← disciplined_llm · WNBA
2026-07-09
Day by day
these are the disciplined_llm picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
4–6 · 40% · −1.92u across the last 1 days
07/094–640%−1.92u2 games
SEA @ ATL2–5−2.95u
- Jade Melbourne Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMelbourne's 4 assists came on just 24 minutes and 12% usage, suggesting efficient ball movement rather than elevated playmaking volume—she stayed out of foul trouble (4 PF) and maintained her stable role, but the opposition's defensive pressure or game flow created just enough facilitation opportunities to push her over the modest 3.5 line. The one-assist gap was a close miss driven by circumstance rather than a departure from her role.
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationReese operated as a scorer and rebounder rather than a facilitator, posting 27% usage with 18 points and 11 rebounds but just 2 assists despite 30 minutes—her shot-creation role left limited playmaking opportunities.
- Allisha Gray Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray's 5 assists doubled the under projection, driven by a game-high 32 minutes and 24% usage that put her in position to facilitate; she converted that opportunity into 5 dimes against a defense that couldn't contain her playmaking despite the Pinnacle sharp favoring the under.
- Allisha Gray Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray came up short by one board despite 32 minutes and heavy offensive load (24% usage, 7-13 FG), suggesting limited rebounding opportunity or effort in a game that turned into a blowout (+15) where her scoring took priority.
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationJohnson doubled the target with 5 assists in 29 minutes, benefiting from increased offensive load (25% usage) and floor time that extended beyond typical role constraints. The under's vulnerability was exposed by her playmaking upside in a game where she operated as a primary ball-handler rather than a complementary scorer.
IND @ PHO2–1+1.03u
- DeWanna Bonner Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5no clean explanationBonner shot just 4-8 from the field (50% FG) and 1-3 from three despite 27 minutes of run, falling 2.5 points short as her 15% usage rate limited scoring opportunities even in extended playing time.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.