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Alicia Florez in blowouts

37 of 37 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
18 of these · baseline 19 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (3.3 pts) against in closer games (3.3), +0.0, t = 0.01, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.3
3.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.6
1.1
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.9
1.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
turnovers
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.7
6.1
+0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.8
4.3
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.2
5.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.4
2.8
+0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
0.9
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.9
2.7
+1.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.2
1.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.3
0.8
+0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.7
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.6
0.9
+0.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 172 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (3.3 pts) against other games (3.3), +0.1, t = 0.05, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.3
3.3
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.1
1.4
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.6
2.0
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.2
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.0
6.6
−0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.4
4.7
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.9
5.2
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.7
3.4
−0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.9
0.6
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
1.1
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.5
3.2
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.2
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
1.5
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.2
1.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 156 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (2.6 pts) against other games (3.6), -1.0, t = -0.94, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.6
3.6
−1.0
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.6
2.0
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.7
6.8
−1.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.1
4.8
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.2
5.6
−1.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.1
3.2
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.2
3.4
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.0
1.3
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.9
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.8
1.3
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.3
1.2
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 37 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.3
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2
ATL
HOME
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
ATL
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-24
CHI
HOME
14.0MIN
5POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
125.0
USG%
11.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
4.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
14.6MIN
6POINTS
0 · 3 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+16
PRA
9
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
13.3MIN
8POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
82.0
USG%
18.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-08-28
LAS
AWAY
7.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
5.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-08-27
PHO
AWAY
4.8MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
79.8
USG%
57.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
7.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
38.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
3
2026-08-23
POR
AWAY
7.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-21
MIN
HOME
9.0MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.0
USG%
29.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
5.1MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
85.2
USG%
23.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-08-15
LAS
HOME
8.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
32.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
3
2026-08-13
LVA
AWAY
4.4MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
21.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
5
2026-08-11
LVA
AWAY
5.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
3
2026-08-09
PHO
HOME
14.7MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.0
USG%
18.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
8
2026-08-07
ATL
HOME
5.8MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
79.8
USG%
13.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-08-05
DAL
HOME
3.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-07-31
DAL
HOME
2.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-07-28
CON
HOME
5.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-07-22
LVA
HOME
6.2MIN
3POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
19.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
5
2026-07-20
GSV
AWAY
9.3MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
10.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-07-18
GSV
AWAY
7.3MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
66.7
USG%
28.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
4
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
17.7MIN
5POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
51.2
USG%
16.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
10
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
13.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 5 · 0-6
BELOW
FG
0-6
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-07-12
SEA
HOME
17.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 4 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.0
USG%
15.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
10
2026-07-06
GSV
HOME
17.1MIN
1POINTS
4 · 3 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
12.9
USG%
17.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
8
2026-07-02
ATL
HOME
26.9MIN
13POINTS
6 · 7 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
2-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
73.2
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
+16
PRA
26
2026-06-28
POR
HOME
33.8MIN
8POINTS
3 · 4 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.8
USG%
13.2
STL
5
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
15
2026-06-24
MIN
HOME
2.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
22.3MIN
7POINTS
2 · 6 · 2-8
ABOVE
FG
2-8
3PT
2-4
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
35.9
USG%
26.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-12
PRA
15
2026-06-12
TOR
HOME
14.3MIN
2POINTS
3 · 4 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
25.8
USG%
19.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+15
PRA
9
2026-06-08
IND
HOME
9.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
20.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-7
BELOW
FG
1-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
12.7
USG%
26.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-29
PRA
4
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
19.5MIN
8POINTS
0 · 3 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-4
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
45.7
USG%
17.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-05-29
LAS
HOME
24.8MIN
5POINTS
1 · 7 · 1-9
ABOVE
FG
1-9
3PT
0-5
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
23.2
USG%
19.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2026-05-27
SEA
AWAY
22.7MIN
9POINTS
5 · 3 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
20.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+7
PRA
17
every game on file — nothing hidden