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Amy Okonkwo in blowouts

13 of 13 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
9 of these · baseline 4 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (8.6 pts) against in closer games (9.3), -0.7, t = -0.22, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 6.3). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.6
9.3
−0.7
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.6
2.0
+0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
1.0
−0.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.1
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.0
1.8
−0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
11.4
12.3
−0.8
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
11.1
11.3
−0.1
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
8.9
10.3
−1.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.9
3.0
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.0
2.0
−1.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.7
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
6.1
7.0
−0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.8
3.5
−0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
2.2
1.0
+1.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.9
1.0
+0.9
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.3
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
1.0
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.3
3.8
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 178 (this player's own top tercile)
5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (8.0 pts) against other games (9.3), -1.3, t = -0.42, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 5.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.0
9.3
−1.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.2
2.5
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
1.3
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.4
1.1
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.8
12.3
−1.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.2
11.8
−1.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
8.6
9.8
−1.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.8
3.0
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.6
1.1
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.6
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
6.2
6.5
−0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
3.0
3.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.2
2.3
−1.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.0
2.0
−1.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.0
0.8
+1.3
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
MEASURED
three-point attempts
3.4
3.5
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 168 (this player's own bottom tercile)
5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (7.4 pts) against other games (9.6), -2.2, t = -0.83, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 5.3).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.4
9.6
−2.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.2
2.5
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.8
−0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.6
1.5
−0.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
1.6
−1.0
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.8
12.9
−3.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.6
12.1
−2.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.6
10.4
−2.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.4
3.3
−0.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
1.8
−1.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
2.0
1.5
+0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.0
7.3
−2.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.0
3.6
−1.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
3.2
1.0
+2.2
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
2.8
0.9
+1.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.2
1.0
−0.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.0
1.4
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.6
4.0
−1.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 13 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 9.3
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
18.0MIN
9POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
64.3
USG%
21.9
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
11
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
10.5MIN
6POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-13
PRA
6
2026-08-28
ATL
AWAY
9.9MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
62.5
USG%
19.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
6
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
10.8MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
1-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
36.3
USG%
28.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-06-27
SEA
AWAY
1.3MIN
1POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
26.6
USG%
59.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
2
2025-09-11
PHO
HOME
25.5MIN
20POINTS
4 · 0 · 8-13
ABOVE
FG
8-13
3PT
4-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
76.9
USG%
20.8
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+30
PRA
24
2025-09-07
LAS
AWAY
18.6MIN
9POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
51.4
USG%
24.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
13
2025-09-04
GSV
AWAY
10.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
25.8
USG%
16.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
4
2025-09-01
MIN
AWAY
27.3MIN
12POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
63.0
USG%
18.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
17
2025-08-29
ATL
AWAY
24.6MIN
11POINTS
6 · 1 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
1-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
55.7
USG%
20.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-19
PRA
18
2025-08-27
CON
HOME
23.3MIN
14POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-10
ABOVE
FG
5-10
3PT
2-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
64.3
USG%
21.4
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
17
2025-08-24
GSV
HOME
17.4MIN
12POINTS
3 · 2 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
21.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
17
2025-08-22
SEA
HOME
9.4MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
68.0
USG%
32.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
9
every game on file — nothing hidden