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system_lineedges

1238–775 over 2013 priced bets · -36.9u · ROI -1.8% -5.4% to +1.7% · CLV +1.19¢ +1.1% to +1.3%

Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.

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Latest 23 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: system_lineedges.

639–360 · 64% · −84.22u across the last 23 days · 1 voided, zero benchmark units

10/2618–869%−2.72u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-26 →

ATL @ GSV18–8−2.72u
  • Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Under 11.5 REB15 vs 11.5paid over the fair number
  • Gabby Williams Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Gabby Williams Over 9.5 PTS9 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Angel Reese Under 12.5 REB15 vs 12.5no clean explanation
10/2432–1174%−3.32u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-24 →

GSV @ ATL32–11−3.32u
  • Jordin Canada Over 6.5 AST4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS8 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Angel Reese Over 9.5 PTS8 vs 9.5no clean explanation
  • Angel Reese Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5no clean explanation
  • Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanation
  • Allisha Gray Over 9.5 PTS5 vs 9.5no clean explanation
10/1736–2361%−12.64u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-17 →

ATL @ GSV36–23−12.64u
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 7.5 PTS3 vs 7.5no clean explanationHayes went 1-for-12 from the field (8.3% FG) despite playing 24 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 8 points when she scored just 3. Her historically poor shooting night—compounded by 0 made free throws—doomed the over despite adequate opportunity and minutes.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberHillmon's playmaking evaporated despite 30 minutes on court—she recorded zero assists while turning the ball over once, suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game's flow.
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner played just 13 minutes with a 7% usage rate and went 1-2 from the field, severely limiting her scoring opportunities well below the 7.5-point threshold. The minimal playing time and shot volume—not poor efficiency—were the primary factors in the missed over.
  • Jordin Canada Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada played 38 minutes but shot just 3-9 from the field (33%) with a 40% true shooting percentage, falling well short of the scoring volume needed to clear 11.5 despite her high usage rate of 16%.
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes' 1-for-12 shooting night (8% FG) fell well short of the offensive output needed to clear 8.5 points, as poor shot selection and execution—not playing time or foul trouble—sank the over.
  • Gabby Williams Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams fell one assist short despite heavy offensive usage (35%), as she prioritized scoring (26 pts on 22 attempts) over playmaking in a game where the team got out to an early lead (+16 final margin).
10/0952–2865%−12.90u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-09 →

ATL @ NYL25–17−9.87u
  • Pauline Astier Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier played only 8 minutes with minimal involvement (12% usage), leaving her no opportunity to accumulate the 2 rebounds needed to clear the over. Her limited court time and complete absence from the glass made the 1.5 rebound line unsustainable.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich played heavy minutes (37) but generated minimal rebounding activity, finishing with just 2 boards despite 12% usage—a reflection of her perimeter-heavy role and limited interior presence in a game where she struggled shooting (2-7 FG). The combination of low usage and her positioning kept her off the glass despite the extended run.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationFiebich played heavy minutes (37) but saw minimal rebounding opportunities, finishing with just 2 boards despite 12% usage; her 2-7 shooting kept her on the perimeter rather than crashing the glass, and three personal fouls likely made her cautious about aggressive rebounding.
  • Rhyne Howard Under 20.5 PTS21 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's efficient 7-21 shooting night (33% FG, 40% 3PT) combined with 38 minutes of heavy usage (30%) to push her just over the line at 21 points, as Atlanta leaned on her scoring in a close contest.
  • Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationJones stayed on court for all 38 minutes and seized playmaking opportunities in a high-usage game (26%), finishing one assist above the line despite modest assist volume. Her dominance in scoring (26 pts on elite 71% TS) and rebounding (14) kept her involved in the offense enough to reach 3 dimes.
  • Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleAstier logged just 8 minutes with 12% usage, providing minimal opportunity to accumulate boards, and failed to secure a single rebound in that limited run.
GSV @ LVA27–11−3.03u
  • Stephanie Talbot Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationTalbot's minimal 5% usage rate and 0-for-2 shooting limited her involvement on the glass, resulting in just 2 rebounds across 21 minutes—she needed at least one more board to clear the over. Her restricted role and lack of offensive touches kept her from the glass-heavy activity required to hit 3+ boards.
  • Stephanie Talbot Over 4.5 PTS0 vs 4.5no clean explanationTalbot played 21 minutes but went scoreless on 2 FG attempts and 2 three-point attempts, finishing 0-for-4 from the field with just 5% usage rate. Despite the playing time, she couldn't generate any offensive production to clear the modest 4.5-point line.
  • Tiffany Hayes Under 2.5 REB6 vs 2.5no clean explanationHayes doubled the projected rebound total with 6 boards in 22 minutes, capitalizing on extended opportunity and active rebounding effort despite shooting just 4-14 from the field.
  • Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST2 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage and 42 minutes on the floor, tallying just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times—a combination of ball-handling issues and the team's offensive struggles (evident in her -10 rating) that prevented her from facilitating at the expected rate.
  • Jackie Young Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung played 42 minutes with heavy usage (27%) but generated just 2 assists while turning the ball over 5 times, suggesting she was attacking downhill rather than facilitating, and picked up 5 fouls that limited her ability to dictate tempo. A blowout loss (-10 +/-) in which she shot inefficiently (6-16 FG) likely forced Las Vegas into isolation-heavy, low-rhythm offense rather than the ball-movement sets needed to accumulate assists.
  • Gabby Williams Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanationWilliams shot her way to 16 points on heavy usage (33%) but recorded zero rebounds across 28 minutes, an unusual outcome that sank the over; her offensive focus and positioning likely kept her away from the glass despite solid court time.
10/0761–1284%+9.54u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-07 →

LVA @ GSV26–7+1.68u
  • Kaila Charles Under 1.5 AST2 vs 1.5no clean explanationCharles hit the Over with just 2 assists in 17 minutes—a modest volume, but enough to clear the 1.5 line despite negligible offensive production (1-3 FG, 12% usage). She stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and got enough floor time to record that second helper.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 25.5 PTS24 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell just short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she generated only 24 points in 36 minutes with 29% usage—she needed one more scoring possession to clear 25.5. The tight margin suggests near-elite efficiency couldn't overcome modest shot volume on the night.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS24 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell one point short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she didn't get enough volume—29% usage and 36 minutes limited her shot diet just enough to miss the over by a single point.
  • Jackie Young Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanationYoung played 37 minutes but grabbed zero rebounds despite logging heavy usage (18%), suggesting she was positioned as a perimeter facilitator rather than a rebounder in this game. Five personal fouls may have also limited her ability to pursue boards aggressively near the basket.
  • Jackie Young Over 14.5 PTS14 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung fell just short despite playing 37 minutes and attempting 13 shots, held back by poor 2-7 field-goal shooting (29%) that limited her to exactly 14 points. She stayed efficient from three (2-4) and the free-throw line (8-10), but the lack of makes from the floor left her one point shy of the over.
  • Veronica Burton Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanationBurton logged 28 minutes with solid efficiency (71% TS) but grabbed only 1 rebound despite the playing time, suggesting limited box-out opportunities or positioning away from the glass in a game flow that didn't generate rebounding chances for her role.
NYL @ ATL35–5+7.86u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 29.5 PTS35 vs 29.5no clean explanationStewart's elite efficiency—11-21 FG (52%) and 11-13 FT (85%)—combined with 43 minutes and 32% usage to propel her 5.5 points over the line. Her 66% true shooting was well above her season average, and the high volume of free throws (13 attempts) proved decisive in busting the under.
  • Pauline Astier Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier managed only 1 rebound in 14 minutes despite taking 6 shots, as her limited floor time and lack of offensive rebounding opportunities kept her well short of the 2.5 mark. Her 25% usage rate and early foul trouble (1 PF in sparse minutes) restricted her ability to crash the glass consistently.
  • DeWanna Bonner Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner hit the over by one assist despite shooting poorly (2-11 FG), as her 34 minutes of floor time and ball-handling role kept her in position to record multiple dimes even when her scoring touch abandoned her.
  • Pauline Astier Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAstier played just 14 minutes and grabbed only 1 rebound, far short of the 3.5 over; limited run and a modest usage rate (25%) kept her off the glass and unable to accumulate boards.
  • Angel Reese Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationReese fell one rebound short despite playing 39 minutes and logging 23% usage, held back by foul trouble (5 PF) that likely limited her interior activity and rebounding opportunities late in the game.
10/0442–3555%−19.91u2 games

permalink to 2026-10-04 →

LVA @ GSV18–20−13.70u
  • Gabby Williams Under 4.5 REB11 vs 4.5no clean explanationWilliams dominated the glass with 11 rebounds across 34 minutes, more than doubling the 4.5 line, as her 31% usage rate and clean foul trouble (0 PF) allowed her to stay on the court and crash consistently on both ends.
  • Veronica Burton Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5no clean explanationBurton was limited to 18 minutes and finished with just 1 assist despite needing 4, as poor shooting (1-6 FG, 23% TS) and low usage (23%) kept her out of rhythm as a playmaker. The combination of restricted minutes and inefficiency shut down her assist opportunities well short of the Over.
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTS3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHayes shot just 1-for-4 from the field and 1-for-4 from the line while logging only 11 minutes, leaving her well short of the 8.5-point line. Her 26% true shooting and limited floor time were the primary culprits in a significant underperformance.
  • Chelsea Gray Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray fell one assist short despite playing 36 minutes and logging 26% usage, hampered by a quiet offensive night (5-14 FG) that limited her playmaking opportunities and forced her into a scoring role rather than a facilitating one.
  • Gabby Williams Under 20.5 PTS25 vs 20.5no clean explanationWilliams shot 50% from the field and 57% from three—well above her season averages—en route to 25 points in 34 minutes, exceeding the 20.5 total despite modest usage at 31%.
  • Jackie Young Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung's ice-cold 4-15 shooting (26.7% FG) and 37% true shooting sank the over despite heavy usage and full availability; she needed just one more point but couldn't find it on a night where her shot simply wasn't falling.
NYL @ ATL24–15−6.22u
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS27 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu torched the under, shooting 10-20 from the field (50%) and 3-8 from three while logging 34 minutes and commanding 35% usage—well above what's needed to clear 15.5 points. Her elite 62% true shooting efficiency and high volume made the under untenable.
  • Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the 2.5 assists line by dishing 4 assists while playing a full 32 minutes with elevated usage (17%), as the Liberty leaned on her playmaking from the post more than typical. The under missed despite modest offensive efficiency because she operated as a secondary facilitator alongside heavier volume touches in what appeared to be an offensive system adjustment.
  • Jordin Canada Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanationCanada's offensive usage stayed low at 23% despite her efficient 82 TS%, as she prioritized scoring (25 points on 14 FG attempts) over playmaking in the flow of the offense. She fell one assist short, finishing with 4 dimes while committing 2 turnovers in 32 minutes.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 14.5 PTS27 vs 14.5no clean explanationIonescu torched the line on 10-20 shooting (50% FG) and 4-4 from the free-throw line, nearly doubling the under projection with her 62% true shooting and elite 35% usage rate over 34 minutes.
  • Breanna Stewart Over 5.5 REB2 vs 5.5no clean explanationStewart's scoring punch (19 points on efficient 61% TS) kept her on the floor for 40 minutes, but she pulled down just 2 rebounds despite the heavy usage, likely due to poor positioning or her team controlling the glass elsewhere in a close game. The defensive activity (3 steals, 3 blocks) suggests she was tasked defensively rather than crashing the boards, leaving her well short of the 5.5 line.
  • Pauline Astier Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationAstier finished with just 1 assist despite 21 minutes and solid 64% TS%, as her offensive role centered on scoring (9 points on 4-7 shooting) rather than playmaking in a game where she logged only 19% usage. The lack of ball-handling opportunities in her limited offensive touches made the over on assists difficult to hit.
10/0222–1559%−6.28u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-02 →

DAL @ GSV22–15−6.28u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers played a full 38 minutes but crashed the glass just once despite high usage (26%), as she functioned primarily as a perimeter scorer and facilitator (10 FT attempts, 6 assists) rather than a rebounder in this matchup.
  • Janelle Salaun Over 7.5 PTS3 vs 7.5game script — blowout or foul troubleSalaun saw just 8 minutes of action and shot 1-for-4 from the field, falling well short of the 7.5-point line with only 3 points. The combination of limited playing time and poor shooting efficiency (25% FG) made it impossible to reach the over.
  • Awak Kuier Over 6.5 PTS6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberKuier fell one point short despite efficient 75% true shooting and 33 minutes of floor time, undone by minimal usage (8%) that limited her scoring opportunities despite converting 3 of 4 from the field.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's shot-heavy usage (44%) and high volume (21 FG attempts) left little room for playmaking, and she turned the ball over 5 times while recording just 2 assists—well short of the 3.5 line despite her 30-point performance.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 PTS17 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationBueckers fell one point short despite 38 minutes and 26% usage, held back by poor shot selection: she connected on just 3 of 14 field goals (21%), with her 10-for-10 free-throw performance unable to compensate for the ice-cold shooting from the floor.
  • Aziaha James Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5game script — blowout or foul troubleJames shot just 1-for-5 from the field and fouled out with only 8 minutes played, making it impossible to reach the over despite a respectable usage rate. Her 20% true shooting was a killer—she couldn't convert opportunities when she had them.
10/0123–11 ·1 void68%−6.28u1 game

permalink to 2026-10-01 →

IND @ LVA23–11 ·1 void−6.28u
  • Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS23 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray exploded well beyond expectation on 8-15 shooting (53% FG) and a perfect 6-6 from the line, nearly doubling the 13.5 total despite modest 25% usage, powered by elite 65% true shooting efficiency.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's offensive burden was so heavy—31% usage with 36 points on 37 minutes—that she operated almost exclusively as a scorer rather than a facilitator, resulting in just 1 assist despite elite efficiency. The Las Vegas attack ran through her scoring rather than playmaking, making the over on assists a victim of her dominant but ball-dominant performance.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationClark played 37 minutes with high usage (29%) but grabbed just 2 rebounds, falling short of the 2.5 line; she was primarily facilitating (4 ast) rather than crashing the glass, and her team's poor efficiency (-14 +/-) limited offensive rebounding opportunities.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 7.5 AST4 vs 7.5no clean explanationClark's assist total was crushed by a season-high six turnovers and inefficient shot creation (6-18 FG, 29% usage), leaving her unable to generate enough ball movement and helper opportunities despite playing the full 37 minutes. The low-efficiency shooting forced her into isolation mode rather than playmaking rhythm, resulting in just 4 dimes well short of the 7.5 threshold.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5no clean explanationClark's 4 assists fell one short despite 37 minutes and high usage (29%), held back by 6 turnovers and an off shooting night (6-18 FG, 3-12 3PT) that limited her rhythm and playmaking opportunities.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationWilson dominated scoring and rebounding (36 pts, 10 reb on elite efficiency), but operated almost entirely as a finisher rather than a facilitator—her 1 assist fell short of the 2+ needed despite 37 minutes of play, indicating the offensive flow ran through her as a scorer, not a playmaker.
09/3052–3560%−15.56u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-30 →

GSV @ DAL25–20−11.39u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 14.5 PTS10 vs 14.5no clean explanationBueckers' 3-13 shooting (23% FG) and 34% true shooting despite logging 43 minutes left her well short of the over, as inefficient scoring and low usage (18%) prevented her from reaching 15 points needed.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 17.5 PTS10 vs 17.5no clean explanationBueckers shot just 3-13 from the field (23%) despite logging 43 minutes, and her 18% usage rate kept her well below the scoring threshold needed to hit the over. A combination of poor efficiency and limited offensive involvement held her to 10 points, 7.5 shy of the line.
  • Gabby Williams Under 19.5 PTS36 vs 19.5no clean explanationWilliams exploded for 36 points on an elite 69% true shooting (12-23 FG, 5-12 3PT, 7-7 FT) while commanding 36% usage over 37 minutes, nearly doubling the 19.5-point line with a career-caliber shooting performance.
  • Jessica Shepard Over 9.5 PTS4 vs 9.5no clean explanationShepard played heavy minutes (41) but was nearly invisible on offense, shooting just 2-5 from the field and generating only 9% usage—well below her typical volume—to finish with just 4 points despite the extended run.
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 7.5 PTS6 vs 7.5no clean explanationHayes fell just short despite efficient shooting (4-4 FT, 63% TS) because she managed only 1-for-3 from the field in 15 minutes, with four fouls limiting her run and keeping her usage at just 24%.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationThornton grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, reaching 6 boards in 31 minutes despite modest 15% usage; she stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and remained on the floor for the full game to accumulate the extra glass.
ATL @ WAS27–15−4.17u
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberBonner's limited 14-minute run and low 20% usage rate gave her minimal playmaking opportunity, and she recorded zero assists despite shooting efficiently, resulting in a complete miss on the over. Foul trouble (3 PF) likely restricted her floor time and prevented the ball-handling role needed to accumulate assists.
  • Georgia Amoore Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore's catastrophic 1-5 shooting (20% TS) and 0-4 from three—combined with just 11% usage despite 28 minutes—left her well short of 7.5 points; she scored only 2 and couldn't generate offensive opportunities even with extended floor time.
  • Jordin Canada Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberCanada nearly doubled the projection with 7 rebounds in 35 minutes, significantly outpacing her season averages likely due to extended floor time and elevated usage in a blowout win (+23) where she played heavy minutes without foul trouble (4 PF).
  • Kiki Iriafen Under 1.5 AST4 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIriafen's 4 assists more than doubled the 1.5 line, driven by 36 minutes of heavy court time and a team-high 16 rebounds that created natural playmaking opportunities from the post and in transition.
  • Lauren Betts Over 4.5 PTS0 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts saw limited run (11 minutes) with minimal offensive opportunities (12% usage), going scoreless on her lone field-goal attempt in what appears to have been a blowout situation (-6 +/-). The restricted role and low shot volume made it nearly impossible to reach 4.5 points.
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5no clean explanationBonner was limited to just 14 minutes and managed only 2 rebounds despite solid efficiency, as limited floor time and low usage (20%) prevented her from reaching the rebounding volume needed to clear 3.5. Three personal fouls further restricted her availability and board opportunities.
09/2951–2666%−5.89u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-29 →

MIN @ NYL27–19−6.47u
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 29 minutes, held back by a low usage rate (9%) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and compete for boards.
  • Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberWilliams nearly doubled the projected total, grabbing 8 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy involvement while posting a 24% usage rate that kept her in rebounding position throughout the game. The under missed decisively due to her elevated floor time and offensive workload creating consistent opportunities on the glass despite modest scoring efficiency.
  • Courtney Williams Under 12.5 PTS18 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under by shooting 8-of-17 from the field (47%) and playing all 38 minutes, generating 24% usage in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF. Her efficient scoring night on high volume and heavy minutes availability was the key driver in surpassing 12.5 points.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu exceeded the under on efficient shooting, going 7-15 from the field (47%) with 4 made threes despite modest usage, and played all 33 available minutes without foul trouble to compile her 18 points. Her 60% true shooting and elevated three-point volume (10 attempts) proved enough to clear 15.5 in a blowout where New York's +15 margin allowed her to stay on the floor.
  • Olivia Miles Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5no clean explanationMiles played just 17 minutes and finished with only 2 rebounds, falling short of the 3.5 over due to limited floor time and a scoreless offensive game (1-8 FG) that likely kept her on the bench in the second half.
  • Olivia Miles Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationMiles fell just short with 2 rebounds in 17 minutes of limited action, her playing time constrained likely due to early foul trouble (3 PF) and inefficient offensive performance that may have kept her on the bench during crucial stretches.
LVA @ IND24–7+0.58u
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's assist total fell short despite heavy offensive usage (29%), as she took 16 shot attempts and 13 free throws, leaving limited ball-movement opportunities in a game where Las Vegas struggled overall (-16 rating). Four turnovers and a shoot-first role in a competitive contest limited her playmaking ceiling.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS22 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilson shot just 5-11 from the field despite playing 34 minutes and maintaining high usage at 29%, falling 2.5 points short as her 45% FG% couldn't overcome the modest volume. Her strong 12-13 free throw shooting kept her close, but the field-goal inefficiency—particularly the 0-1 from three—prevented her from clearing the modest 24.5 threshold.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5no clean explanationMitchell put up 26 points on high volume (34 min, 26% usage) but operated almost entirely as a scorer rather than a facilitator, recording zero assists despite significant playing time—a stark departure from assist expectations for a primary ball-handler in a tight game (+3 margin).
  • Chelsea Gray Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanationGray played 37 minutes but pulled down just 1 rebound, well below the 2.5 line, as she operated primarily in a facilitator role (7 assists) rather than attacking the glass or the paint on a team that shot poorly overall. The Las Vegas backcourt struggled to generate offensive rebounding opportunities, limiting her path to the boards despite significant floor time.
  • Caitlin Clark Under 10.5 AST15 vs 10.5no clean explanationClark's 15 assists came in a high-volume offensive game (32% usage, 68% TS%) where she dominated as the primary playmaker, easily clearing the 10.5 line. The under was a misjudgment of her usage rate and the offensive pace of a game where Indiana controlled the tempo.
  • Makayla Timpson Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairgame script — blowout or foul troubleTimpson played just 9 minutes and pulled down only 4 rebounds, falling one short of the 4.5 line; limited bench role and early foul trouble (1 PF in minimal time) prevented her from getting the volume needed to hit the over.
09/27120–5469%−6.84u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-27 →

IND @ LVA22–11−5.93u
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's historic scoring efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) made her the focal point of the offense, but her high usage rate (32%) and dominant post presence left little opportunity for playmaking—she recorded just 2 assists despite 35 minutes of elite individual scoring.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB16 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's elite efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) kept her on the floor for all 35 minutes, and her 32% usage rate generated enough possessions to rack up 16 boards—well above the 9.5 line despite only fouling three times in a blowout win.
  • Sophie Cunningham Under 7.5 PTS13 vs 7.5no clean explanationCunningham's perfect 4-4 free-throw shooting and 50% three-point efficiency (3-6) pushed her to 13 points despite modest volume, nearly doubling the under as she converted at an elite 84% true shooting clip in 29 minutes.
  • Sophie Cunningham Under 8.5 PTS13 vs 8.5no clean explanationCunningham's perfect 4-for-4 from the free-throw line and efficient 3-for-6 three-point shooting (50%) pushed her well over the 8.5-point line despite modest usage, as she converted at an 84% true-shooting rate in 29 minutes.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS14 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray's efficient 4-8 shooting (50% FG) combined with a 6-7 free-throw line performance pushed her past the under despite modest volume, as she capitalized on high-efficiency looks in 34 minutes of play.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 13.5 PTS14 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberGray pushed just over the line with 14 points on efficient 63% true shooting, converting 6-of-7 free throws to make up for modest field-goal volume (4-8 FG) in her 34 minutes of play.
WAS @ ATL35–17−4.90u
  • Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, held back by minimal usage (8%) and a box-out role that limited her opportunities on the glass in a game without significant volume demands.
  • Lauren Betts Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts went 1-for-4 from the field with a 25% true shooting percentage, well below the scoring efficiency needed to hit 5.5 points in 23 minutes of play. Her 11% usage rate and shooting struggles—missing 3-of-4 attempts—left her well short of the projection.
  • Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOnyenwere grabbed 4 rebounds in 26 minutes despite shooting just 3-9 from the field, as she stayed active on the glass even when her offensive touches weren't falling. The under missed because she reached the mark through volume availability rather than efficiency—she logged solid floor time and pulled down boards at a reasonable rate despite the poor shooting night.
  • Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray was a pure scorer tonight, posting 22 points on efficient shooting (60% TS) but recorded zero assists despite 35 minutes of play—she operated almost exclusively as a volume scorer rather than a facilitator, with her 23% usage channeled entirely into shot attempts rather than playmaking.
DAL @ GSV32–16−1.00u
  • Janelle Salaun Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5no clean explanationSalaun fell one rebound short despite playing 21 minutes, finishing with just 2 boards while posting a dismal 13% usage rate and shooting 1-for-6 from the field. Her minimal offensive involvement limited her opportunities to crash the glass, and the blowout margin (+7 despite poor efficiency) likely reduced her rebounding opportunities in a game flow that didn't demand her presence down the stretch.
  • Janelle Salaun Over 4.5 PTS3 vs 4.5no clean explanationSalaun's 1-6 shooting night (16.7% FG) left her well short despite 21 minutes of action; poor shot selection and execution—particularly 1-4 from three—prevented her from reaching the 5-point threshold needed to cash the over.
  • Awak Kuier Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberKuier fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG) that limited her involvement and kept her off the glass in a lopsided game where she finished -25. Her 15% usage rate indicates minimal touches and opportunities to crash the boards.
  • Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun grabbed just 2 rebounds in 21 minutes despite decent playing time, falling 2 short of the 3.5 line—her limited opportunities on the glass were compounded by inefficient offensive play (1-6 FG) that kept her out of rhythm and reduced her involvement in hustle situations.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberOgunbowale shot just 2-7 from the field despite playing 26 minutes, and while she converted all six free throws, the inefficient field-goal performance (28.6% FG) left her three points short of the over. Her 21% usage rate and modest 52% true shooting capped her scoring ceiling in a game where Dallas fell into a blowout (-31 +/-).
  • Gabby Williams Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilliams exceeded the assist line by one, reaching 4 dimes while playing a full 27 minutes with high usage (30%), giving her plenty of opportunities to facilitate in a blowout win (+27).
NYL @ MIN31–10+4.99u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS34 vs 22.5paid over the fair numberStewart torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 11-18 from the field and 10-12 from the stripe for a 73% true shooting rate while logging a game-high 38 minutes in a blowout. Her 34% usage rate and near-perfect free-throw shooting (83%) transformed what looked like a modest scoring line into a 34-point performance.
  • Napheesa Collier Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCollier fell just short with 5 rebounds despite 33 minutes of play, held back by the Lynx's offensive struggles (43% TS) that limited second-chance opportunities and kept the game's pace subdued. She also picked up 5 fouls, which may have caused her to play more cautiously down the stretch when rebounds were needed most.
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 12 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy usage (34%), converting at an elite 73% TS and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF), far exceeding the 9.5 threshold.
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanationIonescu drew just 28 minutes and despite solid playmaking (6 ast), completely whiffed on the glass with zero rebounds in a game where she didn't crash the boards—a stark departure from the rebounding activity needed to hit 2.5. Limited minutes and zero offensive rebounding activity made the over an uphill climb from the start.
  • Olivia Miles Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5no clean explanationMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) despite playing 30 minutes, and her 40% true shooting—well below her season average—left her 3.5 points short of the over.
  • Olivia Miles Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMiles fell just short on an inefficient night, shooting 3-12 from the field (25% FG) despite playing 30 minutes with solid usage at 27%. Her reliance on free throws (4-4) couldn't compensate for a cold shooting performance that limited her to 11 points.
09/243–443%−1.91u3 games

permalink to 2026-09-24 →

IND @ MIN0–3−3.00u
  • Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS2 vs 21.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three, combining for just 2 points in 18 minutes despite 30% usage, as historically poor efficiency derailed the over by 19.5 points. The 8% true shooting percentage was the primary culprit—she simply couldn't convert looks that were available within her usage rate.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS2 vs 20.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three despite 30% usage, posting an 8% true shooting percentage—a historically poor offensive night that made the 20.5-point line impossible to reach. Her 18 minutes of playing time compounded the issue, leaving her with insufficient volume to overcome the shooting collapse.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 19.5 PTS2 vs 19.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three on 30% usage, combining historically poor efficiency with limited volume to fall far short of the 19.5-point line. Her 18 minutes of action and lopsided +/- (-27) suggest Iowa was blown out early, limiting scoring opportunities.
LVA @ PHO1–1−0.32u
  • Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung grabbed 7 rebounds despite a brutal 2-8 shooting night, as the Las Vegas offense stalled (15% usage) and forced her into extended floor time (34 min) where she accumulated boards on high volume attempts. The under missed because rebounding opportunity, not scoring efficiency, was the key variable—she was on the glass hunting for her own misses and her teammates' bricks.
CHI @ WAS2–0+1.41u
09/2311–761%+1.40u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-23 →

ATL @ NYL8–7−0.54u
  • Angel Reese Over 10.5 REB6 vs 10.5no clean explanationReese was limited to just 17 minutes—5-7 below her season average—which capped her rebounding opportunities at 6, well short of the 10.5 line. The limited run was the decisive factor, as her rebounding rate would have easily cleared the over with standard playing time.
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS6 vs 14.5no clean explanationReese was held to just 6 points on 2-7 shooting (29% FG) in only 17 minutes, well short of the 14.5-point line. Limited offensive opportunity and poor efficiency combined to make the over a non-factor.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 16 minutes, collecting just 2 boards on a night when low usage (12%) and a scoreless performance (0-1 FG) limited her opportunities to crash the glass.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 15.5 PTS8 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot just 4-of-12 (33% FG) and 0-of-5 from three despite playing 34 minutes, unable to generate scoring efficiency even with the volume to hit over 15.5 points.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich was a non-factor in 16 minutes with just 2 rebounds and 3 turnovers, recording zero assists despite 12% usage; she failed to generate any playmaking opportunities in a limited role.
  • Angel Reese Over 15.5 PTS6 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese's scoring collapsed due to severe shooting inefficiency (2-7 FG, 28.6% from the field) and limited opportunities, finishing with just 17 minutes and 21% usage—well below the workload needed to reach 15.5 points.
DAL @ SEA3–0+1.95u
09/229–1243%−4.59u5 games

permalink to 2026-09-22 →

LAS @ LVA0–4−4.00u
  • Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberBurrell's playmaking disappeared despite 29 minutes and solid usage; she recorded zero assists while turning the ball over four times, suggesting poor decision-making and an inability to create for teammates in a low-efficiency outing (41% TS).
  • Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's heavy 34-minute workload and 27% usage rate—playing nearly the full game as the primary ball-handler—gave her enough opportunities to grab 5 boards despite shooting just 6-16 from the field, pushing past the 4.5 rebound line.
  • Rae Burrell Over 15.5 PTS11 vs 15.5paid over the fair numberBurrell's inefficient 4-12 shooting (33% FG) and 0-2 from three combined with modest free-throw volume (3 attempts) left her 4.5 points shy despite 29 minutes of play. Her 29% usage rate proved insufficient to generate the scoring volume needed to clear the 15.5-point threshold.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberGray torched the under on an efficient 7-12 shooting night (58% FG) with extended 33-minute run, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line at 17 points. Her 68% true shooting and zero fouls allowed her to stay on court and capitalize on a high-volume opportunity despite modest 21% usage.
GSV @ POR1–4−3.24u
  • Kayla Thornton Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5paid over the fair numberThornton nearly doubled the over/under by grabbing 7 boards in 26 minutes, benefiting from elevated opportunity on a night when her team needed rebounding help and she drew only 2 fouls despite heavy box-out work.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 62% true shooting on 20% usage was enough to clear the 9.5-point line, converting 4-of-8 from the field and both her three-point attempts in 26 minutes despite modest volume.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS11 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton exceeded the under despite modest volume, converting 4-of-8 from the field (50%) and 2-of-4 from three (50%) on 26 minutes to reach 11 points, as efficient shooting made up for her low usage rate of just 20%.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed 7 rebounds in 26 minutes, exceeding the 4.5 line by collecting 3 extra boards despite modest usage (20%) and shooting efficiency (62% TS%), likely benefiting from active interior presence and limited competition for available rebounds.
CON @ WAS1–2−1.25u
  • Kiki Iriafen Over 9.5 REB5 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIriafen fell well short with just 5 rebounds due to a combination of limited minutes (18) and early foul trouble (5 PF), which restricted her ability to crash the glass and accumulate the volume needed to clear 9.5.
  • Sonia Citron Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron fell just short at 3 assists despite playing 30 minutes; she operated with only 19% usage and didn't generate enough offensive opportunities to reach 5 dimes, relying heavily on her scoring (6-6 FT) rather than playmaking.
TOR @ CHI1–0+0.92u
MIN @ IND6–2+2.99u
  • Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTS6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, combining for only 6 points well short of the 11.5 target; limited run and inefficient scoring made the over impossible to hit.
  • Natasha Howard Over 10.5 PTS6 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, limiting her to 6 points well short of the 10.5 line; the minimal playing time and modest usage rate (27%) prevented her from accumulating scoring opportunities.
09/217–1139%−5.86u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-21 →

ATL @ NYL5–11−7.39u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB14 vs 9.5no clean explanation
  • Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB14 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 14 rebounds on 37 minutes and 31% usage, nearly doubling the 8.5 line as the team's primary frontcourt presence in a low-scoring affair where boards were heavily contested.
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich played 32 minutes but finished with just 2 rebounds, one short of the line, due to minimal offensive involvement (5% usage, 0-3 from the field) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass in a game where she was ineffective on the perimeter.
  • Pauline Astier Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAstier exceeded the 3.5 assist line by hitting exactly 4 dimes in 30 minutes of play, benefiting from efficient offensive execution (76% TS%) that likely created more ball-movement opportunities despite her modest 15% usage rate.
  • Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones exceeded the assist line by distributing the ball from the post in 35 minutes of heavy usage (22%), recording 4 dimes while dominating the glass with 12 rebounds. Her elevated role as a facilitator—typical for a big handling the ball in the mid-post—pushed her playmaking volume just beyond the low 2.5 threshold.
  • Allisha Gray Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's usage rate sat at just 16%, well below what's needed to generate assist opportunities, and she recorded only 1 dime despite playing 32 minutes—a clear indicator the offense ran through other creators rather than her facilitating. She compensated with efficient scoring (5-8 FG), but low volume and assist distribution prevented her from reaching the 2.5 assists threshold.
DAL @ PHO2–0+1.53u
09/2016–964%+3.49u5 games

permalink to 2026-09-20 →

POR @ LAS0–2−2.00u
  • Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell fell one assist short despite an efficient 25 minutes and elite scoring (20 pts on 84% TS), as her shot-heavy usage (25%) left little margin for playmaking duties. With only 2 turnovers and minimal ball-handling responsibilities in the flow of the offense, she simply didn't generate enough assist opportunities to clear the 2.5 line.
  • Ariel Atkins Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins was remarkably efficient, converting 5 of 7 from the field (71%) with perfect 3-for-3 free-throw shooting to nearly double the betting line despite playing just 20 minutes. Her elite 84% true shooting and hot hand from the floor—particularly from inside the arc—overcame the limited minutes that would typically support an under bet.
WAS @ IND5–4−0.26u
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTS22 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell fell just short despite heavy minutes (35) and usage (29%), hampered by poor shooting efficiency—she connected on just 8-of-20 FG (40%) and 3-of-10 from three, leaving her three points shy of the line.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 REB0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberMitchell played 35 minutes and took 20 shots but failed to grab a single rebound despite 29% usage, unable to convert her offensive opportunities into board work. Her scoring volume masked a complete absence of rebounding activity—a rare outcome for a guard in heavy rotation that left the over vulnerable.
  • Shakira Austin Under 9.5 REB10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin grabbed one board over the line, finishing with 10 rebounds on 26 minutes of play while drawing only 3 fouls—enough activity to stay on the court and collect boards at a modest rate that pushed her just past the 9.5 threshold.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS22 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell fell two points short despite playing 35 minutes, hampered by inefficient shooting (8-20 FG, 3-10 3PT) that yielded just 52% true shooting—well below her typical efficiency needed to clear 24.5 points.
MIN @ CON3–1+1.65u
  • Saniya Rivers Over 7.5 PTS0 vs 7.5game script — blowout or foul troubleRivers saw just 5 minutes of action with zero shot attempts, indicating she was a healthy scratch or buried on the bench, making any scoring prop untenable. With no field goal opportunities in limited minutes, the over 7.5 was never in play.
NYL @ TOR4–1+1.93u
  • Marine Johannes Under 6.5 PTS9 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes exceeded the line by shooting 3-for-8 from three, converting at 37.5% from deep to reach 9 points in 18 minutes—enough volume in limited time to clear the 6.5-point threshold despite modest overall efficiency.
SEA @ LVA4–1+2.17u
  • Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson grabbed two more rebounds than the line anticipated, finishing with 6 boards on 32 minutes of heavy usage (33%) in a game where she was heavily involved on both ends of the floor.
09/198–947%−2.42u3 games

permalink to 2026-09-19 →

CHI @ ATL3–5−2.55u
  • Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 19 minutes, hampered by dismal 0-5 shooting that likely limited her interior activity and offensive rebounding opportunities. Her 13% usage rate suggests limited involvement in the offense, reducing the number of possessions and second-chance situations that typically generate rebound volume.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon shot 0-for-5 from the field and generated only 13% usage in 19 minutes, leaving her entirely dependent on free throws for scoring and unable to reach 8 points. Her 17% true shooting percentage reflects a near-complete offensive drought that rendered the over unplayable.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberHoward fell just short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 18% usage) because her 24 minutes and modest volume—only 9 FG attempts—capped her scoring at 14 points, two shy of the line.
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso's efficient 5-7 shooting (71%) wasn't enough to clear 12.5 points due to limited minutes (19) and usage (24%), holding her to 11 points despite a strong True Shooting percentage.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS14 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot efficiently (71% TS) but saw limited volume with just 18% usage and 24 minutes, falling 3.5 points short of the over despite solid shooting splits (5-9 FG, 3-6 3PT).
SEA @ GSV2–2−0.33u
  • Natisha Hiedeman Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman fell just short despite playing 30 minutes, finishing with only 3 assists due to low offensive involvement—her 11% usage rate and 2-5 shooting kept her off the ball and limited playmaking opportunities.
  • Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationJohnson grabbed one more board than the line despite inefficient shooting (6-18 FG), staying on the court for 34 minutes and maintaining high usage (34%) to accumulate volume opportunities on the glass.
PHO @ DAL3–2+0.46u
  • Awak Kuier Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upKuier's perfect 4-for-4 shooting from the field (including 1-for-1 from three) on limited 27 minutes was the outlier—she converted at 100% TS despite her low 9% usage rate, pushing her just over the 9.5 line despite minimal offensive involvement.
  • Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with an efficient 8-11 shooting night (72.7% FG), converting nearly three-quarters of her attempts from the field to reach 19 points despite modest usage at 22%. Her elite scoring efficiency—well above her season baseline—was the difference maker in pushing past the 15.5-point threshold.
09/188–657%−0.13u3 games

permalink to 2026-09-18 →

POR @ GSV1–2−1.21u
  • Kayla Thornton Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5paid over the fair numberThornton exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (4-10 FG), hitting 3-of-8 from three to reach 13 points in 25 minutes with elevated usage at 23%, relying on volume rather than shooting accuracy to push past the 10.5 line.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS13 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberThornton exceeded the under on efficient scoring, going 4-10 from the field with a 3-8 clip from three to reach 13 points in 25 minutes of solid role-player production. Her 57% true shooting and 23% usage rate kept her on pace to clear 9.5 despite modest volume.
NYL @ MIN3–2+0.15u
  • Courtney Williams Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams played 29 minutes with low usage (19%) in a blowout loss, recording only 2 assists despite 5 rebounds, suggesting limited offensive flow and playmaking opportunities in a game that didn't require sustained ball movement. Five fouls also may have constrained her aggression late, limiting her ability to generate additional assists.
  • Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB10 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart grabbed two boards beyond the line in 38 full minutes of action, capitalizing on her team's offensive rebounding opportunities in a blowout win (+13). Her elite efficiency (58% TS) and high usage kept her on the floor throughout, providing extra chances to clean the glass.
IND @ TOR4–2+0.93u
  • Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark grabbed one more rebound than the line anticipated, finishing with 6 boards across 34 minutes of heavy usage (39%) in a game Indiana won by 10, staying active on the glass despite her primary role as a scorer and facilitator.
  • Kiki Rice Under 3.5 REB6 vs 3.5no clean explanationRice doubled her rebounding projection with 6 boards in 29 minutes, benefiting from elevated usage (34%) and activity that extended beyond her typical scoring role in a competitive game.
09/1720–1754%−2.66u5 games

permalink to 2026-09-17 →

CON @ ATL6–8−2.70u
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner's minutes (11) and usage rate (12%) were well below her typical load, limiting her scoring opportunities to just three field-goal attempts, of which she made only one.
  • Aaliyah Edwards Over 12.5 PTS7 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberEdwards shot just 3-8 from the field (37.5%) with only 16 minutes of action, limiting her scoring well short of the 12.5-point line. Four fouls in a blowout loss (-27) further restricted her opportunity to get back on track.
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 6.5 PTS2 vs 6.5paid over the fair numberBonner was held to just 2 points on 1-3 shooting in limited 11-minute action, managing only 12% usage despite a positive +14 rating. The minimal volume and inefficient 33% true shooting were the clear culprits in missing the over by a wide margin.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 PTS10 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberHoward's inefficiency at the rim doomed the over: she shot just 3-14 from the field (21%) and 1-9 from three (11%), combining for a dismal 32% TS despite adequate playing time and usage at 28 minutes and 27% usage rate.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS10 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's shot selection and efficiency collapsed: she went 3-14 from the field (21% FG) and 1-9 from three despite playing 28 minutes, leaving her 8.5 points shy of the over despite solid playmaking (8 ast, 4 stl).
  • Jordin Canada Over 10.5 PTS5 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada shot just 2-for-5 from the field despite 21 minutes of run, combining for only 5 points on poor 40% FG and 0-for-3 from three; her 13% usage rate and inability to convert scoring chances were the primary culprits in missing the over by nearly half.
LVA @ SEA2–2−0.64u
  • A'ja Wilson Under 26.5 PTS29 vs 26.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberWilson's perfect 10-10 free-throw shooting and elite 69% two-point conversion (8-of-11) powered her to 29 points despite modest usage, as her 83% true shooting easily cleared the 26.5 line. She stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF in 29 minutes, allowing her to maintain high-efficiency offense throughout the game.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 3.5 REB9 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray crashed the glass hard despite minimal offensive involvement, pulling down 9 rebounds in 26 minutes—more than double the projected total—as a primary rebounder in a game where Las Vegas controlled pace and rebounding opportunities.
LAS @ DAL5–4−0.58u
  • Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REB11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationShepard grabbed 11 boards in 28 minutes, just clearing the number despite modest 22% usage, as her team's +18 margin and defensive rebounding opportunities kept her in high-volume rebound situations.
  • Rae Burrell Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5no clean explanationBurrell shot just 5-14 from the field (36%) and 1-4 from three despite 24 minutes and 27% usage, falling two points short of the 14.5 line. Her inefficient shooting night, combined with limited free-throw attempts (1-1), prevented her from reaching the scoring threshold.
  • Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 AST12 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard's playmaking was the engine of her impact despite modest scoring, dishing 12 assists on 28 minutes of floor time while maintaining efficiency (55% TS%) and recording a team-leading +18, nearly doubling the 5.5 assist line. Her ball movement and high-volume involvement in the offense—facilitated by low foul trouble (2 PF)—drove her well above the projection.
  • Maddy Siegrist Under 8.5 PTS12 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberSiegrist converted 5 of 10 from the field (50% FG) and 2 of 5 from three for 12 points in 23 minutes, exceeding the 8.5-point line through efficient shooting rather than elevated usage (17%). She stayed out of foul trouble with only 3 personal fouls, allowing her to play her typical role without restriction.
PHO @ POR2–1+0.47u
  • Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS18 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with efficient inside scoring, converting 6 of 8 from the field (75%) while getting to the free-throw line 10 times in 31 minutes, offsetting her zero three-pointers with dominant paint production.
WAS @ CHI5–2+0.78u
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5paid over the fair numberCardoso's 10 points fell short of 13.5 despite solid volume (11 FG attempts), as she converted just 5 shots (45% FG) and took zero free throws in 23 minutes—a below-average efficiency night that couldn't overcome her limited offensive output. Four fouls in limited minutes also likely restricted her aggressive play late in the game.
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS10 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberCardoso fell short of 12.5 despite solid volume (11 FG attempts), hampered by poor efficiency at 45.5% TS and zero free-throw attempts that limited her scoring upside. Foul trouble (6 PF in 23 minutes) likely curtailed her aggression and playing time in a blowout loss.
08/3023–1561%+3.83u4 games

permalink to 2026-08-30 →

MIN @ ATL4–9−6.27u
  • Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell one assist short despite 33 minutes and heavy involvement (22% usage, 11 rebounds), as her ball-handling struggles—5 turnovers in limited playmaking opportunities—kept her from the 3+ assists threshold.
  • Natasha Howard Over 10.5 PTS9 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Naz Hillmon Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played a full 30 minutes but couldn't secure boards despite adequate opportunity, finishing with just 3 rebounds on 18% usage and a poor 3-9 shooting line that likely limited her presence around the rim.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS16 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward fell one point short despite heavy playing time (35 min), held back by inefficient shooting (6-16 FG, 2-9 3PT) that kept her TS% at 47%—well below her season average and insufficient to push her over 16.5.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward's inefficient 6-16 shooting night (37.5% FG, 22% from three) left her two points shy despite logging heavy minutes, as poor shot selection and limited free-throw opportunities (2-2 on just 2 attempts) prevented her from reaching the 18.5 threshold.
  • Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over by a single assist despite modest usage (20%), benefiting from extended floor time (37 minutes) that created enough playmaking opportunities to reach 3 dimes.
GSV @ POR6–5+0.16u
  • Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS17 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 5-8 from the field and 3-5 from three while posting a 87% true shooting percentage in 25 minutes—nearly double the scoring needed to clear 7.5 points on just 19% usage.
  • Megan DiLeo Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDiLeo fell just short despite efficient shooting (60% FG), limited by 24 minutes of run and a 23% usage rate in a game where the team's offensive load was distributed elsewhere. One made three-pointer instead of going 0-for-3 from deep would have cleared the line.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS17 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) easily doubled the expected output, and her 25 minutes of run time at 19% usage provided the volume to cash in on her hot shooting from the field and foul line (4-4 FT).
  • Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStokes was limited to just 12 minutes and recorded only 1 rebound, as her minimal playing time and 0% usage rate prevented her from approaching the 5.5 rebound threshold.
  • Kaitlyn Chen Under 9.5 PTS15 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upChen torched the under with an efficient 5-8 shooting night (62.5% FG, 60% from three) while playing a full 27 minutes, combining volume and accuracy to nearly double the 9.5-point projection.
CON @ DAL4–1+2.14u
  • Awak Kuier Over 8.5 PTS4 vs 8.5no clean explanationKuier's 4 points fell well short of the 8.5-point line due to minimal offensive involvement—she posted just 7% usage and took only 2 field-goal attempts despite playing 20 minutes. Though she was efficient when she did shoot (50% FG, 100% FT), the volume simply wasn't there to reach the over.
LAS @ SEA9–0+7.81u
08/298–373%+2.73u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-29 →

CHI @ NYL2–2−0.79u
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5paid over the fair number
  • Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 REB9 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationStewart grabbed one extra rebound to push past the line, fueled by 26 minutes of floor time and active interior presence with 2 blocks that kept her in rebounding position despite modest 4-11 shooting.
TOR @ PHO6–1+3.52u
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one rebound short despite solid floor time (22 min), held back by low volume—her 14% usage and pass-first role (12 assists) limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).
08/2814–574%+6.74u4 games

permalink to 2026-08-28 →

WAS @ LAS3–1+1.12u
  • Sonia Citron Under 17.5 PTS22 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron exceeded the under by hitting 50% from three (4-7) and shot efficiently overall at 60% TS despite modest volume, posting 22 points in 32 minutes to easily clear 17.5.
CON @ IND3–1+1.50u
  • Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationClark grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, finishing with 5 boards in 34 minutes of heavy usage (34%) while playing efficiently and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF), which kept her on the floor and in position to crash the glass.
POR @ ATL4–2+1.80u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 1-6 (17%) with 0-3 from three despite playing 33 minutes, and her 10% usage rate left her with minimal scoring opportunities in the game. Even with free throws, she could only muster 4 points—well short of 14.5—on a historically poor 29% true shooting night.
  • Carla Leite Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite grabbed 3 rebounds in 29 minutes, just one more than the under's threshold, as her elite scoring efficiency (9-13 FG, 88% TS) kept her heavily involved on offense rather than crashing the glass.
TOR @ LVA4–1+2.31u
  • Isabelle Harrison Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarrison came up one rebound short despite solid 24 minutes and high usage (36%), held back by limited opportunities on the glass—she grabbed only 7 boards while shooting just 5-for-14 from the field in a game where her team was outrebounded.
08/273–443%−2.04u1 game

permalink to 2026-08-27 →

WAS @ PHO3–4−2.04u
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5no clean explanationThomas was held to just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) despite playing 32 minutes, rendering her 11% usage rate irrelevant; the offensive inefficiency—compounded by zero 3-pointers—left her stranded well short of 13.5 points.
  • Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Under 5.5 PTS6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS11 vs 17.5no clean explanationAustin shot just 3-9 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 17% usage rate—well below her season average—limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she didn't get enough offensive touches to reach 18+.
  • Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS11 vs 16.5no clean explanationAustin's 11 points fell short of 16.5 despite playing 30 minutes due to inefficient shooting (3-9 FG, 33%), as she relied heavily on free throws (5-5) to generate scoring rather than consistent field-goal production.

Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.