← disciplined_board · WNBA
2026-07-15
Day by day
these are the disciplined_board picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
6–12 · 33% · −8.14u across the last 1 days
07/156–1233%−8.14u3 games
GSV @ IND1–7−6.22u
- Monique Billings Over 5.5 PTS4 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberBillings shot just 1-5 from the field (20%) and 2-4 from free throw, combining for a 30% true shooting rate that made up the entire scoring shortfall; despite playing 26 minutes with reasonable opportunity, inefficient shot selection and poor finishing prevented her from reaching 6 points.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMitchell fell just short despite 35 minutes of work, as Las Vegas's elite perimeter defense (allowing 31.3 PPG to guards, league's best) held her to 7-16 shooting (43.8%)—a significant dip from her 27.6 PPG average over her previous five games. The one-point miss came down to shot-making: she needed just 22 points to cash but couldn't overcome the cold shooting night against the WNBA's top-ranked defense.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS13 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberClark shot just 4-14 from the field (28.6%) and 1-8 from three despite playing 26 minutes with 36% usage, relying too heavily on free throws (4-5) to reach only 13 points. The poor efficiency and cold shooting from the field left her three points short of the over.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMitchell shot 7-16 from the field and missed critical attempts down the stretch in a tight game, falling one point short despite her heavy usage and efficient free-throw shooting. The recent 25.9 PPG average didn't materialize due to below-season-average efficiency (58% TS vs her typical output), costing her the half-point push needed to clear 20.5.
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS13 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's efficient recent form evaporated as she shot just 4-14 FG (28.6%) and 1-8 from three, falling two points short despite playing 26 minutes with high usage—a sharp departure from her 21.3 ppg L10 average that justified the aggressive line.
- Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston fell just short of 8.5 rebounds with 7 boards in 25 minutes—a limited run that cut into rebounding opportunity despite solid 63% TS efficiency and 26% usage. Four fouls also likely caused her to play cautiously down the stretch, capping her exposure on the glass.
SEA @ CHI1–4−3.31u
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 15.5 PTS6 vs 15.5no clean explanationHiedeman's 27% TS and 3-11 shooting (27% FG) represented a catastrophic collapse from her L10/L5 averages of 18.5–18.8 PPG, despite logging 30 minutes and maintaining her typical 18% usage rate. The offensive efficiency breakdown—compounded by 0-5 from three—overwhelmed volume to render the over unplayable.
- Natasha Cloud Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud exceeded the under threshold by a single assist despite modest 16% usage, generating 6 dimes in 30 minutes with efficient scoring (85% TS%) that kept her engaged in the offense—the sharp +130 value proved vulnerable to even slight playmaking variance in a close final tally.
- Natasha Cloud Under 11.5 PTS13 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud's efficient 85% true shooting—fueled by a perfect 5-6 from the free-throw line—pushed her just over the line despite 16% usage and a shooting profile (3-5 FG, 2-3 3PT) that aligned with her season trends; the free-throw volume was the outlier that tipped the under.
- Azura Stevens Under 14.5 PTS20 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStevens shot 50% from the field and 50% from three—well above her season efficiency—and played a full 33 minutes without fouling out, allowing her to exceed the 14.5 line by 5.5 points despite matching her recent 12.0 ppg average.
LAS @ MIN4–1+1.39u
- Courtney Williams Under 16.5 PTS19 vs 16.5no clean explanationWilliams exceeded the 16.5 line by converting 7-of-13 shots (53.8% FG) with efficient free-throw shooting (4-5), offsetting her cold 3-point night to reach 19 points on 62% true shooting despite modest 23% usage. The bet missed because she played high-volume interior offense in a competitive game (35 minutes, -3 +/-) rather than defaulting to her recent 13.5 ppg pace.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.