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Ashlon Jackson in blowouts

19 of 19 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
13 of these · baseline 6 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (3.9 pts) against in closer games (2.2), +1.8, t = 1.05, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.3). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.9
2.2
+1.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.2
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.1
0.2
+0.9
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
steals
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.2
4.0
+2.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.2
3.5
+1.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.9
2.7
+2.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.2
1.8
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
1.3
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.8
2.7
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.8
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.1
1.5
+1.6
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
MEASURED
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 167 (this player's own top tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (6.1 pts) against other games (1.8), +4.4, t = 1.93, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.1
1.8
+4.4
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.7
1.6
−0.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.7
0.3
+1.5
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
MEASURED
steals
0.1
0.7
−0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
7.6
4.3
+3.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.9
3.3
+3.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
6.9
2.7
+4.2
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.4
2.5
−1.1
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.7
1.4
−0.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
4.9
2.7
+2.2
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.1
0.8
+1.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.6
0.0
+0.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.9
1.8
+2.0
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 153 (this player's own bottom tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)MEASURED

low-scoring games (0.9 pts) against other games (4.8), -4.0, t = -2.54, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.9
4.8
−4.0
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
MEASURED
rebounds
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.1
0.7
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.0
1.3
−1.3
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
steals
0.9
0.3
+0.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.3
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.7
6.5
−2.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
2.6
5.8
−3.3
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.0
5.5
−3.5
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
MEASURED
reb+ast
2.9
1.7
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.6
0.9
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.6
4.0
−1.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.4
1.8
−1.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
MEASURED
free throw attempts
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.6
3.2
−1.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 19 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.2
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
26.2MIN
18POINTS
1 · 2 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
5-9
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.8
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+12
PRA
21
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
15.4MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
4
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
17.2MIN
6POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
13.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
9
2026-09-17
ATL
AWAY
31.4MIN
9POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
90.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-32
PRA
16
2026-08-30
DAL
AWAY
13.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-15
PRA
0
2026-08-28
IND
AWAY
10.3MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
3
2026-08-26
GSV
HOME
18.7MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-10
ABOVE
FG
2-10
3PT
0-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
20.0
USG%
23.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-08-25
CHI
HOME
12.4MIN
5POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
62.5
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
13.0MIN
2POINTS
5 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
33.3
USG%
13.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
8
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
18.2MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
5
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
5.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
24.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
5.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-13
PRA
0
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
11.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2026-06-26
WAS
HOME
5.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
0
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
0.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
60.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-05-27
POR
AWAY
17.5MIN
0POINTS
2 · 3 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-05-25
GSV
AWAY
14.3MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
77.3
USG%
12.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-05-22
SEA
AWAY
9.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-15
PRA
1
2026-05-20
SEA
AWAY
15.3MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
8.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
6
every game on file — nothing hidden