short of the 5.5 rebound threshold.
- Cameron Brink Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBrink played just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 PF, severely limiting her opportunity to crash the boards despite efficient scoring; she grabbed only 1 rebound in that shortened run.
- Leila Lacan Under 12.5 PTS13 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationLacan's 29 minutes of court time and 21% usage rate gave her enough opportunities to edge past the line, converting 6 of 14 field-goal attempts despite a 45% true shooting percentage that was below her season average.
ATL @ PHO4–1+2.49u
- Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberCopper's 38 points on elite 72% true shooting masked her playmaking drought—she registered just 1 assist despite 37 minutes and 33% usage, suggesting the offense ran through her scoring rather than her facilitation. The bet needed her to operate as a distributor, but she functioned almost purely as a scorer in this game.
IND @ NYL6–2+2.51u
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTS25 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMitchell fell one point short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 30% usage), unable to generate enough volume or free-throw attempts (only 6 FTA) to push past 25.5 in her 33 minutes. Her 9-15 FG pace would have required significantly more shot attempts or trips to the line to clear the number.
- Pauline Astier Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanationAstier grabbed exactly one more rebound than the line predicted despite modest 24 minutes and 17% usage, as she cleaned the glass at a higher rate than her season average in limited action.
08/2118–1260%+3.72u3 games
MIN @ WAS5–5−0.90u
- Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts played only 13 minutes and grabbed just 1 rebound, falling 4 short of the over; limited run and low usage (10%) kept her well below the 4.5 threshold despite the playing time she did receive.
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over with a modest 3 assists despite moderate usage (20%), as she played all 35 minutes and operated as a secondary ball-handler in an efficient offensive game where Las Vegas's spacing kept defenses honest.
- Olivia Miles Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMiles fell one board short despite heavy offensive involvement (42% usage, 29 min), as her scoring creation (24 pts, 7 ast) came primarily through perimeter shooting rather than interior activity, and five personal fouls limited her ability to crash the glass aggressively.
- Natasha Howard Under 13.5 PTS21 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward torched the under on an efficient 10-12 shooting night (83% FG), scoring 21 points in 33 minutes while staying out of foul trouble with just 4 PF. Her elite finishing around the rim—particularly on high-volume close-range attempts—turned what looked like a modest usage rate (20%) into well above the 13.5-point threshold.
- Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS17 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell one point short despite solid efficiency (58% TS on 27% usage), as her 7-13 shooting output simply didn't generate enough volume to clear 17.5 in 34 minutes of play. She needed just one more made field goal to hit the over, but came up one shot short.
POR @ TOR6–4+1.01u
- Brittney Sykes Over 13.5 PTS0 vs 13.5game script — blowout or foul troubleSykes played just 2 minutes with 1 personal foul, effectively sidelined early and unable to contribute on the scoresheet. With minimal court time and zero shot attempts, she couldn't approach the 13.5-point threshold despite the 30% usage rate context.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison recorded only 1 assist despite heavy offensive usage (38%) and 28 minutes, as she functioned primarily as a scorer and rebounder rather than a playmaker in this game. Her assist-to-usage rate fell well short of what the over implied, with most of her 25 points coming from direct scoring rather than ball movement.
- Emily Engstler Under 9.5 PTS13 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upEngstler exceeded the 9.5-point line despite shooting just 38% from the field, benefiting from elevated usage (22%) and 30 minutes of floor time that provided enough volume to reach 13 points on modest efficiency.
- Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCarleton fell one rebound short despite 33 minutes and solid offensive efficiency (61% TS), as she logged just 4 boards in a game where her 22% usage rate limited her overall volume and rebounding opportunities.
GSV @ CHI7–3+3.61u
- Courtney Vandersloot Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upVandersloot grabbed just 1 rebound despite playing 29 minutes, well below the 2.5 line—a stark departure from her usual rebounding activity and likely attributable to limited offensive rebounding opportunities and her primary role as a floor-running guard rather than a glass-cleaner.
- Natasha Cloud Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud fell one assist short despite heavy usage (36 min, 20% usage rate), held back by a quiet playmaking night—she recorded four turnovers and didn't generate the extra helper needed to push past 4.5.
- Kayla Thornton Over 6.5 PTS0 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's OVER 6.5 missed badly as she went scoreless on just 2 shot attempts in 19 minutes, posting 0% TS and a 5% usage rate that left her virtually out of the offensive flow. The combination of limited touches and cold shooting (0-2 FG) made any scoring production impossible.
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.