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Antonia Delaere in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

THU · OCT 1
NYL @ MIN7:00 PM ETbench · 3 projected minutes
OutAnastasiia Olairi KosuRight Foot· report Tue Sep 29
GAMES SHE PLAYED 10+ MIN · 202622 games · 16.0 min · 4.4 points

Tonight's projection is 3 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

WITHOUT KOSU11 games · 8.8 min · 2.5 pointswith her (29 games): 12.5 min · 3.1 pointswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
19 of these · baseline 21 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (2.9 pts) against in closer games (2.9), +0.0, t = 0.04, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.9
2.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.1
0.6
+0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.6
0.5
+1.1
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
threes
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.6
4.0
+1.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.0
3.5
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.6
3.4
+1.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.7
1.1
+1.6
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.4
+0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
2.8
1.9
+1.0
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.1
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.0
1.2
+0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 181 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (4.1 pts) against other games (2.3), +1.9, t = 1.41, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.1
2.3
+1.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.9
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.6
0.7
+0.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.1
0.4
+0.8
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
steals
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.6
−0.4
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
6.7
3.7
+3.0
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
5.1
3.0
+2.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.8
3.0
+2.8
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.6
1.5
+1.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.0
2.0
+1.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.4
0.9
+0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.4
1.1
+1.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
MEASURED
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)MEASURED

low-scoring games (1.2 pts) against other games (3.8), -2.6, t = -2.48, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.2
3.8
−2.6
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
MEASURED
rebounds
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
1.4
−1.0
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
threes
0.2
0.9
−0.7
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
steals
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.4
6.0
−3.6
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
MEASURED
pts+reb
2.0
4.7
−2.7
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
MEASURED
pts+ast
1.6
5.2
−3.6
gap is 3.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
MEASURED
reb+ast
1.2
2.2
−1.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.6
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.6
2.7
−1.2
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.5
1.3
−0.8
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
free throw attempts
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
free throws made
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.9
1.1
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.9
2.0
−1.1
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.9
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
NYL
HOME
2.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-09-24
IND
HOME
19.2MIN
2POINTS
5 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
25.0
USG%
11.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
8
2026-09-22
IND
AWAY
15.9MIN
8POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
90.1
USG%
22.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
9
2026-08-24
GSV
HOME
7.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-08-21
WAS
AWAY
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-12
POR
AWAY
8.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
3
2026-08-09
DAL
HOME
7.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
18.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+8
PRA
0
2026-08-08
LVA
HOME
4.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2026-08-06
LAS
HOME
6.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2026-08-02
IND
HOME
8.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2026-07-30
TOR
AWAY
15.5MIN
7POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
58.3
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
12
2026-07-28
TOR
HOME
9.3MIN
12POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
4-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
120.0
USG%
23.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
13
2026-07-22
SEA
AWAY
3.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-07-20
SEA
AWAY
5.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
2
2026-07-18
POR
HOME
10.3MIN
5POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
86.8
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
9
2026-07-15
LAS
HOME
14.1MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
83.3
USG%
9.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+12
PRA
6
2026-07-13
PHO
HOME
10.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-11
NYL
HOME
7.0MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
87.2
USG%
21.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
8
2026-07-08
CON
AWAY
23.0MIN
10POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
71.4
USG%
20.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+7
PRA
10
2026-07-06
CON
HOME
24.6MIN
8POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
7.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
10
2026-07-03
NYL
AWAY
13.4MIN
6POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
2-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
42.9
USG%
21.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
10
2026-06-28
DAL
AWAY
1.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
28.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-06-24
WAS
AWAY
8.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
0
2026-06-21
WAS
HOME
7.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-06-19
GSV
AWAY
7.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
0
2026-06-17
LAS
AWAY
15.2MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
10.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
7
2026-06-15
POR
HOME
28.6MIN
6POINTS
1 · 7 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
8.4
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+26
PRA
14
2026-06-13
LVA
AWAY
13.4MIN
3POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
150.0
USG%
6.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
7
2026-06-09
DAL
HOME
13.6MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
6.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+12
PRA
5
2026-06-06
SEA
HOME
13.8MIN
0POINTS
3 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
5
2026-06-04
GSV
HOME
13.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
0
2026-06-01
PHO
AWAY
24.1MIN
13POINTS
2 · 6 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
3-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
94.5
USG%
13.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+23
PRA
21
2026-05-29
CHI
AWAY
11.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
3.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
1
2026-05-27
ATL
HOME
6.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-05-23
CHI
AWAY
11.1MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-05-21
TOR
HOME
18.0MIN
3POINTS
1 · 4 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
9.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+10
PRA
8
2026-05-17
CHI
HOME
5.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
1
2026-05-14
DAL
AWAY
12.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
3.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
2
2026-05-12
PHO
AWAY
18.5MIN
8POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
1-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
90.1
USG%
10.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
9
2026-05-09
ATL
HOME
13.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
9.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
3
every game on file — nothing hidden