Ariel Atkins over 8.5 points

She has cleared 8.5 in 134 of 183 games — 73.2%. That rate needs -274 to break even and books have been paying -115.

Distribution

183 games · hover a bucket

0–5 points · 14 games · 7.7% · under14

5–10 points · 49 games · 26.8% · under49

10–15 points · 57 games · 31.1% · over57

15–20 points · 39 games · 21.3% · over39

20–25 points · 13 games · 7.1% · over13

25–30 points · 9 games · 4.9% · over9

30–35 points · 1 game · 0.5% · over1

35–40 points · 1 game · 0.5% · over1

8.5

UNDER · 49OVER · 134 · filled bars clear the line

Recent games

points · line 8.5 · hover a bar

2026-06-17 · MIN · 4 points · −4.5 vs line

2026-06-21 · NYL · 10 points · +1.5 vs line

2026-06-25 · TOR · 0 points · −8.5 vs line

2026-06-27 · IND · 12 points · +3.5 vs line

2026-07-06 · SEA · 5 points · −3.5 vs line

2026-07-08 · IND · 12 points · +3.5 vs line

2026-07-10 · CHI · 17 points · +8.5 vs line

2026-07-13 · ATL · 13 points · +4.5 vs line

2026-07-15 · MIN · 8 points · −0.5 vs line

2026-07-17 · CHI · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-07-19 · DAL · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-07-22 · PHO · 15 points · +6.5 vs line

2026-07-28 · NYL · 16 points · +7.5 vs line

2026-08-02 · POR · 12 points · +3.5 vs line

2026-08-05 · CHI · 8 points · −0.5 vs line

2026-08-06 · MIN · 7 points · −1.5 vs line

2026-08-09 · GSV · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-08-11 · PHO · 5 points · −3.5 vs line

2026-08-13 · NYL · 3 points · −5.5 vs line

2026-08-15 · WAS · 1 points · −7.5 vs line

2026-08-18 · CON · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-08-20 · ATL · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-08-22 · CON · 6 points · −2.5 vs line

2026-08-24 · ATL · 10 points · +1.5 vs line

2026-08-28 · WAS · 4 points · −4.5 vs line

2026-08-30 · SEA · 4 points · −4.5 vs line

2026-09-17 · DAL · 4 points · −4.5 vs line

2026-09-20 · POR · 14 points · +5.5 vs line

2026-09-22 · LVA · 9 points · +0.5 vs line

2026-09-24 · GSV · 7 points · −1.5 vs line

8.5

2026-06-17— 5-game mean2026-09-24 · newest

Recent form

50.0%5/10 · last 10

2026-08-18 · 9 points · OVER

2026-08-20 · 9 points · OVER

2026-08-22 · 6 points · UNDER

2026-08-24 · 10 points · OVER

2026-08-28 · 4 points · UNDER

2026-08-30 · 4 points · UNDER

2026-09-17 · 4 points · UNDER

2026-09-20 · 14 points · OVER

2026-09-22 · 9 points · OVER

2026-09-24 · 7 points · UNDER

A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.

Market history

median · 10 postings8.5-115

best offered8.5-115

worst offered8.5-123

our break-even8.5-274

Median -115 across 10 postings over 3 games. That price clears what her rate needs.

Game log

25 of 183 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 8.5

2026-09-24

GSV

HOME

28.3MIN

7POINTS

1 · 4 · 3-9

UNDER

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 38.9
USG%: 14.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: 0
PRA: 12

2026-09-22

LVA

AWAY

22.9MIN

9POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-8

OVER

FG: 4-8
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 16.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: -9
PRA: 12

2026-09-20

POR

HOME

20.5MIN

14POINTS

5 · 2 · 5-7

OVER

FG: 5-7
3PT: 1-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 84.1
USG%: 20.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +20
PRA: 21

2026-09-17

DAL

AWAY

22.8MIN

4POINTS

3 · 1 · 1-3

UNDER

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 51.5
USG%: 8.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -15
PRA: 8

2026-08-30

SEA

AWAY

16.9MIN

4POINTS

2 · 2 · 2-4

UNDER

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 9.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +15
PRA: 8

2026-08-28

WAS

HOME

27.2MIN

4POINTS

3 · 3 · 2-5

UNDER

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 9.3
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: +10
PRA: 10

2026-08-24

ATL

HOME

32.9MIN

10POINTS

1 · 6 · 3-9

OVER

FG: 3-9
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 14.0
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +7
PRA: 17

2026-08-22

CON

HOME

24.7MIN

6POINTS

7 · 3 · 2-5

UNDER

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 51.0
USG%: 13.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 16

2026-08-20

ATL

HOME

15.9MIN

9POINTS

0 · 1 · 3-7

OVER

FG: 3-7
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 24.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -12
PRA: 10

2026-08-18

CON

AWAY

26.0MIN

9POINTS

2 · 2 · 2-5

OVER

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 13.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -14
PRA: 13

2026-08-15

WAS

AWAY

29.7MIN

1POINTS

2 · 3 · 0-7

UNDER

FG: 0-7
3PT: 0-7
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 6.3
USG%: 16.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 6

2026-08-13

NYL

AWAY

28.2MIN

3POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-5

UNDER

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 11.3
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -20
PRA: 9

2026-08-11

PHO

HOME

31.9MIN

5POINTS

4 · 2 · 2-7

UNDER

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 31.7
USG%: 9.8
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: -13
PRA: 11

2026-08-09

GSV

HOME

30.1MIN

9POINTS

4 · 4 · 3-5

OVER

FG: 3-5
3PT: 2-4
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 82.7
USG%: 8.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -3
PRA: 17

2026-08-06

MIN

AWAY

28.8MIN

7POINTS

2 · 6 · 2-5

UNDER

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 12.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: 0
PRA: 15

2026-08-05

CHI

AWAY

20.9MIN

8POINTS

1 · 3 · 3-10

UNDER

FG: 3-10
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 21.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 12

2026-08-02

POR

AWAY

30.6MIN

12POINTS

3 · 6 · 4-9

OVER

FG: 4-9
3PT: 4-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 13.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +9
PRA: 21

2026-07-28

NYL

HOME

34.2MIN

16POINTS

5 · 5 · 6-8

OVER

FG: 6-8
3PT: 2-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 90.1
USG%: 16.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: -4
PRA: 26

2026-07-22

PHO

HOME

33.1MIN

15POINTS

4 · 3 · 5-9

OVER

FG: 5-9
3PT: 3-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 75.9
USG%: 13.5
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +5
PRA: 22

2026-07-19

DAL

AWAY

31.5MIN

9POINTS

2 · 3 · 3-8

OVER

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 50.7
USG%: 14.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 14

2026-07-17

CHI

AWAY

34.0MIN

9POINTS

4 · 3 · 3-11

OVER

FG: 3-11
3PT: 1-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 37.9
USG%: 19.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 16

2026-07-15

MIN

AWAY

34.6MIN

8POINTS

2 · 6 · 3-11

UNDER

FG: 3-11
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 36.4
USG%: 16.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 16

2026-07-13

ATL

AWAY

33.6MIN

13POINTS

3 · 2 · 5-11

OVER

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 52.8
USG%: 18.5
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -10
PRA: 18

2026-07-10

CHI

HOME

28.7MIN

17POINTS

3 · 6 · 7-13

OVER

FG: 7-13
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 63.2
USG%: 21.5
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +24
PRA: 26

2026-07-08

IND

HOME

30.7MIN

12POINTS

3 · 1 · 4-10

OVER

FG: 4-10
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 55.1
USG%: 17.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +7
PRA: 16

showing 25 of 183 — every rate above is computed over all 183