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disciplined_llm
118–159 over 277 priced bets · -42.4u · ROI -15.3% -27.0% to -3.6% · CLV +4.23¢ +3.8% to +4.7%
Losing — the ROI interval sits entirely below zero.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
these are the disciplined_llm picks — the same set listed in the sheet below. The record in the header bar is a different formula, so the two totals will not match.
118–159 · 43% · −42.43u across these days · 3 voided, nothing staked
08/021–150%+0.10u1 game
IND @ MIN1–1+0.10u
- Aliyah Boston Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanation
08/012–167%+1.05u2 games
LVA @ CHI1–1+0.17u
- A'ja Wilson Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanation
NYL @ PHO1–0+0.88u
07/317–1041%−2.58u3 games
DAL @ WAS0–5−5.00u
- Sonia Citron Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Lauren Betts Over 5.5 PTS3 vs 5.5no clean explanation
- Awak Kuier Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul trouble
- Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 REB6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (20 pts on 68% TS%), as her 30 minutes and high usage were concentrated on perimeter scoring rather than offensive glass work in a game that didn't create additional rebounding opportunities for her.
IND @ POR1–1−0.12u
- Monique Billings Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
SEA @ ATL6–4+2.55u
- Rhyne Howard Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 10.5 PTS10 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natisha Hiedeman Under 3.5 REB5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Dominique Malonga Under 8.5 REB13 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
07/305–936%−3.01u3 games
NYL @ LVA1–3−2.18u
- A'ja Wilson Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanation
- A'ja Wilson Over 10.5 REB10 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Breanna Stewart Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanation
MIN @ TOR2–4−1.01u
- Natasha Howard Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Natasha Howard Over 13.5 PTS9 vs 13.5no clean explanation
- Maria Conde Over 10.5 PTS5 vs 10.5no clean explanation
- Kayla McBride Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanation
CON @ CHI2–2+0.18u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanation
- Leila Lacan Over 12.5 PTS12 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
07/291–713%−6.03u2 games
GSV @ PHO0–6−6.00u
- Janelle Salaun Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Janelle Salaun Over 13.5 PTS13 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Kaitlyn Chen Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 AST8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Janelle Salaun Under 11.5 PTS13 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanationCopper's 4 assists exceeded the 2.5 line as she operated as a secondary playmaker alongside elevated offensive usage (28%), facilitating drive-and-kick opportunities in a game where she logged heavy minutes (34) and dominated scoring (27 pts on elite 75% TS).
ATL @ DAL1–1−0.03u
- Brionna Jones Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5no clean explanation
07/285–1229%−7.15u5 games
IND @ SEA0–5−5.00u
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 14.5 PTS16 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Aliyah Boston Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanation
- Natisha Hiedeman Under 2.5 REB6 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Kelsey Mitchell Under 21.5 PTS28 vs 21.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Aliyah Boston Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
CON @ WAS2–5−2.99u
- Sonia Citron Under 16.5 PTS22 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sonia Citron Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Shakira Austin Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 9.5 PTS6 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
NYL @ LAS0–1−1.00u
- Breanna Stewart Under 3.5 AST7 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
POR @ LVA1–0+0.90u
TOR @ MIN2–1+0.94u
- Napheesa Collier Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
07/2214–1844%−3.67u6 games
CHI @ NYL0–4−4.00u
- Breanna Stewart Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Breanna Stewart Under 0.5 3PM2 vs 0.5no clean explanation
- Azura Stevens Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStevens shot just 2-5 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 13% usage rate—well below her typical offensive load—limited her scoring opportunities even though she stayed efficient at the line (4-4 FT).
CON @ IND1–5−3.90u
- Sophie Cunningham Over 9.5 PTS8 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Aliyah Boston Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Lexie Hull Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Over 7.5 PTS1 vs 7.5no clean explanation
MIN @ SEA4–5−1.49u
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTS13 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REB5 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Napheesa Collier Under 14.5 PTS24 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
PHO @ LAS4–3+0.78u
- Erica Wheeler Over 10.5 PTS5 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Dearica Hamby Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5paid over the fair number
- Erica Wheeler Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
LVA @ WAS1–0+0.95u
DAL @ POR4–1+3.99u
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
07/203–1319%−10.67u3 games
NYL @ DAL1–6−5.25u
- Jessica Shepard Under 11.5 REB16 vs 11.5no clean explanation
- Jessica Shepard Under 12.5 REB16 vs 12.5no clean explanation
- Pauline Astier Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5no clean explanation
- Azzi Fudd Over 15.5 PTS15 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 15.5 PTS29 vs 15.5no clean explanationOgunbowale nearly doubled the 15.5 line by dominating usage at 37% while staying efficient from three (3-5) and perfect from the free-throw line (8-8), combining volume with precision to reach 29 points across 38 minutes.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 14.5 PTS29 vs 14.5no clean explanationOgunbowale nearly doubled the projection by playing all 38 minutes and dominating usage at 37%, converting 8-of-8 free throws and hitting timely three-pointers (3-5) to reach 29 points despite a modest 37% field-goal percentage. The Under's cushion evaporated against a player operating as the primary offensive engine in a high-volume role.
LVA @ TOR0–4−4.00u
- Jewell Loyd Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- A'ja Wilson Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Julie Allemand Over 6.5 AST4 vs 6.5no clean explanation
- Isabelle Harrison Under 11.5 PTS26 vs 11.5no clean explanation
MIN @ SEA2–3−1.42u
- Nia Coffey Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5no clean explanation
- Natasha Howard Over 16.5 PTS6 vs 16.5no clean explanation
- Katie Lou Samuelson Under 5.5 PTS7 vs 5.5no clean explanationSamuelson's efficient 2-4 shooting night (50% FG, 67% 3PT) combined with her 15 minutes of run time proved just enough to eclipse the 5.5-point line, as she converted all five of her shot attempts into seven points despite modest usage.
07/195–838%−3.70u3 games
LAS @ DAL2–5−3.49u
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Rae Burrell Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby's 3 assists just cleared the 2.5 line despite modest usage (28%), as her efficiency in the post—shooting 8-for-12—created enough easy passes to role players to push her over the under target.
- Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
CHI @ ATL2–3−0.85u
- Naz Hillmon Over 5.5 REB2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natasha Cloud Over 11.5 PTS7 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanation
CON @ PHO1–0+0.65u
07/184–450%−0.12u2 games
NYL @ IND3–3−0.12u
- Monique Billings Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Kelsey Mitchell Under 23.5 PTS33 vs 23.5no clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5no clean explanation
POR @ MIN1–10.00u
- Courtney Williams Over 5.5 REB2 vs 5.5no clean explanation
07/171–150%−0.15u2 games
LAS @ CHI0–1−1.00u
- Rae Burrell Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell shot just 3-7 from the field (42.9%) despite playing 31 minutes, and her 16% usage rate—well below her typical offensive load—limited scoring opportunities in what became a blowout loss (-21 +/-). The combination of poor efficiency and reduced volume left her 5.5 points short of the 14.5 line.
SEA @ IND1–0+0.85u
07/151–0100%+0.85u1 game
GSV @ IND1–0+0.85u
07/143–443%−1.33u1 game
WAS @ TOR3–4−1.33u
- Laura Juskaite Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upJuskaite grabbed 4 rebounds in 25 minutes despite poor offensive efficiency (3-8 FG), staying active on the glass enough to narrowly clear the 3.5 line and negate what looked like a favorable matchup bet.
- Sonia Citron Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanationCitron exceeded the 2.5 assists line by reaching 4 dimes despite dismal 11% usage and 17% true shooting, suggesting she filled a playmaking role rather than scoring duties in the 31 minutes played. The under missed on volume rather than efficiency—she was a pass-first option in this game despite her typically limited offensive role.
- Shakira Austin Over 3.5 AST0 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin's assist total collapsed entirely—she finished with zero despite 28 minutes and 26% usage, as her role remained almost exclusively interior-focused (10 rebounds, 3 blocks) with no playmaking opportunities generated from that positioning.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 12.5 PTS8 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison's shot selection and efficiency collapsed: she went just 4-10 from the field (40% TS) despite her recent 15-point average, and picked up 6 fouls in 21 minutes that limited her run and aggression, combining for a season-low 8 points.
07/135–183%+4.17u2 games
LAS @ ATL2–0+1.84u
PHO @ MIN3–1+2.33u
- Valeriane Ayayi Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5no clean explanationAyayi grabbed only 1 rebound in 18 minutes despite the team getting significant run, as her 15% usage rate and role as a non-factor on the glass (0-3 FG) left little opportunity to crash the boards. The over required her to stay on court and be involved; instead, limited minutes and a pass-first approach (1 ast on minimal volume) meant she couldn't reach the 5-rebound threshold.
07/1211–1346%−1.77u4 games
IND @ LVA1–7−6.25u
- A'ja Wilson Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass (12 rebounds) and scoring (20 points on 39% usage) but generated only 2 assists in 31 minutes, falling 1.5 short of the over—a usage-heavy performance where she was a scorer and rebounder first rather than a facilitator, compounded by 3 turnovers that limited playmaking opportunities.
- Kelsey Mitchell Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell's 3 assists came on a night where she dominated scoring (27 pts on 69% TS) and played heavy minutes (30), creating natural secondary playmaking opportunities that pushed her over the modest 2.5 threshold in a game Vegas likely priced assuming more balanced offensive distribution.
- Jewell Loyd Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationLoyd played 28 minutes with just 13% usage and took only six shots, limiting her rebounding opportunities in a blowout loss (−30 rating); she also picked up three fouls, which may have constrained her activity on the glass.
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's usage dropped to 16%—well below season norms—limiting her touch and playmaking opportunities despite 32 minutes played. She recorded just 3 assists on 8 FG attempts, indicating minimal ball-handling responsibility in an offensive system that didn't prioritize her as a primary playmaker in this matchup.
- NaLyssa Smith Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSmith's 21 minutes of playing time—likely reduced due to early foul trouble (2 PF)—limited her offensive opportunities despite solid efficiency on 7 FG attempts, leaving her 2.5 points short of the over. The low usage rate of 19% prevented her from reaching the volume needed to hit double digits.
- A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS20 vs 25.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's 39% usage rate looked healthy, but poor efficiency—39.1% from the field and 42% true shooting—combined with limited free-throw volume (just 2 attempts) kept her well short of 25.5 despite playing 31 minutes.
NYL @ TOR2–4−1.94u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS28 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under by shooting 65% TS on 26% usage, going 9-18 from the field and 7-8 from the stripe to nearly double her L10 average of 14.2 points. She played all 33 minutes without foul trouble (3 PF) and capitalized on efficient looks rather than high volume, making this a rare efficiency spike well above her recent scoring norm.
- Julie Allemand Under 7.5 AST10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand exceeded the under by dishing 10 assists despite low scoring involvement (6% usage, 4 pts), operating as a pure facilitator for 34 minutes and running the offense rather than hunting shots. The high assist total came from consistent playmaking rather than any singular hot stretch, making the 7.5 threshold vulnerable to a floor-raiser's distribution role in a full game.
- Nyara Sabally Under 9.5 PTS13 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally exceeded her L5 average by shooting a hot 5-9 from the field (56%), converting all three free throws, and maintaining efficient 63% true shooting over 26 minutes—a marked uptick from her pre-game scoring trend that made the under vulnerable despite her moderate 19% usage rate.
- Nyara Sabally Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally logged 26 minutes—3 more than her season average—and converted 5 of 9 shots to stay engaged, finishing with 7 rebounds despite her recent L5 average of 4.0, the extra run and efficiency keeping her just above the number. The under was always vulnerable to modest volume increases given her per-minute rebounding rate; the modest minutes bump proved enough to break through.
SEA @ WAS4–1+2.98u
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson's 3 assists came despite poor offensive efficiency (2-9 FG, 39% TS), as she was forced into a playmaking role with just 18% usage and managed to facilitate enough to clear the 2.5 line in 31 minutes.
CHI @ DAL4–1+3.44u
- Azzi Fudd Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationFudd's playmaking role expanded in a high-usage game (35 min, 20% usage), and she hit the over mark with exactly 3 assists despite modest shooting efficiency (5-14 FG). The under missed by just one assist in a game where she was heavily involved in the offense.
07/112–433%−1.75u3 games
PHO @ LVA0–2−2.00u
- Valeriane Ayayi Over 9.5 PTS5 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAyayi's 5 points fell well short of the 9.5 line due to poor shot selection and execution—she went 1-for-5 from the field despite logging 31 minutes, and her 13% usage rate and 40% TS% indicate she struggled to create efficient scoring opportunities.
- A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB15 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass with 15 rebounds in 24 minutes—well above the 9.5 line—fueled by elite efficiency (8-16 FG, 59% TS) and high usage (33%) that kept her heavily involved in both ends, while staying out of foul trouble (2 PF) to maximize her rebounding opportunities.
POR @ ATL0–1−1.00u
- Naz Hillmon Under 8.5 PTS15 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon shot 6-11 from the field (54.5%) and played a full 36 minutes, combining for 15 points despite modest 17% usage—efficient scoring volume was enough to clear 8.5 even without high shot attempts. The sharp edge favoring the over (0.5347) proved correct as her elite True Shot percentage (61%) made her limited usage less of a constraint.
NYL @ MIN2–1+1.25u
- Marine Johannes Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes doubled her projected total on 70% true shooting, draining 4 three-pointers in 23 minutes of efficient offensive output that far exceeded the 7.5-point threshold. The under relied on her staying in single digits, but she turned a modest 19% usage rate into elite scoring efficiency that proved too high a bar.
07/106–4 ·1 void60%+1.75u3 games
CHI @ LAS1–2−1.11u
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationOgwumike nearly doubled the assist line with 5 dimes in 33 minutes, operating as a primary playmaker in a game where her 26% usage was heavily weighted toward creating for teammates rather than self-scoring despite her efficient 9-16 shooting. The blowout win (+12 rating) likely kept the game flowing through her hands in a rhythm that favored ball movement over isolation looks.
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationHamby exceeded the 2.5 assist line by recording 3 dimes despite modest usage (22%), benefiting from 30 minutes of floor time and a +12 rating that suggests she operated in flow within a winning game script. The one extra assist came from solid playmaking efficiency rather than a dramatic uptick in ball-handling—she simply didn't turn it over (1 TOV) and stayed engaged throughout the full half-hour.
DAL @ TOR2–1 ·1 void+1.00u
- Jessica Shepard Under 12.5 REB17 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard's 17 rebounds crushed the 12.5 line despite her modest 19% usage, as she played all 40 minutes in a blowout (+13 rating) and dominated the glass on 7-of-9 shooting efficiency. Her last-10 average of 11.9 masked a rebound-heavy game script where limited offensive touches funneled her into crashing opportunities on both ends.
GSV @ CON3–1+1.85u
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton torched the under by shooting 7-12 (58% FG) with efficient finishing at the rim, a dramatic spike from her 9.0 PPG L10 average and well above the 11.5 line despite modest 22% usage. Her 33 minutes and +16 rating indicated a blowout win where she didn't need high volume to exceed the projection.
07/094–640%−1.92u2 games
SEA @ ATL2–5−2.95u
- Jade Melbourne Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMelbourne's 4 assists came on just 24 minutes and 12% usage, suggesting efficient ball movement rather than elevated playmaking volume—she stayed out of foul trouble (4 PF) and maintained her stable role, but the opposition's defensive pressure or game flow created just enough facilitation opportunities to push her over the modest 3.5 line. The one-assist gap was a close miss driven by circumstance rather than a departure from her role.
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationReese operated as a scorer and rebounder rather than a facilitator, posting 27% usage with 18 points and 11 rebounds but just 2 assists despite 30 minutes—her shot-creation role left limited playmaking opportunities.
- Allisha Gray Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray's 5 assists doubled the under projection, driven by a game-high 32 minutes and 24% usage that put her in position to facilitate; she converted that opportunity into 5 dimes against a defense that couldn't contain her playmaking despite the Pinnacle sharp favoring the under.
- Allisha Gray Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray came up short by one board despite 32 minutes and heavy offensive load (24% usage, 7-13 FG), suggesting limited rebounding opportunity or effort in a game that turned into a blowout (+15) where her scoring took priority.
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5no clean explanationJohnson doubled the target with 5 assists in 29 minutes, benefiting from increased offensive load (25% usage) and floor time that extended beyond typical role constraints. The under's vulnerability was exposed by her playmaking upside in a game where she operated as a primary ball-handler rather than a complementary scorer.
IND @ PHO2–1+1.03u
- DeWanna Bonner Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5no clean explanationBonner shot just 4-8 from the field (50% FG) and 1-3 from three despite 27 minutes of run, falling 2.5 points short as her 15% usage rate limited scoring opportunities even in extended playing time.
07/083–350%−0.58u3 games
IND @ LAS0–2−2.00u
- Ariel Atkins Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanationAtkins grabbed one more rebound than the under required despite modest 31 minutes and 17% usage, as her active defense (2 steals, 5 fouls) kept her engaged on the glass in a game Washington won by 7.
- Rae Burrell Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationBurrell's high usage (22%) and extended 36-minute run fueled one extra assist; she stayed out of foul trouble (1 PF) and maintained efficient scoring (67% TS%), allowing her to operate the offense more freely than projected.
GSV @ TOR1–1−0.24u
- Julie Allemand Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand fell one rebound short despite 36 minutes of heavy usage, held back by her 4 personal fouls that limited her inside presence and rebounding opportunities in the paint.
MIN @ CON2–0+1.67u
07/074–3 ·1 void57%+0.69u2 games
CHI @ PHO2–2 ·1 void−0.40u
- Noemie Brochant Over 7.5 PTS0 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBrochant saw 17 minutes but managed just 0-2 FG and 0-2 from three with a 5% usage rate, unable to generate any scoring opportunities despite the sharp lean on the over. The goose egg—combined with limited offensive involvement—made the 7.5-point line impossible to clear.
- Lexi Held Over 9.5 PTS0 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHeld played 27 minutes but went scoreless on just 4 field-goal attempts (9% usage), unable to generate any offensive opportunities despite solid floor time and a +5 rating. The under cashed decisively as she failed to record a single point on an ice-cold 0-for-4 shooting night.
DAL @ NYL2–1+1.09u
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanationOgunbowale managed just 1 assist despite 32 minutes of floor time due to unusually low offensive involvement—her 14% usage rate was well below her season average, limiting opportunities to generate looks for teammates. The combination of poor shooting (3-8 FG, 0-4 3PT) and reduced playmaking role meant she fell well short of the 2.5 assist threshold.
07/065–838%−3.54u3 games
SEA @ LAS1–3−2.19u
- Dearica Hamby Over 7.5 REB4 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby was limited to 29 minutes and pulled down just 4 rebounds despite efficient scoring (6-9 FG), suggesting reduced opportunity and activity on the glass rather than poor rebounding rate. The combination of shallow minutes and 22% usage—well below her typical volume—left insufficient possessions to hit the 7.5 rebound threshold.
- Rae Burrell Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanationBurrell finished with just 1 rebound despite 25 minutes of play, falling well short of the 2.5 line; her inefficiency (2-11 FG, 21% TS) and four turnovers suggest she was off-rhythm throughout and never got into a rhythm to crash the glass consistently.
- Rae Burrell Over 15.5 PTS5 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell shot just 2-11 from the field (18% FG) despite 25 minutes and 28% usage, a catastrophic efficiency collapse that dragged her to 5 points well below the 15.5 line. The 21% true shooting percentage indicates she was ice-cold across the board, making it nearly impossible to hit scoring benchmarks regardless of opportunity.
GSV @ WAS0–2−2.00u
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 9.5 PTS6 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upZandalasini's 6 points fell short of the 9.5 line due to inefficient shot-making (3-8 FG, 0-2 3PT) and limited opportunity despite 15 minutes of play, as her 27% usage rate and 38% true shooting left her unable to reach double digits.
- Gabby Williams Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberWilliams went 0-for-2 from three on just 17 minutes of playing time, unable to generate volume despite 20% usage; her 1-6 overall shooting (17 TS%) suggests she was off the mark early and never found her rhythm.
CON @ MIN4–3+0.66u
- Kayla McBride Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's usage was ball-dominant (31%, 28 pts on 19 FG attempts) but ball-movement limited—6 turnovers and only 2 assists in 38 minutes suggest she looked to score first rather than create, falling short of the 2.5 threshold despite heavy offensive involvement.
- Kayla McBride Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberMcBride's scoring volume (28 pts on 66% TS) dominated her offensive touch, but she recorded just 2 assists despite 38 minutes and 31% usage—a shoot-first performance that left her 1.5 dimes short of the 3.5 line.
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the assist line by operating as a secondary playmaker in extended run (36 minutes, 28% usage), recording 6 dimes despite shooting efficiently (10-21 FG) and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF).
07/053–0100%+2.77u2 games
07/041–325%−1.87u2 games
GSV @ ATL0–3−3.00u
- Jordin Canada Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5no clean explanationCanada's recent 60% over rate on 0.5 threes proved sticky despite modest overall volume, as she hit 1-of-3 from deep in 35 minutes—right in line with her L10 average of 0.8 makes and well above the under threshold. Her elevated minutes and 15% usage ensured enough shot attempts to land the one three needed to bust the under.
- Gabby Williams Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberWilliams torched the under on elite 66% true shooting (7-14 FG, 4-8 from three) and 24% usage in 27 minutes, converting at a rate well above her season average despite the pace-corrected projection of 10.6 PPG. The ATL defense's vulnerability to forwards combined with her hot hand overwhelmed the glacial-tempo thesis that anchored the under.
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS21 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton shot 84% true shooting (6-9 FG, 2-3 3PT, 7-8 FT) and played 30 minutes with elite efficiency, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line despite modest 24% usage. The bet required her to stay under 12 points—a threshold she obliterated on just nine field-goal attempts thanks to near-perfect shooting and free-throw volume (8 attempts).
POR @ SEA1–0+1.13u
07/031–233%−0.93u2 games
MIN @ NYL0–1−1.00u
- Kayla McBride Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's playmaking dried up despite 33 minutes and heavy usage (24%), finishing with just 1 assist while turning it over 3 times in a blowout loss (-17 rating), suggesting the game flow and offensive rhythm didn't support her passing role.
CHI @ LVA1–1+0.07u
- Chennedy Carter Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarter played just 11 minutes with 2 fouls, severely limiting her opportunities to reach 13.5 points on only 1 field goal attempt despite an efficient 106% TS%.
07/021–517%−4.12u2 games
DAL @ CON1–4−3.12u
- Kennedy Burke Over 8.5 PTS8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upBurke fell one point short despite playing 26 minutes; she shot 3-for-6 from the field and missed both three-point attempts, posting a 50% true shooting rate that couldn't compensate for her modest 12% usage rate in the game.
- Aaliyah Edwards Under 8.5 PTS11 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upEdwards exceeded the 8.5 threshold by converting 4-of-7 from the field (57% FG) and 3-of-7 from the line (43% FT) across 19 minutes, combining efficient shooting with moderate volume to reach 11 points despite limited three-point attempts (0-0).
- Jessica Shepard Over 14.5 PTS14 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upShepard fell one point shy despite solid efficiency (60% TS, 6-10 FG) because her 21% usage rate and 30 minutes limited volume—she needed just one more made field goal or free throw to cash the over.
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker doubled her projection by shooting an efficient 5-8 from the field (62.5%) and staying on the floor for a full 30 minutes, well above typical benchmarks for a role player with 15% usage. The combination of elite shooting efficiency and extended playing time transformed what looked like a safe under into a decisive miss.
ATL @ WAS0–1−1.00u
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 11.5 PTS4 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere's 2-6 shooting (33% TS) combined with limited offensive involvement (16% usage) resulted in just 4 points despite playing 24 minutes, well short of the 11.5 target. The inefficiency and low touch rate were the primary culprits in missing what appeared to be a reasonable pregame edge.
06/303–633%−2.95u1 game
LVA @ NYL3–6−2.95u
- Jonquel Jones Over 15.5 PTS9 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones shot just 1-6 from the field (16.7% FG) despite playing 33 minutes, a historic cold night that overwhelmed her 7-8 free-throw performance and rendered the +1.9 edge over the 15.5 line immaterial.
- Marine Johannes Over 7.5 PTS7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes shot just 3-7 (42.9%) from the field in 18 minutes of limited action, falling one point short despite solid efficiency; the under-18-minute role and modest volume (16% usage) meant she lacked the volume opportunities needed to clear 7.5.
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones hit the over by a single assist despite a quiet offensive night (1-6 FG, 13% usage), as she maintained ball movement and playmaking duties across her full 33-minute workload in a blowout win (+17 +/-).
- NaLyssa Smith Over 10.5 PTS9 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upSmith fell 1.5 points short despite solid 50% FG, held back by 5 fewer minutes than her season average (20 vs. 25.5) and reduced usage at 21%, limiting her scoring opportunities.
- Jewell Loyd Over 7.5 PTS5 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd shot just 2-9 from the field (22%) and 1-7 from three despite 32 minutes of playing time, combining poor efficiency (26% TS) with modest 13% usage to fall well short of 7.5 points. Her cold shooting night was the sole factor—three fouls and the game flow didn't significantly limit her opportunity, but her 22% FG% made hitting the over impossible.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS26 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 9-19 FG and 5-13 3PT shooting (47% from three) far exceeded her recent form, and at 33% usage she took enough volume to capitalize on her hot stroke despite playing only 31 minutes. Her last 10 games averaging 10.7 points proved misleading when she flipped the switch to 63% true shooting efficiency.
06/284–736%−2.99u4 games
MIN @ DAL0–3−3.00u
- Courtney Williams Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilliams fell one assist short despite 36 minutes and 23% usage, held back by poor shot creation (5-16 FG, 36% TS) that limited her ability to generate offensive rhythm and secondary playmaking opportunities.
- Natasha Howard Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's assist total fell short despite heavy involvement (36 min, 24% usage, 14 reb) because she operated almost exclusively as a scorer and rebounder, with just 2 dimes on a team-high 17 FG attempts—a usage pattern tilted toward volume shooting rather than playmaking.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale went just 1-for-9 from the field and 1-for-3 from three, finishing well below expectation despite playing 26 minutes; brutal 25% TS% and 19% usage rate indicate she couldn't get into rhythm offensively in a game where Dallas fell behind early (-14 +/-).
LVA @ CHI1–1−0.23u
- Jewell Loyd Over 7.5 PTS6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd played 28 minutes but shot just 2-7 from the field (28.6 FG%) with an inefficient 43% TS, falling one point short despite solid volume—a rare cold night from a reliable scorer that negated the betting edge.
NYL @ GSV1–1−0.04u
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5no clean explanationIonescu's 3-10 shooting (30% FG, 33% 3PT) combined with 26 minutes of playing time left her well short at 9 points, as she struggled with shot selection and efficiency despite a reasonable 24% usage rate.
POR @ WAS2–2+0.28u
- Shakira Austin Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5no clean explanationAustin's 6 assists doubled the 2.5 line, driven by a season-high 47 minutes of floor time that inflated her opportunity to facilitate—she averaged 0.128 assists per minute, well above her typical rate. The blowout nature of the game and her extended run kept her on court as a floor-spacing rim-runner rather than forcing early exit via foul trouble (just 1 PF).
- Megan Gustafson Under 13.5 PTS20 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGustafson torched the under by shooting 7-14 from the field (50%) with a perfect 4-7 from three, converting at 67% true shooting despite modest 17% usage, and played all 46 minutes without fouling out to accumulate 20 points.
06/278–3 ·1 void73%+4.70u3 games
LAS @ IND3–2+0.60u
- Lexie Hull Over 9.5 PTS5 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHull's 2-7 shooting (28.6% FG) and limited opportunities at 14% usage rate left her 4.5 points short of the over, a significant underperformance despite her 22 minutes and positive plus-minus suggesting the team was in control.
- Lexie Hull Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHull grabbed 7 rebounds in 22 minutes despite poor offensive efficiency (2-7 FG), nearly doubling her L5 average of 2.2 and far exceeding the 4.5 line—she was active on the glass early and maintained rebounding activity even as her scoring stalled.
ATL @ SEA2–0 ·1 void+1.74u
PHO @ TOR3–1+2.35u
- Kahleah Copper Under 3.5 REB5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCopper's 5 rebounds came on an unusually high-volume night (34 min, 26% usage, 10-15 FG) where she was heavily featured in the offense rather than playing a pure scoring role; the extra floor time and shot attempts naturally increased her rebound opportunities despite the modest total.
06/265–363%+2.32u3 games
ATL @ GSV0–1−1.00u
- Angel Reese Under 13.5 PTS15 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upReese's 7-8 free-throw shooting (87.5%) padded her total to 15 points despite a modest 4-11 FG; the high volume from the line—accounting for 7 of her 15 points—pushed her over the 13.5 threshold on an otherwise inefficient 36% overall FG rate.
WAS @ CON1–2−1.00u
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 5.5 REB9 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa crushed the glass with 9 rebounds in 30 minutes—well above the 5.5 line—despite modest 22% usage, getting her opportunities through high activity (3 blocks, 2 steals) and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF) to log meaningful playing time.
- Brittney Griner Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGriner fell one assist short despite 35% usage, limited by foul trouble (5 PF in 21 minutes) that curtailed her floor time and ball-handling opportunities in a game that stayed close enough to prevent extended run-and-gun pace.
POR @ CHI4–0+4.32u
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.