← disciplined_board · WNBA
2026-07-12
Day by day
these are the disciplined_board picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
19–10 · 66% · +4.25u across the last 1 days
07/1219–1066%+4.25u4 games
IND @ LVA6–6−1.40u
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS12 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark played just 24 minutes—3.2 below her recent average—and shot 45% from the field (5-11 FG, 1-5 3PT), well below her season efficiency, combining to hold her to 12 points despite 30% usage.
- Jackie Young Over 16.5 PTS15 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung fell just short despite solid efficiency (70% TS), held to only 16% usage and 32 minutes as the Aces' offense stalled in a blowout loss (-17), limiting her scoring opportunities below her L5 average of 17.8.
- Jackie Young Over 5.5 AST3 vs 5.5no clean explanationYoung played only 32 minutes (one fewer than projected) and saw her usage collapse to 16%—well below her season average—in a game Las Vegas lost by 17, limiting her creation opportunities to just 3 assists despite solid efficiency. The blowout loss combined with reduced floor time short-circuited the assist volume needed to clear 5.5.
- Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 AST6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray came up one assist shy despite 30 minutes, held back by a season-low 21% usage rate and 5 turnovers that limited her facilitating impact. The recent-form surge didn't materialize in this lower-volume outing.
- Caitlin Clark Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's 5-11 shooting (45% FG) and 1-5 from three fell short of the volume needed to clear 14.5 despite the high-scoring environment, compounded by just 24 minutes of action that limited her scoring opportunities despite 30% usage. The combination of modest efficiency and restricted playing time left her 2.5 points shy despite the 182.5 total environment supporting a higher output.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS12 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberClark's 12 points fell 4.5 short despite 24 minutes of action, held back by poor perimeter shooting (1-5 from three) and an inefficient 45% overall FG that limited her scoring punch even as she maintained solid playmaking with 6 assists.
SEA @ WAS3–2+0.33u
- Shakira Austin Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin played 33 minutes with high usage (30%) and elite scoring efficiency (64% TS%), but grabbed just 5 boards—a sharp departure from her L10 average of 10.2—suggesting opponent box-outs or a slower rebounding pace limited her glass work despite heavy offensive touches.
- Shakira Austin Under 13.5 PTS27 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin exploded far beyond her recent baseline, shooting 55.6% from the field (10-18) with 64% true shooting and 30% usage—a dramatic uptick from her L10 average of 10.9 PPG—to finish with 27 points in 33 minutes, completely invalidating the under at 13.5.
NYL @ TOR5–1+2.49u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 8 assists crushed the 5.5 line despite modest recent form, driven by elevated usage (26%) and a full 33 minutes that exceeded the pre-game projection, allowing her playmaking to flourish in a high-volume role. Toronto's neutral guard defense and Ionescu's aggressive shot creation (9-18 FG, 7-8 FT) created natural assist opportunities that our model—anchored to her 3.8-assist average over 10 games—failed to account for.
CHI @ DAL5–1+2.83u
- Natasha Cloud Under 10.5 PTS15 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud shot 5-8 from the field (62.5%) with a perfect 5-5 from free throw, converting at 74% TS despite her season usage staying modest at 18%—elite efficiency on limited volume overwhelmed her recent scoring averages. The bet needed her to stay within her L5 average of 8.6 points, but a hot shooting night pushed her past the line even without elevated shot attempts.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.