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Angela Dugalic in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 20 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (2.6 pts) against in closer games (2.5), +0.0, t = 0.05, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.6
2.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.3
2.0
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.4
5.1
+0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.9
4.5
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.1
3.1
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.8
2.6
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.5
1.8
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.6
2.1
+0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.8
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.2
+0.6
gap is 2.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
fouls
0.7
1.1
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.9
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 175 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (2.7 pts) against other games (2.4), +0.3, t = 0.25, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.2).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.7
2.4
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
2.1
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.4
5.1
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.9
4.5
+0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.2
3.0
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.6
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.8
1.5
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.8
2.7
−0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.1
1.0
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.6
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.6
0.9
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 161 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (1.9 pts) against other games (2.9), -1.0, t = -1.16, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.9
2.9
−1.0
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.1
2.2
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.5
5.6
−1.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.9
5.0
−1.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.4
3.4
−1.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.6
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.4
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.6
2.2
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.7
1.2
−0.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.1
0.7
+0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.9
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.5
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2
ATL
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
42.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
ATL
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-24
CHI
HOME
4.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
1.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
29.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
3.5MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
24.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
5
2026-08-28
LAS
AWAY
3.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
1
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
1.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
0
2026-08-23
POR
AWAY
0.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
352.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-21
MIN
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
5.2MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
51.5
USG%
31.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
5
2026-08-13
LVA
AWAY
3.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-08-11
LVA
AWAY
1.1MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
80.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
6
2026-08-09
PHO
HOME
9.1MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-07-28
CON
HOME
4.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-07-22
LVA
HOME
5.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-07-18
GSV
AWAY
3.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
30.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
7.6MIN
2POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
34.7
USG%
21.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
6
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
3.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-07-12
SEA
HOME
2.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-07-06
GSV
HOME
9.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
1
2026-07-02
ATL
HOME
7.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
34.7
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
3
2026-06-28
POR
HOME
10.8MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.7
USG%
24.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-19
PRA
5
2026-06-26
CON
AWAY
8.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
5
2026-06-24
MIN
HOME
8.1MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
85.2
USG%
9.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+12
PRA
4
2026-06-21
MIN
AWAY
15.3MIN
6POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
60.0
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
12
2026-06-19
NYL
AWAY
7.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-06-17
CON
AWAY
26.9MIN
6POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
42.9
USG%
12.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
25.6MIN
4POINTS
6 · 0 · 2-11
ABOVE
FG
2-11
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
18.2
USG%
26.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
5
+/−
-14
PRA
10
2026-06-12
TOR
HOME
17.5MIN
10POINTS
6 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
64.4
USG%
20.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
16
2026-06-08
IND
HOME
17.7MIN
7POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
59.5
USG%
21.3
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-3
PRA
13
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
14.4MIN
5POINTS
9 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/8
TS%
83.3
USG%
12.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
15
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
13.2MIN
8POINTS
7 · 1 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
45.0
USG%
29.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
16
2026-05-29
LAS
HOME
17.2MIN
6POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
100.0
USG%
10.5
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-12
PRA
12
2026-05-27
SEA
AWAY
16.1MIN
2POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
16.7
USG%
20.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
7
2026-05-24
SEA
AWAY
11.9MIN
13POINTS
3 · 1 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
1-1
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
88.8
USG%
28.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
17
2026-05-18
DAL
AWAY
12.9MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
8.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
6
2026-05-15
IND
AWAY
6.4MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
3
2026-05-10
NYL
HOME
10.4MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
51.2
USG%
20.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
7
2026-05-08
TOR
AWAY
12.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
17.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden