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system_lineedges
322–208 over 530 priced bets · +38.8u · ROI +7.3% -0.1% to +14.8% · CLV +1.05¢ +0.9% to +1.2%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
these are the system_lineedges picks — the same set listed in the sheet below. The record in the header bar is a different formula, so the two totals will not match.
322–208 · 61% · +38.84u across these days · 8 voided, nothing staked
08/069–853%−0.89u3 games
LAS @ MIN4–7−3.90u
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike scored efficiently (16 pts on 62% TS in 30 min) but recorded zero assists despite 27% usage, turning the ball over 5 times and failing to facilitate for teammates. The volume was there but playmaking never materialized, leaving the over well short of the 2.5 threshold.
- Courtney Williams Over 3.5 AST0 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams played 34 minutes but recorded zero assists despite 17% usage, operating primarily as a scorer (12 points on 5-12 shooting) rather than a facilitator in the offense. The complete absence of playmaking opportunities—just one turnover in a game where she touched the ball infrequently—made the over an impossible hit.
- Kayla McBride Over 17.5 PTS15 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride fell just short despite playing 34 minutes, as a poor 5-13 shooting night (38 FG%) limited her to 15 points despite decent volume at 21% usage. The miss came down to inefficiency rather than opportunity—she had the minutes and touches but couldn't convert at her typical rate.
- Napheesa Collier Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberCollier's 30% usage rate and 34 minutes gave her plenty of opportunities to facilitate, and she delivered 6 assists by being the primary ball-handler in Minnesota's offense despite a quiet shooting night (10-20 FG). The under at 2.5 was vulnerable given her playmaking role and heavy minutes in a game where the Lynx needed her involvement beyond scoring.
- Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell's 2 assists fell one short of the over, despite solid scoring (17 pts on 67% TS); her 23% usage rate limited playmaking opportunities and she recorded just 1 turnover, indicating a shoot-first role rather than ball-handling duties.
- Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTS15 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMcBride fell one point short despite 34 minutes and 21% usage, undone by inefficient shooting (5-13 FG, 3-8 3PT) that kept her below the scoring threshold even with steady volume.
TOR @ POR1–0+0.71u
LVA @ IND4–1+2.29u
- Aliyah Boston Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston exceeded the rebounding line by crashing the glass relentlessly in 38 minutes of heavy usage, grabbing 12 boards on strong efficiency (70% TS) to carry the offensive load despite a team-worst -9 +/-. The high volume and floor time proved decisive for the over-9.5 rebound prop.
08/0522–1756%+0.75u4 games
PHO @ ATL7–8−2.22u
- Rhyne Howard Under 16.5 PTS23 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's elite efficiency—74% TS on 22% usage with a 6-13 FG line anchored by 5-9 from three—carried her well past 16.5 despite modest volume, as she made 6 of 6 free throws to reach 23 points in 34 minutes.
- Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTS23 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's elite efficiency—74% true shooting on 22% usage—combined with perfect free-throw shooting (6-6) to push her 5 points over the line despite moderate volume from the field (13 FG attempts).
- Rhyne Howard Under 18.5 PTS23 vs 18.5no clean explanationHoward's elite 74% true shooting—fueled by a 5-for-9 night from three and perfect 6-for-6 free-throw shooting—carried her 4.5 points past the line despite modest 22% usage, as she made the most of her 34 minutes on efficient volume.
- Jordin Canada Over 7.5 AST4 vs 7.5no clean explanationCanada's assist total was dragged down by five turnovers and limited playmaking opportunities despite 30 minutes of work; she recorded only 4 dimes against an opponent that forced her into a shoot-first role (32% usage, 4-13 FG).
- Brionna Jones Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5no clean explanationJones played only 21 minutes and grabbed just 4 rebounds despite efficient shooting, falling one short of the 5.5 line due to limited court time and a lower-than-needed rebound rate in that restricted sample.
- Brionna Jones Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5no clean explanation
SEA @ NYL4–3+0.27u
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 PTS15 vs 18.5no clean explanationIonescu's inefficient 4-14 shooting (28.6% FG) despite 31 minutes of work left her 3.5 points short, as she couldn't compensate for her poor field-goal accuracy with her free-throw prowess (6-6). Her 23% usage rate also indicated the offense didn't lean heavily on her scoring in this matchup.
- Awa Fam Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberFam finished exactly at the line with 5 rebounds in 23 minutes of play, unable to secure the extra board needed to cash the over despite solid shooting efficiency (59% TS). Limited minutes and moderate usage (23%) kept her rebound opportunities constrained.
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5no clean explanationJohnson's 11 points fell short despite 27 minutes of action, as poor shooting efficiency—5-of-12 FG (42%) and just 1-of-3 from three—combined with a low-volume 20% usage rate to keep her well below the 14.5-point threshold.
LAS @ CHI5–3+1.05u
- Erica Wheeler Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler came up one assist short despite efficient scoring (6-9 FG), limited by 24 minutes and modest usage (20%) that restricted her playmaking opportunities.
- Natasha Cloud Under 13.5 PTS15 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCloud shot 60% from the field (6-10) and stayed out of foul trouble with zero personal fouls across 32 minutes, allowing her to maintain high efficiency and push past the 13.5-point line despite modest 17% usage.
- Cameron Brink Under 10.5 PTS11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberBrink's perfect 5-5 free-throw shooting compensated for modest 3-6 field goal efficiency, pushing her to 11 points in just 14 minutes on 34% usage; the under missed by a single point despite below-average shooting because of her elite conversion at the stripe.
DAL @ WAS6–3+1.64u
- Alanna Smith Under 3.5 REB11 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSmith's 11 rebounds—triple the over/under line—came from 32 minutes of heavy usage (32%) and her ability to crash the glass on both ends, collecting boards on 9 made field goals and generating extra possessions despite shooting just 5-for-7 from the free-throw line.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 15.5 PTS15 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale fell one point shy despite solid efficiency (59% TS), as a modest 20% usage rate limited her volume—she needed just one more made field goal to cash the over, but finished 4-10 from the floor in 33 minutes.
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationOnyenwere logged only 19 minutes and recorded just 1 assist despite solid efficiency (62% TS), unable to generate enough ball movement in limited run to clear the 1.5 threshold.
08/043–350%−0.97u1 game
TOR @ GSV3–3−0.97u
- Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 PTS7 vs 5.5no clean explanation
- Julie Allemand Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand played 30 minutes but grabbed only 1 rebound despite solid offensive efficiency (70% TS), suggesting limited box-out opportunities or a mismatch in positioning against the opponent's frontcourt. Her assist-heavy role (8 ast) and 8% usage rate indicate she operated primarily as a facilitator rather than a rebounder, making the over 2.5 threshold difficult to hit.
- Kiki Rice Over 9.5 PTS2 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberRice shot 0-for-3 from the field and made only her free throws, finishing 2-for-6 overall (33% FG) despite playing 23 minutes—a brutal efficiency collapse that left her 7.5 points short of the over. Five personal fouls also limited her aggressiveness and touched the floor time's value.
08/0313–959%+0.41u3 games
LVA @ ATL2–4−2.71u
- Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTS19 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHoward exceeded the under by hitting 7-of-13 from the field (54%) and 3-of-7 from three (43%) while playing a season-high 33 minutes, capitalizing on efficient shooting to reach 19 points despite a modest 18% usage rate.
- Allisha Gray Over 18.5 PTS7 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's shot never fell, connecting on just 2-of-10 from the field (20%) and 0-of-6 from three despite playing 30 minutes, unable to generate the scoring volume needed to clear 18.5 points.
- Rhyne Howard Under 16.5 PTS19 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward shot an efficient 7-13 (54%) from the field with a 68% true shooting percentage, exceeding her season averages to finish 3 points above the 16.5 line despite modest 18% usage.
- Jordin Canada Over 7.5 AST7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCanada fell one assist short despite playing 31 minutes, hampered by a 17% usage rate and 4 turnovers that limited her playmaking opportunities in the offense.
SEA @ NYL4–5−2.05u
- Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMalonga fell two boards short despite solid scoring efficiency (6-11 FG, 67% TS), hampered by limited opportunities in 28 minutes and early foul trouble (4 PF) that likely reduced her time on the glass.
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHiedeman was a facilitator tonight (7 assists), but grabbed just 1 rebound across 33 minutes despite high volume on offense, failing to crash the glass even as a primary ball-handler; her guard role and lack of offensive rebounding opportunities led to a significant shortfall on the boards.
- Rebecca Allen Under 2.5 REB5 vs 2.5no clean explanationAllen's rebounding activity far exceeded expectations despite shooting 0-for-7, as she corralled 5 boards in 26 minutes—double the under line—by staying active on the glass even when her offensive game disappeared. Her elite shot-blocking (2 blocks) and defense (+10 rating) kept her on the floor and positioned her for rebound opportunities despite negligible offensive usage.
- Dominique Malonga Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberMalonga fell one board short despite efficient scoring (6-11 FG) because she logged only 28 minutes and picked up 4 fouls, limiting her time on the glass and availability for the final stretch.
- Rebecca Allen Under 3.5 REB5 vs 3.5no clean explanation
PHO @ CHI7–0+5.17u
08/0216–15 ·3 void52%−1.44u4 games
TOR @ GSV1–3−2.08u
- Janelle Salaun Under 1.5 AST2 vs 1.5no clean explanationSalaun's elevated 30-minute role and 28% usage rate gave her multiple opportunities to contribute on assists, and she delivered exactly 2—just enough to clear the 1.5 line despite a shoot-first performance (9-15 FG) that could have limited playmaking chances.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REB2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison was held to just 2 rebounds in 17 minutes despite 27% usage, falling well short of the 5.5 line; her poor offensive efficiency (2-9 FG, 22% TS) likely limited second-chance opportunities and kept her off the glass.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 11.5 PTS4 vs 11.5no clean explanationHarrison's ice-cold 2-9 shooting (22% TS) left her far short at just 4 points, compounded by a blowout loss that limited her to 17 minutes and 27% usage. A combination of poor efficiency and reduced playing time in a lopsided game made the over an easy miss.
CON @ DAL0–1−1.00u
- Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers fell one rebound short despite playing 25 minutes, finishing with 3 boards as her offensive struggles (3-9 FG, 18% usage) limited her ability to generate extra possessions and offensive rebounding opportunities.
IND @ MIN8–7−0.24u
- Natasha Howard Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (6-9 FG), limited by 23 minutes of playing time and picking up 4 fouls that likely restricted her availability on the glass in the final quarter.
- Napheesa Collier Under 7.5 REB8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCollier cleared the under by one rebound despite modest usage (21%), grabbing 8 boards in 32 minutes as Minnesota's primary floor-spacer and secondary playmaker; the extra rebound came via heavy involvement in transition and offensive glass work that wasn't fully priced into the 7.5 line.
- Caitlin Clark Under 8.5 AST10 vs 8.5no clean explanationClark exceeded the assist line by distributing the ball at a high rate despite modest scoring efficiency (8-18 FG); her 30% usage and full 34 minutes gave her sufficient opportunities to reach double-digit dimes even in a low-efficiency shooting night.
- Kayla McBride Over 17.5 PTS10 vs 17.5no clean explanationMcBride's 40% shooting night (4-10 FG) fell well short of her scoring pace, and despite playing 29 minutes, her 17% usage rate—indicating limited offensive touches—capped her at just 10 points, 7.5 short of the over.
- Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTS10 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's 40% field-goal percentage (4-10) and limited offensive opportunities at 17% usage rate kept her well short of the 16.5-point threshold despite playing 29 minutes.
- Kayla McBride Over 15.5 PTS10 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's 40% shooting night (4-10 FG) fell well short of her scoring line despite getting 29 minutes of run, as inefficient shooting and low free-throw activity (0 attempts) left her 5.5 points short of the over.
LAS @ POR7–4 ·3 void+1.89u
- Dearica Hamby Under 7.5 REB10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby exceeded the 7.5 rebound line with 10 boards despite playing only 29 minutes, capitalizing on elite 73% true shooting and high volume touches (26% usage) that kept her heavily involved in the offensive glass. The under missed because she secured 0.34 rebounds per minute—well above her typical rate—in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 4 fouls.
- Dearica Hamby Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHamby's high usage rate (26%) and extended minutes (29) in a game where she was efficient (11-15 FG) created enough ball-handling opportunities to push her to exactly 4 assists, just one over the line. She stayed out of foul trouble (4 PF) and maintained possession, allowing her to facilitate slightly more than the under projection despite playing within her typical role.
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike's ball-handling was minimal despite 30 minutes and high usage (31%), as she recorded just 2 assists while turning it over twice, suggesting the offense ran through her scoring rather than playmaking in this game.
- Emily Engstler Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5no clean explanationEngstler managed only 3 rebounds in 22 minutes of play, falling one board short of the 4.5 target; her limited floor time and 4 fouls (one shy of fouling out) restricted her rebounding opportunities despite a team that may have needed boards.
08/0110–283%+6.32u2 games
LVA @ CHI5–2+1.88u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 13.5 PTS8 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso's 36% FG mark and 0-for-1 from three combined with limited free-throw volume (0-1) to leave her well short despite 26 minutes of work. Poor shooting efficiency—not a lack of opportunity—sank the over, as her 22% usage rate showed she remained involved in the offense.
- Natasha Cloud Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud fell one assist short despite solid efficiency and 30 minutes of run, held back by low usage (13%) that limited her playmaking opportunities. She committed 5 fouls, which may have affected her aggression on offense.
NYL @ PHO5–0+4.44u
07/3112–1250%−1.31u3 games
IND @ POR3–7−4.14u
- Emily Engstler Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upEngstler's rebounding dried up despite 28 minutes played, grabbing only 2 boards—well short of the 4.5 line—as her offensive usage (14%) kept her in a playmaking role rather than crashing the glass. A minus-15 rating suggests the team was outmatched in rebounding margin, limiting her opportunities on the glass.
- Bridget Carleton Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton came one rebound short despite playing 34 minutes and shooting efficiently (9-14 FG), as the game's pace and her 20% usage rate limited her opportunities on the glass in a low-possession contest. She picked up 3 fouls without fouling out, which may have caused her to play more cautiously defensively in the second half.
- Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB10 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's aggressive offensive approach—26 points on 79% TS and 34 minutes—naturally created more rebounding opportunities, and she crashed the glass hard enough to pull down 10 boards, more than double the under threshold. Her elite efficiency and high volume usage meant she stayed on the floor and in the action for extended stretches, driving the rebounding output well past expectations.
- Caitlin Clark Under 8.5 AST10 vs 8.5no clean explanationClark's elite efficiency (79% TS, 14-17 FT) and high volume (34 min, 25% usage) created numerous scoring opportunities that also opened passing lanes, allowing her to reach double-digit assists despite moderate turnover rate (4 TO). The +23 rating reflected her dominance in a blowout, where she had more freedom to distribute without defensive pressure.
- Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 REB9 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberBoston grabbed one more board than the line anticipated, finishing with 9 rebounds across 30 minutes of play—her consistent interior presence and 6 assists suggesting strong overall involvement despite modest 20% usage.
- Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 AST6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston nearly doubled the assist line, recording 6 dimes while playing heavy minutes (30) in a game that likely featured elevated ball movement and pace; her 20% usage rate and 5-rebound night suggest she operated more as a facilitator than a high-volume scorer.
DAL @ WAS0–3−3.00u
- Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberFudd recorded zero assists despite 33 minutes and 18% usage, as she was largely a scorer-only on a poor shooting night (3-11 FG, 36% TS) with no secondary playmaking involvement. The combination of inefficient shot-taking and minimal ball movement—just one turnover in 33 minutes—left her with no dimes in a blowout loss.
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (20 pts on 68% TS%), as her 30 minutes and high usage were concentrated on perimeter scoring rather than offensive glass work in a game that didn't create additional rebounding opportunities for her.
- Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers played 34 minutes with 28% usage but recorded just 2 assists despite scoring 23 points, suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. The lack of ball movement and playmaking opportunities—evidenced by zero turnovers across high volume—fell well short of the 5.5 assist threshold.
SEA @ ATL9–2+5.83u
- Allisha Gray Over 18.5 PTS16 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray fell just short despite heavy minutes (31) and solid volume (13 FG attempts), as poor overall efficiency—5-13 FG and 1-4 from three—left her two points shy of the line. Her 51% true shooting was below her usual standard and made up the difference on a night she couldn't generate enough makes to reach 18.5.
- Angel Reese Under 12.5 REB13 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberReese snagged 13 rebounds in a 38-minute, high-volume effort (22% usage), capitalizing on strong free-throw shooting (9-12) and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF) to exceed the 12.5 line by one board.
07/309–950%−2.46u3 games
MIN @ TOR2–4−2.77u
- Julie Allemand Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAllemand fell one rebound short despite playing 22 minutes, finishing with just 2 boards in a low-usage role (8%) where she contributed primarily through playmaking (6 assists) rather than rebounding activity.
- Kayla McBride Over 17.5 PTS13 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride fell short despite efficient shooting (59% TS) because 24 minutes of playing time and a 18% usage rate limited her scoring volume—she needed nearly 18 points per 36 minutes to hit the over, and her modest role didn't provide enough shot opportunities.
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over with exactly 3 assists in 24 minutes of solid efficiency (59% TS), as her playmaking kept pace with her scoring load despite modest usage at 18%.
- Kayla McBride Over 18.5 PTS13 vs 18.5paid over the fair numberMcBride's 13 points fell short despite solid efficiency (59% TS), as her 18% usage rate—her lowest touch share of the season—and limited 24 minutes kept her well below the 18.5 projection. The Las Vegas blowout win reduced her scoring opportunities in a game that never required her usual offensive load.
CON @ CHI4–4−0.90u
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker played 30 minutes but pulled down just 1 rebound despite a 19% usage rate, failing to establish herself on the glass where the over required her to average 3+ boards per game. Her teammates dominated the rebounding battle, limiting opportunities for her to contribute on the boards despite sufficient court time.
- Courtney Vandersloot Over 7.5 PTS6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upVandersloot's shooting touch abandoned her early and often, connecting on just 2-of-7 from the field (28.6%) despite 23 minutes of action; the low-volume shooting night combined with modest free-throw attempts (2-2) left her 1.5 points short of the over.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 13.5 PTS16 vs 13.5no clean explanationNelson-Ododa exceeded the under by converting 6 of 6 free throws and posting a 59% true shooting percentage despite modest field-goal volume, combining efficient scoring from the line with elevated 33% usage to reach 16 points in 25 minutes.
- Sydney Taylor Under 2.5 AST6 vs 2.5no clean explanation
NYL @ LVA3–1+1.21u
- Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones fell one rebound short despite 28 minutes of action, hampered by a poor 2-11 shooting night that limited her offensive opportunities and kept her out of rhythm on the glass. Five personal fouls also likely forced her into a more cautious defensive posture down the stretch.
07/295–271%+2.48u2 games
GSV @ PHO2–1+1.10u
- Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanationCopper's 4 assists exceeded the 2.5 line as she operated as a secondary playmaker alongside elevated offensive usage (28%), facilitating drive-and-kick opportunities in a game where she logged heavy minutes (34) and dominated scoring (27 pts on elite 75% TS).
ATL @ DAL3–1+1.38u
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 PTS16 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers fell 3.5 points short despite solid efficiency (61% TS) and heavy minutes (37), hampered by her lowest usage rate of the season at 22% and a quiet 1-5 three-point night that limited her scoring upside. The combination of reduced offensive touches and off-target shooting from deep—where she typically generates volume—kept her in the mid-teens rather than the low 20s the over required.
07/2814–961%+1.38u5 games
NYL @ LAS2–4−2.76u
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 REB4 vs 8.5paid over the fair numberOgwumike's offensive efficiency (88% TS on 20% usage) kept her in a rhythm as a facilitator rather than rebounder, and she fouled out with 5 fouls in 28 minutes, limiting her ability to crash the glass aggressively.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu eclipsed the 5.5 assist line with a game-high 6 dimes while playing all 36 minutes and maintaining elite efficiency (76% TS%), staying healthy enough to run the offense without foul trouble (1 PF) and generate ball movement throughout the contest.
- Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones fell well short of the rebound line despite solid efficiency, limited to just 5 boards in 24 minutes while picking up 3 fouls that restricted her floor time and opportunities on the glass. Her 18% usage rate and minus-23 rating indicate she was a healthy scratch in a lopsided game where Boston likely controlled the boards without needing her volume.
- Dearica Hamby Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby shot just 5-11 from the field despite 33 minutes of run, falling two points short of the 14.5 line; her 18% usage rate limited volume even as she stayed out of foul trouble.
TOR @ MIN2–2−0.43u
- Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's 4 assists exceeded the 2.5 line despite modest 14% usage, driven by efficient ball movement in a game where she played all 35 available minutes without foul trouble. Her zero turnovers and high-volume shooting role (10 FG attempts) left room for playmaking opportunities that pushed her just over the threshold.
- Kayla McBride Over 18.5 PTS18 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMcBride fell one point short despite efficient shooting (6-10 FG, 4-7 3PT) because her 14% usage rate limited her volume—she needed more shot attempts or free-throw attempts to clear 18.5 in a game where she played 35 minutes without getting to the line.
CON @ WAS1–0+0.59u
POR @ LVA3–1+1.45u
- Carla Leite Over 5.5 AST3 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite fell short of the assist line despite decent scoring output, hampered by just 22 minutes of playing time and 6 fouls that limited her floor presence and ball-handling opportunities.
IND @ SEA6–2+2.53u
- Sophie Cunningham Under 2.5 REB5 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCunningham doubled her under projection with 5 rebounds in 24 minutes, benefiting from extended playing time and active offensive rebounding in a blowout win (+15 +/-) where she saw increased opportunities on the glass.
- Flau'jae Johnson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanationJohnson fell one assist short despite 33% usage, hampered by poor shot selection (0-6 from three) that limited her ability to generate offense and create for teammates in 24 minutes. Six personal fouls also likely restricted her playmaking aggression late in the game.
07/2230–2258%+1.89u6 games
PHO @ LAS3–8−5.34u
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 PTS13 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike's 4-10 FG efficiency (40%) fell short despite 30 minutes and solid free-throw shooting (4-4), as her 21% usage rate limited volume opportunities to reach the 17.5-point threshold.
- Natasha Mack Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5no clean explanationMack fell short of 5.5 rebounds despite efficient scoring (5-8 FG), limited by just 15 minutes of playing time and finishing with only 3 boards—a shortfall driven by her reduced opportunity on the court rather than poor rebounding activity.
- Ariel Atkins Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins grabbed 4 rebounds in 33 minutes of play, just one board above the 3.5 line, as solid efficiency and low foul trouble (1 PF) kept her on the floor and in position to contribute on the glass. The modest usage rate (14%) limited her scoring opportunities but didn't prevent her from reaching the rebound threshold.
- Natasha Mack Over 6.5 REB3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMack grabbed just 3 rebounds in 15 minutes of action, held well below her over line despite efficient scoring (5-8 FG); the limited floor time was the primary culprit in missing the rebound total.
- Dearica Hamby Under 7.5 REB10 vs 7.5no clean explanationHamby secured 10 rebounds in 31 minutes—well above the 7.5 line—by crashing the glass consistently and avoiding foul trouble (just 1 PF), allowing her to stay on the court and accumulate volume. Her 5 assists also signaled elevated overall playmaking engagement that typically correlates with more rebounding opportunities.
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 16.5 PTS13 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgwumike's inefficient 4-10 shooting (40% FG) combined with modest 21% usage limited her to 13 points despite playing 30 minutes. She stayed out of foul trouble (3 PF) and grabbed 13 boards, but simply didn't get enough shot attempts to reach the over.
DAL @ POR2–2−0.22u
- Carla Leite Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeite's efficient 56% TS masked a cold shooting night—she connected on just 3-of-8 from the field (37.5% FG) and couldn't generate enough volume at 21% usage to reach 15 points despite 31 minutes played.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 17.5 PTS24 vs 17.5no clean explanationOgunbowale was ruthless from the floor, shooting 8-12 (67%) with a scorching 82% true shooting rate, and got to the free-throw line five times to comfortably clear 17.5 on just 35 minutes of work.
CHI @ NYL4–2+0.34u
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS10 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso fell short despite getting 25 minutes and a healthy 22% usage rate, hampered by poor efficiency—she shot just 5-for-11 from the field and 0-for-0 from three while posting a 46% TS%, leaving her 2.5 points shy of the over. Five personal fouls also limited her effectiveness and may have caused the Bulls to manage her minutes or aggression down the stretch.
- Azura Stevens Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStevens shot just 2-5 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 13% usage rate—well below her typical offensive load—limited her scoring opportunities even though she stayed efficient at the line (4-4 FT).
LVA @ WAS4–2+0.64u
- Shakira Austin Over 9.5 REB6 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin's efficient 25-point night (10-18 FG) kept her on the floor for 29 minutes, but limited her rebounding opportunities—she grabbed just 6 boards despite a 57% true shooting rate, suggesting the game flow favored her scoring over crashing the glass.
- Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 AST4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's playmaking was bottlenecked by limited offensive touches—she logged just 22% usage despite 37 minutes, finishing with only 4 assists well short of the 6.5 line. The low usage rate, despite efficient scoring (65% TS), left her without enough ball-handling opportunities to generate assists.
CON @ IND6–3+1.67u
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5no clean explanationNelson-Ododa played only 22 minutes and grabbed just 1 rebound despite solid scoring efficiency (5-10 FG), suggesting limited opportunity on the glass in a game where her team was outmatched (-25 +/-). The combination of reduced floor time and low rebounding activity made the over unattainable.
- Charlisse Leger-Walker Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLeger-Walker fell just short with 2 rebounds despite playing 27 minutes, held back by an inefficient offensive night (0-3 FG) that limited her involvement around the rim and a team blowout (-29 +/-) that reduced second-half rebounding opportunities.
- Aliyah Boston Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5no clean explanationBoston's efficient 22-point night on 10-14 shooting came in just 20 minutes, limiting her board opportunities; she pulled down only 6 rebounds despite high usage, falling one short of the 7.5 line.
MIN @ SEA11–5+4.81u
- Jade Melbourne Over 7.5 PTS4 vs 7.5no clean explanationMelbourne's 4 points fell short of the 7.5 line despite 28 minutes of floor time due to brutal 2-6 shooting (33% TS) and an 0-4 night from three, leaving her with minimal offensive impact despite high availability.
- Kayla McBride Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Olivia Miles Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMiles fell one rebound short despite playing 31 minutes and logging heavy usage (26%), held back by her role as a primary ball-handler (6 assists) and limited offensive efficiency (5-15 FG) that kept her off the glass.
- Kayla McBride Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Natasha Howard Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played only 26 minutes and grabbed just 5 rebounds despite solid efficiency, falling one board short of the 6.5 line due to limited floor time and a low-usage role (18% usage). The blowout win (+12 +/-) likely reduced her rebounding opportunities in a game that didn't require extended minutes.
07/2019–8 ·3 void70%+6.32u4 games
NYL @ DAL4–5 ·3 void−2.24u
- Azzi Fudd Over 1.5 REB1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upFudd played a game-high 43 minutes but grabbed just 1 rebound, failing to crash the glass despite heavy shot volume—a rare occurrence that underscores how perimeter-focused her game was in this matchup. With limited paint touches and no second-chance opportunities, she fell short of the 2-board threshold even in extended run.
- Pauline Astier Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanationAstier's playmaking dried up despite 25 minutes of run, recording just 1 assist while turning the ball over once and posting a team-worst -7 rating. Her 20% usage rate and poor offensive efficiency (35% TS%) limited her ability to create for teammates in a game where the team struggled overall.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 16.5 PTS29 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale's elite free-throw shooting (8-8) and high usage rate (37%) powered her well past the under, as she compensated for below-average field-goal efficiency (9-24 FG) by drawing fouls and staying on the court for 38 minutes in a competitive game. The combination of volume opportunities and perfect shooting from the line nearly doubled the betting line.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 15.5 PTS29 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale nearly doubled the 15.5 line by dominating usage at 37% while staying efficient from three (3-5) and perfect from the free-throw line (8-8), combining volume with precision to reach 29 points across 38 minutes.
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 14.5 PTS29 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale nearly doubled the projection by playing all 38 minutes and dominating usage at 37%, converting 8-of-8 free throws and hitting timely three-pointers (3-5) to reach 29 points despite a modest 37% field-goal percentage. The Under's cushion evaporated against a player operating as the primary offensive engine in a high-volume role.
WAS @ GSV1–0+0.58u
MIN @ SEA6–2+2.93u
- Courtney Williams Under 16.5 PTS21 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams torched the under with efficient scoring, shooting 8-of-13 from the field (62%) and converting all four free throws to reach 21 points in 33 minutes. Her 71% true shooting and high-volume scoring night—despite a modest 21% usage rate—indicates she capitalized on premium looks and shot selection rather than heavy ball handling.
- Dominique Malonga Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationMalonga stayed volume-focused on scoring and rebounding (14 pts, 9 reb in 27 min) but generated just 1 assist, indicating the offense ran through her as a finisher rather than a facilitator despite the 25% usage rate. Two turnovers and limited ball-movement opportunities in what appeared to be a slower-paced game kept her below the 1.5 assist threshold.
LVA @ TOR8–1+5.05u
- Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 REB1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upLoyd came up one rebound short despite solid scoring efficiency (11 pts on 65% TS in 23 min), as limited usage (19%) and modest playing time restricted her opportunity to crash the glass for a second board.
07/1916–1257%−0.14u3 games
CHI @ ATL8–7−0.63u
- Allisha Gray Under 19.5 PTS29 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's elite efficiency—87% true shooting on 7-11 shooting and 11-13 from the line—propelled her well past 19.5 despite moderate 21% usage, as she converted at an unusually high rate in 35 minutes of action.
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 7.5 REB4 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberCardoso came up well short at just 4 rebounds despite efficient scoring (6-9 FG), limited by only 24 minutes played and a quiet night on the glass that never materialized despite her inside presence. The under-25 minute workload was the primary culprit, preventing her from accumulating the volume needed to reach 7.5 boards.
- Brionna Jones Over 6.5 PTS6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upJones shot just 1-6 from the field (17%) and played only 15 minutes, limiting her scoring despite converting all four free throws. The poor field-goal efficiency and restricted minutes prevented her from reaching the 7-point threshold needed to cash the over.
- Brionna Jones Over 7.5 PTS6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones shot just 1-for-6 from the field (17% FG) despite 15 minutes of run, and while she converted all four free throws, the poor field-goal efficiency left her one point short of the over.
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 AST6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward more than doubled the projection as the primary playmaker off the bench, recording 6 assists across 35 minutes despite modest scoring (11 pts on 36% FG), suggesting she operated in a facilitator role rather than scoring-first mode.
- Allisha Gray Under 3.5 REB6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray's elite shooting night (7-11 FG, 4-6 3PT, 11-13 FT) kept her on the floor for a game-high 35 minutes, allowing her to crash the glass more opportunistically than her modest 21% usage rate might suggest. She secured 6 boards despite modest volume, exceeding the under by one rebound in a high-efficiency performance.
LAS @ DAL3–2−0.22u
- Jessica Shepard Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5no clean explanation
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 14.5 PTS20 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale torched the under by going 7-13 from the field (54% FG) and 5-6 from the free-throw line while seeing a healthy 31 minutes of run, generating 20 points on efficient 64% true shooting that far exceeded her typical scoring pace.
CON @ PHO5–3+0.71u
- Monique Akoa Makani Under 2.5 REB6 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMakani stayed on the floor for a full 32 minutes and crashed the glass aggressively, pulling down 6 rebounds despite modest offensive touches—more than double the 2.5-rebound line. Her extended playing time and activity on the boards in a blowout win (+17) meant higher rebounding volume than the projection accounted for.
- Natasha Mack Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMack came up one rebound short despite solid efficiency, held back by just 20 minutes of playing time in a blowout where her team didn't need extended minutes.
- Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanationCopper's elevated 35 minutes and 30% usage rate—well above typical for her—gave her more opportunities to facilitate, and she converted those chances with 4 assists despite a modest 5-14 shooting night. The extended run in a competitive game pushed her over the 2.5 threshold.
07/1815–383%+9.02u3 games
WAS @ GSV1–2−1.17u
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 6.5 PTS6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberZandalasini came up just short despite 26 minutes of run, shooting only 3-8 from the field (37.5%) and missing all three 3-point attempts in a low-efficiency night that yielded just 6 points on 36% true shooting.
- Sonia Citron Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5no clean explanationCitron's efficient scoring night (5-6 FG, 87% TS) masked a complete absence on the glass, grabbing just 1 rebound in 30 minutes—a significant drop from her usage rate and minutes played that typically correlate with board work. The mismatch between her offensive output and rebounding likely reflects limited opportunities fighting for position or a game flow that didn't funnel her toward the glass.
NYL @ IND5–0+3.92u
POR @ MIN9–1+6.26u
- Olivia Miles Under 6.5 AST10 vs 6.5no clean explanationMiles exceeded the 6.5 assist line by dishing out 10 assists on 34 minutes and 23% usage, operating as the primary ball-handler in a game flow that favored her playmaking over scoring. Despite shooting inefficiently (5-14 FG), her elevated minutes and offensive touches created plenty of assist opportunities that she converted at a high rate.
07/1721–1166%+4.35u4 games
LAS @ CHI3–5−3.15u
- Rae Burrell Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5no clean explanationBurrell nearly doubled her recent assist average by dishing 5 helpers in 31 minutes, exceeding her L10 baseline of 2.6 and breaking the under despite modest 16% usage and a blowout loss environment.
- Natasha Cloud Under 11.5 PTS15 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud exceeded her L10 average of 9.4 and the 11.5 line by posting 15 points on elite 69% true shooting, including 3-for-6 from three, while playing a full 32 minutes without foul trouble to constrain her opportunities.
- Natasha Cloud Under 3.5 REB6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud doubled her recent rebounding average with 6 boards, benefiting from an extra 6 minutes of court time (32 vs. 26.2 pregame expectation) and increased involvement as a playmaker (9 assists on 14% usage suggesting heavy ball-handling and floor time).
- Erica Wheeler Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWheeler played 32 minutes with elevated usage (22%), but generated only 4 assists despite 14 points, suggesting shot-heavy offense rather than playmaking—she took 12 FG attempts compared to her typical distribution. The -13 +/- indicates the team played poorly around her, limiting assist opportunities even with extended run.
- Natasha Cloud Under 5.5 AST9 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberCloud nearly doubled the target with 9 assists on a game-high 32 minutes and zero turnovers, functioning as the primary initiator in a blowout win (+11) where her efficiency (69% TS) kept the offense flowing without forcing shots.
ATL @ TOR5–4−0.75u
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward exceeded her season trends by dishing 5 assists despite inefficient scoring (4-13 FG, 0-7 3PT), suggesting she shifted into a playmaking role to compensate for her poor shot-making rather than stalling out as her recent 2.7–3.0 assist averages would have predicted.
- Maria Conde Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upConde finished with just 4 rebounds despite 31 minutes and solid free-throw volume (8-9 FT), falling one board short; Atlanta's elite defensive rebounding (rank 1, 30.13 RPG allowed) clamped down on second-chance opportunities and limited her to the exact season-average mark that looked like an outlier against her recent L5 (6.2 RPG) and L10 (5.83 RPG) trends.
- Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REB3 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison fell short of the 5.5 rebound line despite a respectable 21 minutes and 50% FG, finishing with just 3 boards—likely a function of limited opportunity in a game where she wasn't the primary rebounder and recorded only 3 fouls, suggesting minimal aggressive interior presence or rebounding activity.
- Laura Juskaite Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5paid over the fair numberJuskaite played 28 minutes—within her recent range—but generated zero assists despite 4 turnovers, suggesting poor ball movement and decision-making rather than limited opportunity; she also shot just 50% TS, indicating inefficiency that likely limited her playmaking touches in the half-court.
CON @ PHO6–2+3.01u
- Monique Akoa Makani Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upDespite a season-low 20 minutes and invisible scoring (0-for-6), Akoa Makani still reached 4 assists on modest 19% usage, suggesting she maintained setup duties even in limited action and off-night shooting. Her recent L10 average of 2.3 assists underestimated her floor playmaking role, which proved resilient enough to clear 3.5 despite the offensive drought.
- Kahleah Copper Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCopper fell one rebound short despite 35 minutes and heavy usage (28%), finishing with only 3 boards as Phoenix's spacing and ball movement limited her offensive rebounding opportunities and she didn't crash the glass enough on a night when the team controlled pace.
SEA @ IND7–0+5.25u
07/165–183%+2.89u2 games
NYL @ DAL1–0+0.62u
POR @ WAS4–1+2.26u
- Shakira Austin Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin's 4 assists came on 34 minutes and 28% usage, exceeding her L5 average of 2.4 and hitting the over despite a modest 50% TS%; the elevated floor time and offensive involvement in what became a close game pushed her into more playmaking opportunities than her recent trend suggested.
07/157–1335%−8.57u3 games
GSV @ IND1–8−7.22u
- Monique Billings Over 5.5 PTS4 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberBillings shot just 1-5 from the field (20%) and 2-4 from free throw, combining for a 30% true shooting rate that made up the entire scoring shortfall; despite playing 26 minutes with reasonable opportunity, inefficient shot selection and poor finishing prevented her from reaching 6 points.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMitchell fell just short despite 35 minutes of work, as Las Vegas's elite perimeter defense (allowing 31.3 PPG to guards, league's best) held her to 7-16 shooting (43.8%)—a significant dip from her 27.6 PPG average over her previous five games. The one-point miss came down to shot-making: she needed just 22 points to cash but couldn't overcome the cold shooting night against the WNBA's top-ranked defense.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS13 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberClark shot just 4-14 from the field (28.6%) and 1-8 from three despite playing 26 minutes with 36% usage, relying too heavily on free throws (4-5) to reach only 13 points. The poor efficiency and cold shooting from the field left her three points short of the over.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMitchell shot 7-16 from the field and missed critical attempts down the stretch in a tight game, falling one point short despite her heavy usage and efficient free-throw shooting. The recent 25.9 PPG average didn't materialize due to below-season-average efficiency (58% TS vs her typical output), costing her the half-point push needed to clear 20.5.
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 22.5 PTS20 vs 22.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell fell just short despite efficient shooting (7-16 FG, 58% TS) because her 25% usage rate limited her volume—she needed either more shot attempts or free throw opportunities to clear 22.5 in 35 minutes. Four personal fouls also likely restricted her aggression down the stretch.
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS13 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's efficient recent form evaporated as she shot just 4-14 FG (28.6%) and 1-8 from three, falling two points short despite playing 26 minutes with high usage—a sharp departure from her 21.3 ppg L10 average that justified the aggressive line.
SEA @ CHI2–4−2.74u
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 15.5 PTS6 vs 15.5no clean explanationHiedeman's 27% TS and 3-11 shooting (27% FG) represented a catastrophic collapse from her L10/L5 averages of 18.5–18.8 PPG, despite logging 30 minutes and maintaining her typical 18% usage rate. The offensive efficiency breakdown—compounded by 0-5 from three—overwhelmed volume to render the over unplayable.
- Natasha Cloud Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud exceeded the under threshold by a single assist despite modest 16% usage, generating 6 dimes in 30 minutes with efficient scoring (85% TS%) that kept her engaged in the offense—the sharp +130 value proved vulnerable to even slight playmaking variance in a close final tally.
- Natasha Cloud Under 11.5 PTS13 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud's efficient 85% true shooting—fueled by a perfect 5-6 from the free-throw line—pushed her just over the line despite 16% usage and a shooting profile (3-5 FG, 2-3 3PT) that aligned with her season trends; the free-throw volume was the outlier that tipped the under.
- Azura Stevens Under 14.5 PTS20 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStevens shot 50% from the field and 50% from three—well above her season efficiency—and played a full 33 minutes without fouling out, allowing her to exceed the 14.5 line by 5.5 points despite matching her recent 12.0 ppg average.
LAS @ MIN4–1+1.39u
- Courtney Williams Under 16.5 PTS19 vs 16.5no clean explanationWilliams exceeded the 16.5 line by converting 7-of-13 shots (53.8% FG) with efficient free-throw shooting (4-5), offsetting her cold 3-point night to reach 19 points on 62% true shooting despite modest 23% usage. The bet missed because she played high-volume interior offense in a competitive game (35 minutes, -3 +/-) rather than defaulting to her recent 13.5 ppg pace.
07/147–188%+3.89u2 games
WAS @ TOR3–1+0.76u
- Isabelle Harrison Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison fell one rebound short despite 21 minutes and 26% usage; she fouled out with 6 PF late in the game, which limited her ability to crash the glass and secure the final board needed to clear 5.5.
POR @ CON4–0+3.14u
07/1313–381%+6.90u2 games
PHO @ MIN3–1+1.22u
- Kahleah Copper Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberCopper's 3 rebounds fell short despite 32 minutes and elite 80% TS efficiency, as the Phoenix offense's pace and ball movement (1 assist, 26% usage) limited her individual rebounding opportunities compared to her L10 average of 5.2. Her scoring prowess (26 pts on 9-14 FG) came at the expense of the glass work needed to hit the over.
LAS @ ATL10–2+5.68u
- Rae Burrell Under 2.5 REB4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell grabbed 4 rebounds in 33 minutes—above her recent 1.8 average per game—after seeing elevated usage (18%) and playing through foul trouble (3 PF) in what became a competitive game rather than the blowout that might have limited her rebounding opportunities.
- Ariel Atkins Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins exceeded the 10.5 line by converting 5-of-11 from the field (45% FG) and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF in 34 min), pushing her above recent trends despite a modest 18% usage rate and 0-3 three-point shooting. The recency fade proved vulnerable when her mid-range shot was falling and she stayed on the floor.
07/1220–1165%+4.12u4 games
IND @ LVA7–6−0.53u
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS12 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark played just 24 minutes—3.2 below her recent average—and shot 45% from the field (5-11 FG, 1-5 3PT), well below her season efficiency, combining to hold her to 12 points despite 30% usage.
- Jackie Young Over 16.5 PTS15 vs 16.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationYoung fell just short despite solid efficiency (70% TS), held to only 16% usage and 32 minutes as the Aces' offense stalled in a blowout loss (-17), limiting her scoring opportunities below her L5 average of 17.8.
- Jackie Young Over 5.5 AST3 vs 5.5no clean explanationYoung played only 32 minutes (one fewer than projected) and saw her usage collapse to 16%—well below her season average—in a game Las Vegas lost by 17, limiting her creation opportunities to just 3 assists despite solid efficiency. The blowout loss combined with reduced floor time short-circuited the assist volume needed to clear 5.5.
- Chelsea Gray Over 6.5 AST6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationGray came up one assist shy despite 30 minutes, held back by a season-low 21% usage rate and 5 turnovers that limited her facilitating impact. The recent-form surge didn't materialize in this lower-volume outing.
- Caitlin Clark Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's 5-11 shooting (45% FG) and 1-5 from three fell short of the volume needed to clear 14.5 despite the high-scoring environment, compounded by just 24 minutes of action that limited her scoring opportunities despite 30% usage. The combination of modest efficiency and restricted playing time left her 2.5 points shy despite the 182.5 total environment supporting a higher output.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS12 vs 16.5paid over the fair numberClark's 12 points fell 4.5 short despite 24 minutes of action, held back by poor perimeter shooting (1-5 from three) and an inefficient 45% overall FG that limited her scoring punch even as she maintained solid playmaking with 6 assists.
SEA @ WAS3–2+0.33u
- Shakira Austin Over 8.5 REB5 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin played 33 minutes with high usage (30%) and elite scoring efficiency (64% TS%), but grabbed just 5 boards—a sharp departure from her L10 average of 10.2—suggesting opponent box-outs or a slower rebounding pace limited her glass work despite heavy offensive touches.
- Shakira Austin Under 13.5 PTS27 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAustin exploded far beyond her recent baseline, shooting 55.6% from the field (10-18) with 64% true shooting and 30% usage—a dramatic uptick from her L10 average of 10.9 PPG—to finish with 27 points in 33 minutes, completely invalidating the under at 13.5.
NYL @ TOR5–2+1.49u
- Jonquel Jones Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5no clean explanationJones shot just 3-8 from the field (37.5% FG) and 1-5 from three despite playing 31 minutes, falling short of her 13.5 prop due to inefficient scoring rather than lack of opportunity. Her 15% usage rate and 51% true shooting—well below her season norms—indicate cold shooting was the primary culprit in missing the total by 3.5 points.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 8 assists crushed the 5.5 line despite modest recent form, driven by elevated usage (26%) and a full 33 minutes that exceeded the pre-game projection, allowing her playmaking to flourish in a high-volume role. Toronto's neutral guard defense and Ionescu's aggressive shot creation (9-18 FG, 7-8 FT) created natural assist opportunities that our model—anchored to her 3.8-assist average over 10 games—failed to account for.
CHI @ DAL5–1+2.83u
- Natasha Cloud Under 10.5 PTS15 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud shot 5-8 from the field (62.5%) with a perfect 5-5 from free throw, converting at 74% TS despite her season usage staying modest at 18%—elite efficiency on limited volume overwhelmed her recent scoring averages. The bet needed her to stay within her L5 average of 8.6 points, but a hot shooting night pushed her past the line even without elevated shot attempts.
07/1117–10 ·1 void63%+2.44u3 games
PHO @ LVA2–3−1.76u
- Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 PTS9 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCopper's ice-cold 4-14 shooting (29% FG, 32% TS%) and uncharacteristic 0-0 from the free-throw line derailed the over despite playing 29 minutes at elevated usage (27%), a stark collapse from her recent 25–26 ppg form. The -41 rating suggests a blowout environment that limited her volume and efficiency opportunities.
- Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 PTS9 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCopper's catastrophic 4-14 FG (29% from the field) and 1-6 from three despite playing 29 minutes and maintaining her usual 27% usage rate torpedoed the over; a -41 +/- suggests she faced a blowout environment that limited her offensive rhythm.
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 AST1 vs 7.5no clean explanationThomas played just 28 minutes—well below her 33.8 L10 average—and recorded only 1 assist on 16% usage, a dramatic collapse from her recent 8.9 L10 assists per game. The combination of reduced floor time and a blowout loss (-36 +/-) severely limited her opportunities to facilitate.
POR @ ATL3–4 ·1 void−1.69u
- Madina Okot Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOkot exceeded the 6.5 rebound line by grabbing 8 boards in 22 minutes, capitalizing on a 33% usage rate and 7-14 shooting efficiency that kept her heavily involved on the glass. Her activity on the offensive end—combined with limited foul trouble (1 PF)—allowed her to stay on the floor and compete for rebounds throughout.
- Naz Hillmon Under 5.5 REB8 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberHillmon crushed the boards with 8 rebounds despite matching her season average in usage (17%), getting a boost from 36 minutes—10 minutes above her pre-game baseline—in a competitive game that stayed tight enough to keep her on the floor. The elevated playing time, combined with her 6 offensive rebounds, easily cleared the 5.5 line.
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberHoward hit the over despite modest offensive efficiency (3-9 FG, 51% TS) because she was heavily involved in playmaking and ball-handling duties in the starting role (31 min, 4 steals), generating one more assist than her season average of 2.8 to clear the 3.5 line.
- Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5no clean explanationCarleton's 4 assists exceeded the 2.5 line despite modest 14% usage, as she operated efficiently in 34 minutes and converted 4-of-9 field goals to generate multiple scoring opportunities for teammates. The under was vulnerable given her elevated floor time and playmaking role in what became a blowout (+17), where pace and ball movement typically increase in non-competitive games.
NYL @ MIN12–3+5.89u
- Marine Johannes Under 7.5 PTS14 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohannes doubled her projected total on 70% true shooting, draining 4 three-pointers in 23 minutes of efficient offensive output that far exceeded the 7.5-point threshold. The under relied on her staying in single digits, but she turned a modest 19% usage rate into elite scoring efficiency that proved too high a bar.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS25 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's elite 57% true shooting on 31% usage—fueled by a perfect 4-for-4 night from the stripe and efficient 9-for-20 overall—pushed her well over the 15.5 threshold despite modest three-point volume (3-12). She played 35 minutes without foul trouble, giving her the volume and efficiency runway to hit 25 points in a game where the offense clicked.
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upIonescu's 5 assists came despite modest playmaking efficiency (3 turnovers in 35 minutes), driven primarily by her team-leading 31% usage rate that kept her heavily involved in shot creation rather than traditional facilitation. The under missed by the slimmest margin on a night where she prioritized scoring (25 points on 20 shots) but still accumulated just enough dimes to cross the 4.5 threshold.
07/106–650%−1.84u3 games
GSV @ CON0–2−2.00u
- Veronica Burton Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton torched the under by shooting 7-12 (58% FG) with efficient finishing at the rim, a dramatic spike from her 9.0 PPG L10 average and well above the 11.5 line despite modest 22% usage. Her 33 minutes and +16 rating indicated a blowout win where she didn't need high volume to exceed the projection.
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upNelson-Ododa exceeded her season trend with 4 assists despite modest 25 minutes and 36% usage, likely benefiting from increased playmaking opportunities in a game where she recorded 8 rebounds and saw elevated ball-handling responsibilities. The pre-game under was vulnerable given her borderline touch to 2.5 with only a 4.2-percentage-point edge in implied probability over fair value.
CHI @ LAS4–3−0.25u
- Ariel Atkins Under 9.5 PTS17 vs 9.5paid over the fair numberAtkins torched the under with an unusually efficient 7-13 shooting night (54% FG) despite modest 21% usage, converting at a 63% true shooting rate that far exceeded her season baseline and the game script. The sharp under thesis crumbled on her hot hand—she simply shot the lights out in 29 minutes rather than the inefficient, limited-volume night the projection anticipated.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded her season L10 assist average (4.7) by operating as the primary ball-handler in a blowout win (+19), tallying 8 dimes across 28 minutes despite modest 18% usage. Her elevated assist total came from increased playmaking responsibility in a game flow that favored pace and spacing rather than the slower, isolation-heavy possessions that had limited her to sub-6 assist games in recent weeks.
- Dearica Hamby Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationHamby exceeded the 2.5 assist line by recording 3 dimes despite modest usage (22%), benefiting from 30 minutes of floor time and a +12 rating that suggests she operated in flow within a winning game script. The one extra assist came from solid playmaking efficiency rather than a dramatic uptick in ball-handling—she simply didn't turn it over (1 TOV) and stayed engaged throughout the full half-hour.
DAL @ TOR2–1+0.41u
- Isabelle Harrison Under 7.5 REB8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberHarrison's elite 80% shooting efficiency (8-10 FG) kept her on the floor for a full 26 minutes despite the team's blowout loss, and she grabbed 8 boards on just 22% usage—matching her L5 average of 7.2 and exceeding the 7.5 line by one rebound in a game where volume should have favored the under.
07/0915–575%+5.77u3 games
IND @ PHO4–4−1.00u
- Tyasha Harris Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5no clean explanationHarris exceeded her season trend with 5 assists in 22 minutes—a pace that would have yielded 11+ assists over a full game—as she operated as the primary ball-handler in a blowout win (+4 net rating), bucking her L10 average of 1.9 dimes that had made the 3.5 line vulnerable to the under.
- Tyasha Harris Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHarris exceeded her 4.5 assist line by distributing 5 dimes in 22 minutes, a modest uptick from her 1.9 L10 average but enough to cash the over despite limited usage at 19%—the pre-game data flagged the under as mispriced, and Harris's efficient playmaking in concentrated minutes delivered. Her near-perfect shooting night (94% TS on 19% usage) created natural assist opportunities that pushed her just past the line.
- Lexie Hull Under 9.5 PTS10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHull shot 83% TS% on 16% usage, converting 4-of-6 from the field including 2-of-3 from three, pushing her just over the 9.5 line despite playing only 18 minutes. The efficient shooting on limited volume—particularly the 3-point success—proved enough to narrowly beat an under that relied on her staying closer to her L10 average of 6.7 points.
- Tyasha Harris Under 7.5 PTS15 vs 7.5paid over the fair numberHarris nearly doubled her season average on 22 minutes (8 more than her L5 baseline) and shot an elite 75% from the field including 75% from three, torching the efficiency assumptions baked into the under.
LVA @ POR3–1+0.97u
- Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton delivered exactly one more assist than her 1.5 L10 average despite playing under her typical 31.2 min, aided by a game situation that likely generated more ball movement; her 20% usage and modest shooting efficiency (3-10 FG) meant she wasn't forcing playmaking, but the extra dime came through nonetheless.
SEA @ ATL8–0+5.79u
07/088–1338%−7.07u3 games
IND @ LAS4–9−6.10u
- Ariel Atkins Under 10.5 PTS12 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAtkins exceeded her recent form (L5 avg 6.2) by converting 55% true shooting on 17% usage, particularly capitalizing on 2-2 free throw shooting to reach 12 points in 31 minutes. The under was predicated on her sub-7 ppg trend, but she stayed efficient enough to clear the 10.5 line despite modest 40% field goal shooting.
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded the 5.5 line by one assist (finished with 6) despite modest 29 minutes and 16% usage, hitting her recent L5 average of 5.2 and staying consistent with her tendency to operate as a primary ball-handler in limited floor time.
- Caitlin Clark Over 16.5 PTS9 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark's devastating 4-12 shooting night (33% FG, 17% from three) combined with just 16 minutes of playing time—well below her season norm—resulted in a nine-point outing that fell seven points short of the over. The limited minutes and ice-cold efficiency from the field were the primary drivers, as her 38% true shooting was nearly 10 percentage points below what the sharp market had implied for this matchup.
- Caitlin Clark Over 17.5 PTS9 vs 17.5no clean explanationClark played just 16 minutes—nearly half her 31.8-minute average—and shot inefficiently (4-12 FG, 1-6 3PT), combining for a brutal 38% TS that made her scoring unsustainable despite 40% usage. The reduced playing time, likely tied to foul trouble (1 PF registered but possible early-game limitations) and a lopsided -16 +/-, was the primary throttle on volume.
- Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 AST3 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark was limited to just 16 minutes of play, slashing her usual volume in half—she averaged 8.2 assists over her last 10 games but had no opportunity to reach that pace in a game where she saw minimal court time. Four turnovers on only 9 points further constrained her assist opportunities despite maintaining elevated usage at 40%.
- Caitlin Clark Over 15.5 PTS9 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upClark shot just 4-12 from the field and 1-6 from three in only 16 minutes of action, finishing at 38% true shooting—well below the efficiency needed to clear 15.5 despite her 40% usage rate. The game never developed into the fast-paced, high-scoring affair anticipated, and her early foul trouble (4 fouls) limited her opportunity to accumulate scoring volume.
GSV @ TOR0–2−2.00u
- Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS15 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton erupted from deep, converting 3-of-5 three-pointers and posting a 97% true shooting rate—a dramatic departure from her L10 average of 5.3 ppg—while playing nearly her season average in minutes (25), negating the pre-game edge that relied on her recent cold-shooting profile. The efficient 4-6 overall shooting and perfect 4-4 from the line doubled her projected output despite comparable playing time.
- Veronica Burton Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurton played just 21 minutes—well short of her 27.2 L10 average—which severely limited her rebound opportunities despite solid efficiency. The reduced run, likely due to game flow or rotation decisions, made the 2.5 rebound line unattainable even though she stayed out of foul trouble.
MIN @ CON4–2+1.03u
- Courtney Williams Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded her recent trend (L10: 3.9 APG) by distributing the ball at a higher rate tonight, finishing with 7 assists on 28% usage and 30 minutes—a marked uptick from her pattern of rarely hitting the over on this line.
- Kayla McBride Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationMcBride exceeded her recent assist average (2.4 L5) by logging a season-high 38 minutes in a game where she shot 90% from the field, elevating her offensive rhythm and creating more ball-movement opportunities than her typical role. Her zero turnovers on 17% usage also indicates she maintained efficient decision-making throughout the extended run.
07/0710–3 ·1 void77%+4.62u2 games
CHI @ PHO4–2 ·1 void+1.17u
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 AST5 vs 7.5no clean explanationThomas finished with 5 assists on 23% usage in 31 minutes—down from her L10 average of 8.7—as Connecticut's offense struggled in a low-scoring game, and she committed 5 turnovers that limited her playmaking opportunities.
- Valeriane Ayayi Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAyayi grabbed 6 rebounds in 28 minutes despite modest 19% usage, likely benefiting from increased offensive rebounding opportunities or second-chance possessions that pushed her just over the 5.5 line. The under missed by a single rebound in what was otherwise a quiet, efficient night.
DAL @ NYL6–1+3.45u
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5no clean explanationOgunbowale crashed to just 1 rebound despite 32 minutes and normal usage (14%), a stark departure from her L10 average of 3.6—she simply wasn't in position to crash the glass, finishing with only 3 FG attempts and playing a perimeter-heavy role that limited her rebounding opportunities.
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.