A'ja Wilson over 23.5 points
She has cleared 23.5 in 122 of 239 games — 51.0%. That rate needs -105 to break even and books have been paying -123.
01
Distribution
239 games · hover a bucket0–5 points · 1 game · 0.4% · under1
5–10 points · 7 games · 2.9% · under7
10–15 points · 20 games · 8.4% · under20
15–20 points · 40 games · 16.7% · under40
20–25 points · 68 games · 28.5% · under68
25–30 points · 47 games · 19.7% · over47
30–35 points · 36 games · 15.1% · over36
35–40 points · 15 games · 6.3% · over15
40–45 points · 3 games · 1.3% · over3
45–50 points · 1 game · 0.4% · over1
50–55 points · 1 game · 0.4% · over1
23.5
UNDER · 117OVER · 122 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 23.5 · hover a bar2026-06-25 · DAL · 32 points · +8.5 vs line
2026-06-28 · CHI · 30 points · +6.5 vs line
2026-07-09 · POR · 32 points · +8.5 vs line
2026-07-11 · PHO · 21 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · IND · 20 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · TOR · 26 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-07-22 · WAS · 38 points · +14.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · POR · 28 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · NYL · 33 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-08-01 · CHI · 36 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-08-03 · ATL · 23 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · IND · 26 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-08 · MIN · 16 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-08-11 · WAS · 26 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-13 · WAS · 15 points · −8.5 vs line
2026-08-15 · MIN · 32 points · +8.5 vs line
2026-08-18 · ATL · 27 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-08-20 · CON · 20 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-08-23 · TOR · 27 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-08-28 · TOR · 27 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-09-17 · SEA · 29 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · SEA · 30 points · +6.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · LAS · 18 points · −5.5 vs line
2026-09-24 · PHO · 34 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-09-27 · IND · 38 points · +14.5 vs line
2026-09-29 · IND · 22 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-10-01 · IND · 36 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-10-04 · GSV · 24 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-10-07 · GSV · 24 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-10-09 · GSV · 21 points · −2.5 vs line
23.5
2026-06-25— 5-game mean2026-10-09 · newest
03
Recent form
70.0%7/10 · last 10
2026-09-17 · 29 points · OVER
29
2026-09-20 · 30 points · OVER
30
2026-09-22 · 18 points · UNDER
18
2026-09-24 · 34 points · OVER
34
2026-09-27 · 38 points · OVER
38
2026-09-29 · 22 points · UNDER
22
2026-10-01 · 36 points · OVER
36
2026-10-04 · 24 points · OVER
24
2026-10-07 · 24 points · OVER
24
2026-10-09 · 21 points · UNDER
21
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 26 postings23.5-123
best offered23.5+132
worst offered23.5-139
our break-even23.5-105
Median -123 across 26 postings over 8 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.
05
Game log
25 of 239 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 23.5
2026-10-09PLAYOFF R2 G3GSVHOME42.5MIN21POINTS10 · 1 · 6-19UNDER
- FG
- 6-19
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 8-11
- OREB/DREB
- 1/9
- TS%
- 44.0
- USG%
- 28.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -7
- PRA
- 32
2026-10-07PLAYOFF R2 G2GSVAWAY36.1MIN24POINTS7 · 2 · 9-16OVER
- FG
- 9-16
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 64.4
- USG%
- 28.8
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 33
2026-10-04PLAYOFF R2 G1GSVAWAY35.2MIN24POINTS4 · 0 · 8-21OVER
- FG
- 8-21
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 8-11
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 46.4
- USG%
- 39.3
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 28
2026-10-01PLAYOFF R1 G3INDHOME37.1MIN36POINTS10 · 1 · 11-18OVER
- FG
- 11-18
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 12-15
- OREB/DREB
- 0/10
- TS%
- 73.2
- USG%
- 30.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 47
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2INDAWAY34.1MIN22POINTS9 · 2 · 5-11UNDER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 12-13
- OREB/DREB
- 0/9
- TS%
- 65.8
- USG%
- 28.6
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -16
- PRA
- 33
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1INDHOME34.9MIN38POINTS16 · 2 · 15-19OVER
- FG
- 15-19
- 3PT
- 2-2
- FT
- 6-7
- OREB/DREB
- 4/12
- TS%
- 86.1
- USG%
- 32.4
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 4
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +29
- PRA
- 56
2026-09-24PHOAWAY34.6MIN34POINTS10 · 4 · 16-28OVER
- FG
- 16-28
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 3/7
- TS%
- 59.8
- USG%
- 37.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 48
2026-09-22LASHOME32.1MIN18POINTS10 · 2 · 7-15UNDER
- FG
- 7-15
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 3/7
- TS%
- 53.7
- USG%
- 28.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +11
- PRA
- 30
2026-09-20SEAHOME30.2MIN30POINTS8 · 4 · 7-13OVER
- FG
- 7-13
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 16-18
- OREB/DREB
- 1/7
- TS%
- 71.7
- USG%
- 34.4
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +24
- PRA
- 42
2026-09-17SEAAWAY28.9MIN29POINTS7 · 5 · 9-13OVER
- FG
- 9-13
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 10-10
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 83.3
- USG%
- 26.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +23
- PRA
- 41
2026-08-28TORHOME30.5MIN27POINTS8 · 2 · 10-17OVER
- FG
- 10-17
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 7-8
- OREB/DREB
- 2/6
- TS%
- 65.8
- USG%
- 32.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 37
2026-08-23TORAWAY30.5MIN27POINTS7 · 7 · 10-15OVER
- FG
- 10-15
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 6-8
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 72.9
- USG%
- 30.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 41
2026-08-20CONHOME27.4MIN20POINTS3 · 4 · 9-19UNDER
- FG
- 9-19
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 2-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 49.2
- USG%
- 32.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +22
- PRA
- 27
2026-08-18ATLHOME34.2MIN27POINTS14 · 3 · 7-18OVER
- FG
- 7-18
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 12-12
- OREB/DREB
- 2/12
- TS%
- 58.0
- USG%
- 36.4
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 4
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 44
2026-08-15MINHOME33.7MIN32POINTS7 · 1 · 10-15OVER
- FG
- 10-15
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 11-12
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 78.9
- USG%
- 28.1
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 40
2026-08-13WASHOME34.7MIN15POINTS6 · 4 · 5-14UNDER
- FG
- 5-14
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 4-5
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 46.3
- USG%
- 26.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +8
- PRA
- 25
2026-08-11WASHOME34.7MIN26POINTS13 · 2 · 10-18OVER
- FG
- 10-18
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 5-5
- OREB/DREB
- 2/11
- TS%
- 64.4
- USG%
- 34.5
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 4
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +13
- PRA
- 41
2026-08-08MINAWAY32.6MIN16POINTS8 · 1 · 5-17UNDER
- FG
- 5-17
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 5-6
- OREB/DREB
- 4/4
- TS%
- 40.7
- USG%
- 32.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 25
2026-08-06INDAWAY37.5MIN26POINTS13 · 3 · 10-25OVER
- FG
- 10-25
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 1/12
- TS%
- 47.0
- USG%
- 34.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 42
2026-08-03ATLAWAY30.1MIN23POINTS6 · 4 · 8-11UNDER
- FG
- 8-11
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/6
- TS%
- 84.3
- USG%
- 22.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 3
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +38
- PRA
- 33
2026-08-01CHIAWAY34.5MIN36POINTS12 · 4 · 13-27OVER
- FG
- 13-27
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 9-12
- OREB/DREB
- 5/7
- TS%
- 55.8
- USG%
- 40.6
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 52
2026-07-30NYLHOME35.7MIN33POINTS10 · 6 · 11-22OVER
- FG
- 11-22
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 10-11
- OREB/DREB
- 1/9
- TS%
- 61.5
- USG%
- 37.6
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +8
- PRA
- 49
2026-07-28PORHOME30.2MIN28POINTS14 · 4 · 7-10OVER
- FG
- 7-10
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 13-14
- OREB/DREB
- 1/13
- TS%
- 86.6
- USG%
- 31.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 46
2026-07-22WASAWAY34.8MIN38POINTS7 · 5 · 12-16OVER
- FG
- 12-16
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 12-13
- OREB/DREB
- 2/5
- TS%
- 87.5
- USG%
- 31.6
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 50
2026-07-20TORAWAY27.8MIN26POINTS6 · 4 · 11-14OVER
- FG
- 11-14
- 3PT
- 3-3
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 90.0
- USG%
- 23.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 4
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +24
- PRA
- 36
showing 25 of 239 — every rate above is computed over all 239