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Aicha Coulibaly in blowouts

30 of 30 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
12 of these · baseline 18NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (5.9 pts) against in closer games (4.7), +1.3, t = 0.81, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.9
4.7
+1.3
t +0.81 · resolves ±3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.8
2.6
+0.2
t +0.27 · resolves ±1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.6
0.0
t −0.10 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
+0.1
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.7
0.7
0.0
t 0.00 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
t −0.63 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
0.7
+0.2
t +0.55 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.3
7.8
+1.4
t +0.75 · resolves ±3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.7
7.2
+1.4
t +0.81 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.5
5.3
+1.2
t +0.74 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.3
3.2
+0.2
t +0.20 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.9
−0.1
t −0.31 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 188 (this player's own top tercile)
11 of these · baseline 19NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (5.0 pts) against other games (5.3), -0.3, t = -0.17, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.0
5.3
−0.3
t −0.17 · resolves ±3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.9
2.5
+0.4
t +0.58 · resolves ±1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.6
−0.1
t −0.32 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.1
−0.1
t −1.00 · resolves ±0.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.5
0.8
−0.3
t −1.22 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
t −1.39 · resolves ±0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
t −0.03 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.5
8.4
+0.1
t +0.04 · resolves ±3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.9
7.7
+0.2
t +0.09 · resolves ±3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.5
5.9
−0.3
t −0.21 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.5
3.1
+0.3
t +0.41 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
1.1
−0.6
t −1.71 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 176 (this player's own bottom tercile)
11 of these · baseline 19NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (5.1 pts) against other games (5.2), -0.1, t = -0.08, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.1
5.2
−0.1
t −0.08 · resolves ±2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.7
2.6
+0.1
t +0.19 · resolves ±1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.6
+0.1
t +0.15 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
+0.1
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.9
0.5
+0.4
t +1.29 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.2
t +0.93 · resolves ±0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.0
0.6
+0.4
t +1.27 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
8.5
8.4
+0.1
t +0.05 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.8
7.8
0.0
t +0.02 · resolves ±3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.7
5.8
−0.1
t −0.04 · resolves ±3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.4
3.2
+0.2
t +0.23 · resolves ±1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.3
0.7
+0.6
t +1.83 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 30 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.7
2026-09-19
ATL
AWAY
14.9MIN
11POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
67.1
USG%
23.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
12
2026-09-17
WAS
HOME
14.6MIN
9POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
5-6
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
52.1
USG%
28.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
12
2026-08-29
NYL
AWAY
13.4MIN
0POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
4
2026-08-25
CON
AWAY
14.9MIN
4POINTS
6 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
69.4
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-11
PRA
11
2026-08-23
IND
HOME
18.1MIN
12POINTS
6 · 1 · 5-5
ABOVE
FG
5-5
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
102.0
USG%
16.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
19
2026-08-21
GSV
HOME
1.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
27.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-08-16
SEA
AWAY
13.9MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
11.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
4
2026-08-12
GSV
AWAY
20.2MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
103.1
USG%
11.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
9
2026-08-10
SEA
AWAY
10.5MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
43.6
USG%
13.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
6
2026-08-08
IND
HOME
19.8MIN
6POINTS
2 · 4 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
51.0
USG%
13.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+16
PRA
12
2026-08-05
LAS
HOME
24.1MIN
13POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-1
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
90.3
USG%
15.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
17
2026-08-03
PHO
HOME
10.7MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
27.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
7
2026-08-01
LVA
HOME
24.0MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-1
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
51.5
USG%
13.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
11
2026-07-30
CON
HOME
13.1MIN
3POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
61.5
USG%
11.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
7
2026-07-22
NYL
AWAY
9.4MIN
4POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
24.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-07-19
ATL
AWAY
5.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
53.2
USG%
15.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-07-17
LAS
HOME
3.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
24.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+9
PRA
4
2026-07-10
LAS
AWAY
13.2MIN
7POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
73.5
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-07-07
PHO
AWAY
13.5MIN
8POINTS
7 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
84.0
USG%
19.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+14
PRA
16
2026-07-03
LVA
AWAY
9.1MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
5
2026-06-28
LVA
HOME
9.4MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
12.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
2
2026-06-24
POR
HOME
15.3MIN
10POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
4-6
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
75.3
USG%
21.3
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+20
PRA
14
2026-06-17
NYL
HOME
10.7MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2026-06-11
IND
AWAY
14.9MIN
6POINTS
6 · 1 · 0-3
ABOVE
FG
0-3
3PT
0-0
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
46.0
USG%
17.9
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
13
2026-05-29
MIN
HOME
11.2MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
28.6
USG%
37.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
7
2026-05-27
TOR
HOME
18.1MIN
9POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
72.6
USG%
16.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2026-05-20
DAL
HOME
15.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-17
MIN
AWAY
21.3MIN
8POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-8
ABOVE
FG
1-8
3PT
0-1
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
37.6
USG%
21.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
10
2026-05-15
PHO
AWAY
15.8MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-05-09
POR
AWAY
6.2MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
3
every game on file — nothing hidden