← form_wnba · WNBA
2026-07-11
Day by day
these are the form_wnba picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
21–16 · 57% · +1.38u across the last 1 days · 1 voided, nothing staked
07/1121–16 ·1 void57%+1.38u3 games
PHO @ LVA2–7−5.58u
- Jackie Young Over 17.5 PTS8 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's efficiency collapsed to 44% TS on just 16% usage—a historically poor shooting night (3-9 FG, 2-6 3PT) that obliterated her L10 19.5 PPG average despite solid 24-minute run and team blowout context.
- Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS15 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberGray's efficient 6-12 shooting (50% FG, 37.5% 3PT) and elevated usage at 20% in a blowout win (+42) pushed her past 12.5 despite her L10 average of 10.4 PPG, as the game script allowed her to stay on the floor for all 28 minutes without foul trouble.
- Jackie Young Over 16.5 PTS8 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberYoung played just 24 minutes—8 minutes shy of the pre-game projection—and shot 3-9 (33%) with a dismal 44% true shooting, combining for a mere 8 points despite the game's high-scoring total. The shortened run and poor efficiency torpedoed the over regardless of minutes availability.
- A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS21 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson played just 24 minutes—8 fewer than her recent 32.9-minute average—and despite efficient 59% true shooting, her 33% usage rate and early foul trouble (2 PF) limited her to 21 points, 3.5 below the line.
- Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 PTS9 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCopper's ice-cold 4-14 shooting (29% FG, 32% TS%) and uncharacteristic 0-0 from the free-throw line derailed the over despite playing 29 minutes at elevated usage (27%), a stark collapse from her recent 25–26 ppg form. The -41 rating suggests a blowout environment that limited her volume and efficiency opportunities.
- Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 PTS9 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCopper's catastrophic 4-14 FG (29% from the field) and 1-6 from three despite playing 29 minutes and maintaining her usual 27% usage rate torpedoed the over; a -41 +/- suggests she faced a blowout environment that limited her offensive rhythm.
POR @ ATL3–3 ·1 void−0.55u
- Carla Leite Over 13.5 PTS13 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationLeite fell one point short despite strong efficiency (59% TS, 8-9 FT), undone by poor field-goal shooting (2-7 FG) and limited opportunities in 26 minutes with 31% usage. The free-throw volume alone kept her close, but cold two-point shooting prevented her from clearing 13.5.
- Naz Hillmon Under 9.5 PTS15 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberHillmon shot 6-11 (55%) from the field with efficient free-throw usage (2-3), a sharp uptick from her L5 average of 3.8 points, and played 36 minutes despite the game staying close enough to keep her on the floor rather than in the bench role that typically limited her scoring. Her 61% true shooting and 17% usage rate still trailed her season norms, but the volume and efficiency combination proved just enough to clear 9.5.
- Naz Hillmon Under 5.5 REB8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberHillmon crushed the boards with 8 rebounds despite matching her season average in usage (17%), getting a boost from 36 minutes—10 minutes above her pre-game baseline—in a competitive game that stayed tight enough to keep her on the floor. The elevated playing time, combined with her 6 offensive rebounds, easily cleared the 5.5 line.
NYL @ MIN16–6+7.51u
- Breanna Stewart Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStewart fell one rebound short despite playing 37 minutes; she grabbed only 7 boards on 16 FG attempts, suggesting limited offensive rebounding activity and a lower-volume night that didn't generate the extra possession opportunities needed to clear the 7.5 threshold.
- Breanna Stewart Over 18.5 PTS17 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStewart played her expected 37 minutes in a competitive game, but inefficient shooting (7-16 FG, 43.8%) and uncharacteristically low usage (24%) held her to 17 points—one short of the 18.5 line despite elevated playing time.
- Marine Johannes Under 6.5 PTS14 vs 6.5no clean explanationJohannes torched the line on 70% true shooting, going 5-10 from the field with 4-9 from three, a sharp departure from her recent L5 average of 4.6 points on much cooler efficiency. She also played 23 minutes—her highest in the recent sample—giving her more opportunities to exceed the 6.5-point threshold.
- Marine Johannes Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes doubled her projected total on 70% true shooting, draining 4 three-pointers in 23 minutes of efficient offensive output that far exceeded the 7.5-point threshold. The under relied on her staying in single digits, but she turned a modest 19% usage rate into elite scoring efficiency that proved too high a bar.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS25 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's elite 57% true shooting on 31% usage—fueled by a perfect 4-for-4 night from the stripe and efficient 9-for-20 overall—pushed her well over the 15.5 threshold despite modest three-point volume (3-12). She played 35 minutes without foul trouble, giving her the volume and efficiency runway to hit 25 points in a game where the offense clicked.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS25 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under by playing 35 minutes (6 more than projected) and shooting an efficient 57% TS on 31% usage, converting 9-of-20 from the field including 4 foul shots with no fouls to limit her floor time. The game flow and blowout margin (+7) allowed her to stay on the court and accumulate volume in a way the tight 3.5-point spread and 173.5 total suggested wouldn't materialize.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.