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Anneli Maley in blowouts

16 of 16 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
9 of these · baseline 7 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (1.6 pts) against in closer games (0.3), +1.3, t = 1.52, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.6). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.6
0.3
+1.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.3
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.7
−0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.1
1.0
−0.9
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.1
2.1
+1.0
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.9
1.4
+1.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
1.8
1.0
+0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.6
1.9
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
1.1
−0.9
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.7
0.9
+0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.0
+0.7
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
free throws made
0.6
0.0
+0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.1
1.6
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.9
0.1
+0.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 174 (this player's own top tercile)
6 of these · baseline 10 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.2 pts) against other games (0.9), +0.3, t = 0.26, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.2
0.9
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.1
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.2
2.4
+0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.7
2.0
+0.7
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.7
1.3
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.0
1.5
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.5
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.5
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 157 (this player's own bottom tercile)
6 of these · baseline 10 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.3 pts) against other games (0.8), +0.5, t = 0.48, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.2).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.3
0.8
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.7
1.6
−0.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.5
2.8
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.0
2.4
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.8
1.2
+0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.2
2.0
−0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.3
1.0
−0.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.3
1.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
1.5
−0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 16 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 0.3
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
MIN
AWAY
2.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-09-23
ATL
HOME
5.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
8.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-09-20
TOR
AWAY
7.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+13
PRA
3
2026-08-29
CHI
HOME
4.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
27.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-08-18
CHI
AWAY
4.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-08-15
CON
AWAY
7.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-07-18
IND
AWAY
13.6MIN
5POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
1-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
42.5
USG%
18.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
8
2026-07-12
TOR
AWAY
11.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
3.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+18
PRA
0
2026-05-25
POR
HOME
11.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-05-24
DAL
HOME
11.1MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
3
2026-05-10
GSV
AWAY
0.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-05-09
LVA
AWAY
5.8MIN
1POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
ABOVE
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
17.4
USG%
21.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2022-05-18
SEA
AWAY
9.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
1
2022-05-14
MIN
AWAY
2.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
2
2022-05-11
NYL
HOME
14.1MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
8
2022-05-06
LAS
HOME
18.8MIN
2POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
7.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
7
every game on file — nothing hidden