Ariel Atkins over 11.5 points
She has cleared 11.5 in 96 of 183 games — 52.5%. That rate needs -111 to break even and books have been paying +105.
01
Distribution
183 games · hover a bucket0–5 points · 14 games · 7.7% · under14
5–10 points · 49 games · 26.8% · under49
10–15 points · 57 games · 31.1% · under57
15–20 points · 39 games · 21.3% · over39
20–25 points · 13 games · 7.1% · over13
25–30 points · 9 games · 4.9% · over9
30–35 points · 1 game · 0.5% · over1
35–40 points · 1 game · 0.5% · over1
11.5
UNDER · 87OVER · 96 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 11.5 · hover a bar2026-06-17 · MIN · 4 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-06-21 · NYL · 10 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-06-25 · TOR · 0 points · −11.5 vs line
2026-06-27 · IND · 12 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-07-06 · SEA · 5 points · −6.5 vs line
2026-07-08 · IND · 12 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-07-10 · CHI · 17 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-07-13 · ATL · 13 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-07-15 · MIN · 8 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-07-17 · CHI · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-07-19 · DAL · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-07-22 · PHO · 15 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · NYL · 16 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-08-02 · POR · 12 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-08-05 · CHI · 8 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · MIN · 7 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-08-09 · GSV · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-11 · PHO · 5 points · −6.5 vs line
2026-08-13 · NYL · 3 points · −8.5 vs line
2026-08-15 · WAS · 1 points · −10.5 vs line
2026-08-18 · CON · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-20 · ATL · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-22 · CON · 6 points · −5.5 vs line
2026-08-24 · ATL · 10 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-08-28 · WAS · 4 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-08-30 · SEA · 4 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-09-17 · DAL · 4 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · POR · 14 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · LVA · 9 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-09-24 · GSV · 7 points · −4.5 vs line
11.5
2026-06-17— 5-game mean2026-09-24 · newest
03
Recent form
10.0%1/10 · last 10
2026-08-18 · 9 points · UNDER
9
2026-08-20 · 9 points · UNDER
9
2026-08-22 · 6 points · UNDER
6
2026-08-24 · 10 points · UNDER
10
2026-08-28 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-08-30 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-17 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-09-20 · 14 points · OVER
14
2026-09-22 · 9 points · UNDER
9
2026-09-24 · 7 points · UNDER
7
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 2 postings11.5+105
best offered11.5+105
worst offered11.5+105
our break-even11.5-111
Median +105 across 2 postings over 1 games. That price clears what her rate needs.
05
Game log
25 of 183 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 11.5
2026-09-24GSVHOME28.3MIN7POINTS1 · 4 · 3-9UNDER
- FG
- 3-9
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 38.9
- USG%
- 14.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 12
2026-09-22LVAAWAY22.9MIN9POINTS2 · 1 · 4-8UNDER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 56.3
- USG%
- 16.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -9
- PRA
- 12
2026-09-20PORHOME20.5MIN14POINTS5 · 2 · 5-7OVER
- FG
- 5-7
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 1/4
- TS%
- 84.1
- USG%
- 20.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +20
- PRA
- 21
2026-09-17DALAWAY22.8MIN4POINTS3 · 1 · 1-3UNDER
- FG
- 1-3
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 51.5
- USG%
- 8.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -15
- PRA
- 8
2026-08-30SEAAWAY16.9MIN4POINTS2 · 2 · 2-4UNDER
- FG
- 2-4
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 9.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +15
- PRA
- 8
2026-08-28WASHOME27.2MIN4POINTS3 · 3 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 9.3
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +10
- PRA
- 10
2026-08-24ATLHOME32.9MIN10POINTS1 · 6 · 3-9UNDER
- FG
- 3-9
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 50.6
- USG%
- 14.0
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 17
2026-08-22CONHOME24.7MIN6POINTS7 · 3 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 51.0
- USG%
- 13.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 16
2026-08-20ATLHOME15.9MIN9POINTS0 · 1 · 3-7UNDER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 57.1
- USG%
- 24.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 10
2026-08-18CONAWAY26.0MIN9POINTS2 · 2 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 66.6
- USG%
- 13.2
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -14
- PRA
- 13
2026-08-15WASAWAY29.7MIN1POINTS2 · 3 · 0-7UNDER
- FG
- 0-7
- 3PT
- 0-7
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 6.3
- USG%
- 16.2
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 6
2026-08-13NYLAWAY28.2MIN3POINTS4 · 2 · 1-5UNDER
- FG
- 1-5
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 30.0
- USG%
- 11.3
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -20
- PRA
- 9
2026-08-11PHOHOME31.9MIN5POINTS4 · 2 · 2-7UNDER
- FG
- 2-7
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 0-2
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 31.7
- USG%
- 9.8
- STL
- 4
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 11
2026-08-09GSVHOME30.1MIN9POINTS4 · 4 · 3-5UNDER
- FG
- 3-5
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 82.7
- USG%
- 8.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 17
2026-08-06MINAWAY28.8MIN7POINTS2 · 6 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 59.5
- USG%
- 12.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 15
2026-08-05CHIAWAY20.9MIN8POINTS1 · 3 · 3-10UNDER
- FG
- 3-10
- 3PT
- 2-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 12
2026-08-02PORAWAY30.6MIN12POINTS3 · 6 · 4-9OVER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 4-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 66.7
- USG%
- 13.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +9
- PRA
- 21
2026-07-28NYLHOME34.2MIN16POINTS5 · 5 · 6-8OVER
- FG
- 6-8
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/4
- TS%
- 90.1
- USG%
- 16.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 26
2026-07-22PHOHOME33.1MIN15POINTS4 · 3 · 5-9OVER
- FG
- 5-9
- 3PT
- 3-6
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 3/1
- TS%
- 75.9
- USG%
- 13.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 22
2026-07-19DALAWAY31.5MIN9POINTS2 · 3 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 50.7
- USG%
- 14.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 14
2026-07-17CHIAWAY34.0MIN9POINTS4 · 3 · 3-11UNDER
- FG
- 3-11
- 3PT
- 1-6
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 37.9
- USG%
- 19.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -1
- PRA
- 16
2026-07-15MINAWAY34.6MIN8POINTS2 · 6 · 3-11UNDER
- FG
- 3-11
- 3PT
- 2-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 36.4
- USG%
- 16.6
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -2
- PRA
- 16
2026-07-13ATLAWAY33.6MIN13POINTS3 · 2 · 5-11OVER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 52.8
- USG%
- 18.5
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 18
2026-07-10CHIHOME28.7MIN17POINTS3 · 6 · 7-13OVER
- FG
- 7-13
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 63.2
- USG%
- 21.5
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +24
- PRA
- 26
2026-07-08INDHOME30.7MIN12POINTS3 · 1 · 4-10OVER
- FG
- 4-10
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 55.1
- USG%
- 17.0
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 16
showing 25 of 183 — every rate above is computed over all 183