LIVE FEED UNAVAILABLE · figures withheld rather than replacedCORE BENCHMARK · loading verified results

The Ledger.

Every eligible priced signal from the same CORE formula that feeds Tonight's Board, normalized to a flat 1-unit benchmark. The Board posts this same population, capped per game, with the model stake shown where the model certifies one.

CORE FORMULA BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization

One book.
One source of truth.

The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.

P&L unavailableThe live feed did not answer, so no synthetic curve is rendered.

HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA

The same 10434 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: consensus_devig · prices 1.70+. Every settled entry is represented below.

A+

34–9

+18.7u · +43.6% ROI · 79% hit · n=43 · 11 void

≥65% calibrated hit probability (price-derived)

238–163

+30.2u · +7.5% ROI · 59% hit · n=401 · 42 void

≥60% calibrated hit probability

687–618

−1.3u · −0.1% ROI · 53% hit · n=1305 · 128 void

≥55% calibrated hit probability

811–835

+58.0u · +3.5% ROI · 49% hit · n=1646 · 172 void

≥52% calibrated hit probability · thin lean

Below 52%

2470–3585

−48.5u · −0.8% ROI · 41% hit · n=6055 · 631 void

<52% calibrated hit probability · tracked, not a conviction signal

The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →

EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days

THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · last 7 days

Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.

Slip size	W–L–void	Claimed hit	Realized hit	Units	ROI
3-leg	1–5–0	27%	17%	−1.54u	−26%
3-leg (disciplined)	0–6–0	24%	0%	−6.00u	−100%
2-leg	2–4–0	43%	33%	−0.77u	−13%
2-leg (disciplined)	2–4–0	39%	33%	−0.04u	−1%

Date	Legs	Odds	Claimed	EV	Result
11-13	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Davion Mitchell U2.5 thr + Keyonte George U2.5 thr	+360	28%	+27%	LOSS
11-13	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Keyonte George U2.5 thr + Andrew Nembhard O1.5 thr	+362	26%	+21%	LOSS
11-13	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Davion Mitchell U2.5 thr	+186	42%	+21%	LOSS
11-13	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Keyonte George U2.5 thr	+175	42%	+16%	LOSS
11-12	Trae Young U2.5 thr + VJ Edgecombe U3.5 ass + Devin Booker U3.5 reb	+438	25%	+35%	LOSS
11-12	Kyshawn George O1.5 thr + Jalen Green U1.5 thr + Cooper Flagg O5.5 ass	+458	20%	+14%	LOSS
11-12	Trae Young U2.5 thr + VJ Edgecombe U3.5 ass	+201	41%	+23%	LOSS
11-12	Kyshawn George O1.5 thr + Jalen Green U1.5 thr	+201	36%	+8%	WIN
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + Kyshawn George U2.5 thr + Trae Young U2.5 thr	+328	27%	+15%	LOSS
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + AJ Dybantsa U1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O1.5 thr	+335	27%	+18%	LOSS
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + Kyshawn George U2.5 thr	+154	43%	+11%	LOSS
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + AJ Dybantsa U1.5 thr	+160	43%	+12%	LOSS
11-10	Ajay Mitchell U1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr + Darryn Peterson O1.5 thr	+346	28%	+24%	WIN
11-10	LeBron James U1.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr + Davion Mitchell O1.5 thr	+427	23%	+22%	LOSS
11-10	Ajay Mitchell U1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr	+164	43%	+14%	WIN
11-10	LeBron James U1.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr	+201	39%	+16%	LOSS
11-09	Alex Sarr O0.5 thr + R.J. Barrett O1.5 thr + Immanuel Quickley U6.5 ass	+389	24%	+20%	LOSS
11-09	Cooper Flagg U7.5 reb + Oso Ighodaro O4.5 reb + Cedric Coward O1.5 thr	+503	20%	+20%	LOSS
11-09	Alex Sarr O0.5 thr + R.J. Barrett O1.5 thr	+158	41%	+7%	LOSS
11-09	Cooper Flagg U7.5 reb + Oso Ighodaro O4.5 reb	+232	35%	+15%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Bobby Portis U1.5 thr + Kyle Kuzma U1.5 thr	+317	31%	+29%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + LeBron James U1.5 thr + Joel Embiid U22.5 poi	+372	26%	+24%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Bobby Portis U1.5 thr	+159	47%	+21%	WIN
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Ausar Thompson O6.5 reb	+195	40%	+19%	WIN

THE SHEET · live feed unavailableTHE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark

Wins and losses, row by row.

Pick-level ledger unavailableNo demo rows are being substituted for the live CORE benchmark.

The Ledger.

One book.One source of truth.

Wins and losses, row by row.

One book.
One source of truth.