← system_lineedges · WNBA
2026-07-10
Day by day
these are the system_lineedges picks — the book grading is currently serving, and the same set listed in the sheet below. The season figure in the header bar is that same book over the whole season; this is a recent window of it.
6–6 · 50% · −1.84u across the last 1 days
07/106–650%−1.84u3 games
GSV @ CON0–2−2.00u
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton torched the under by shooting 7-12 (58% FG) with efficient finishing at the rim, a dramatic spike from her 9.0 PPG L10 average and well above the 11.5 line despite modest 22% usage. Her 33 minutes and +16 rating indicated a blowout win where she didn't need high volume to exceed the projection.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa exceeded her season trend with 4 assists despite modest 25 minutes and 36% usage, likely benefiting from increased playmaking opportunities in a game where she recorded 8 rebounds and saw elevated ball-handling responsibilities. The pre-game under was vulnerable given her borderline touch to 2.5 with only a 4.2-percentage-point edge in implied probability over fair value.
CHI @ LAS4–3−0.25u
- Ariel Atkins Under 9.5 PTS17 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberAtkins torched the under with an unusually efficient 7-13 shooting night (54% FG) despite modest 21% usage, converting at a 63% true shooting rate that far exceeded her season baseline and the game script. The sharp under thesis crumbled on her hot hand—she simply shot the lights out in 29 minutes rather than the inefficient, limited-volume night the projection anticipated.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded her season L10 assist average (4.7) by operating as the primary ball-handler in a blowout win (+19), tallying 8 dimes across 28 minutes despite modest 18% usage. Her elevated assist total came from increased playmaking responsibility in a game flow that favored pace and spacing rather than the slower, isolation-heavy possessions that had limited her to sub-6 assist games in recent weeks.
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationHamby exceeded the 2.5 assist line by recording 3 dimes despite modest usage (22%), benefiting from 30 minutes of floor time and a +12 rating that suggests she operated in flow within a winning game script. The one extra assist came from solid playmaking efficiency rather than a dramatic uptick in ball-handling—she simply didn't turn it over (1 TOV) and stayed engaged throughout the full half-hour.
DAL @ TOR2–1+0.41u
- Isabelle Harrison Under 7.5 REB8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberHarrison's elite 80% shooting efficiency (8-10 FG) kept her on the floor for a full 26 minutes despite the team's blowout loss, and she grabbed 8 boards on just 22% usage—matching her L5 average of 7.2 and exceeding the 7.5 line by one rebound in a game where volume should have favored the under.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.