← disciplined_llm · WNBA
2026-07-12
Day by day
these are the disciplined_llm picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
11–13 · 46% · −1.77u across the last 1 days
07/1211–1346%−1.77u4 games
IND @ LVA1–7−6.25u
- A'ja Wilson Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass (12 rebounds) and scoring (20 points on 39% usage) but generated only 2 assists in 31 minutes, falling 1.5 short of the over—a usage-heavy performance where she was a scorer and rebounder first rather than a facilitator, compounded by 3 turnovers that limited playmaking opportunities.
- Kelsey Mitchell Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell's 3 assists came on a night where she dominated scoring (27 pts on 69% TS) and played heavy minutes (30), creating natural secondary playmaking opportunities that pushed her over the modest 2.5 threshold in a game Vegas likely priced assuming more balanced offensive distribution.
- Jewell Loyd Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationLoyd played 28 minutes with just 13% usage and took only six shots, limiting her rebounding opportunities in a blowout loss (−30 rating); she also picked up three fouls, which may have constrained her activity on the glass.
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's usage dropped to 16%—well below season norms—limiting her touch and playmaking opportunities despite 32 minutes played. She recorded just 3 assists on 8 FG attempts, indicating minimal ball-handling responsibility in an offensive system that didn't prioritize her as a primary playmaker in this matchup.
- NaLyssa Smith Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSmith's 21 minutes of playing time—likely reduced due to early foul trouble (2 PF)—limited her offensive opportunities despite solid efficiency on 7 FG attempts, leaving her 2.5 points short of the over. The low usage rate of 19% prevented her from reaching the volume needed to hit double digits.
- A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS20 vs 25.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's 39% usage rate looked healthy, but poor efficiency—39.1% from the field and 42% true shooting—combined with limited free-throw volume (just 2 attempts) kept her well short of 25.5 despite playing 31 minutes.
NYL @ TOR2–4−1.94u
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS28 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under by shooting 65% TS on 26% usage, going 9-18 from the field and 7-8 from the stripe to nearly double her L10 average of 14.2 points. She played all 33 minutes without foul trouble (3 PF) and capitalized on efficient looks rather than high volume, making this a rare efficiency spike well above her recent scoring norm.
- Julie Allemand Under 7.5 AST10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand exceeded the under by dishing 10 assists despite low scoring involvement (6% usage, 4 pts), operating as a pure facilitator for 34 minutes and running the offense rather than hunting shots. The high assist total came from consistent playmaking rather than any singular hot stretch, making the 7.5 threshold vulnerable to a floor-raiser's distribution role in a full game.
- Nyara Sabally Under 9.5 PTS13 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally exceeded her L5 average by shooting a hot 5-9 from the field (56%), converting all three free throws, and maintaining efficient 63% true shooting over 26 minutes—a marked uptick from her pre-game scoring trend that made the under vulnerable despite her moderate 19% usage rate.
- Nyara Sabally Under 5.5 REB7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSabally logged 26 minutes—3 more than her season average—and converted 5 of 9 shots to stay engaged, finishing with 7 rebounds despite her recent L5 average of 4.0, the extra run and efficiency keeping her just above the number. The under was always vulnerable to modest volume increases given her per-minute rebounding rate; the modest minutes bump proved enough to break through.
SEA @ WAS4–1+2.98u
- Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson's 3 assists came despite poor offensive efficiency (2-9 FG, 39% TS), as she was forced into a playmaking role with just 18% usage and managed to facilitate enough to clear the 2.5 line in 31 minutes.
CHI @ DAL4–1+3.44u
- Azzi Fudd Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationFudd's playmaking role expanded in a high-usage game (35 min, 20% usage), and she hit the over mark with exactly 3 assists despite modest shooting efficiency (5-14 FG). The under missed by just one assist in a game where she was heavily involved in the offense.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.