DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Awa Fam in blowouts

37 of 37 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
21 of these · baseline 16DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (9.2 pts) against in closer games (11.7), -2.5, t = -1.31, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
9.2
11.7
−2.5
t −1.31 · resolves ±3.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
5.9
6.1
−0.2
t −0.22 · resolves ±1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.5
2.1
−0.6
t −1.32 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.2
1.9
−0.7
t −1.65 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.8
0.9
−0.1
t −0.30 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.5
1.1
−0.5
t −1.86 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.7
1.6
+0.2
t +0.39 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
16.6
19.9
−3.3
t −1.44 · resolves ±4.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
15.0
17.8
−2.7
t −1.23 · resolves ±4.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
10.7
13.8
−3.1
t −1.58 · resolves ±3.8
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
7.4
8.2
−0.8
t −0.70 · resolves ±2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.3
1.9
−0.7
t −1.48 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 185 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (12.1 pts) against other games (9.3), +2.8, t = 1.29, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
12.1
9.3
+2.8
t +1.29 · resolves ±4.2
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
5.7
6.1
−0.4
t −0.36 · resolves ±2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.0
1.7
+0.3
t +0.69 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
2.0
1.3
+0.8
t +1.43 · resolves ±1.0
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.5
1.0
−0.4
t −1.23 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
1.1
0.6
+0.5
t +1.68 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.7
1.6
+0.1
t +0.16 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
19.8
17.0
+2.7
t +1.05 · resolves ±5.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
17.8
15.4
+2.4
t +0.96 · resolves ±4.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
14.1
11.0
+3.1
t +1.41 · resolves ±4.3
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
7.7
7.8
−0.1
t −0.04 · resolves ±2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.6
1.5
+0.1
t +0.18 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 163 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (8.8 pts) against other games (11.1), -2.3, t = -1.28, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.8
11.1
−2.3
t −1.28 · resolves ±3.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
6.2
5.8
+0.4
t +0.52 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.6
1.9
−0.3
t −0.59 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.1
1.8
−0.7
t −1.69 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals
1.3
0.5
+0.8
t +1.64 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.8
0.7
+0.1
t +0.45 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.8
1.6
+0.2
t +0.40 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
16.6
18.8
−2.1
t −1.03 · resolves ±4.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
15.0
16.9
−1.9
t −0.95 · resolves ±3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
10.4
13.0
−2.6
t −1.35 · resolves ±3.7
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
7.8
7.7
+0.2
t +0.18 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
2.2
1.3
+0.9
t +1.67 · resolves ±1.1
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 37 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 11.7
2026-09-23
DAL
HOME
35.0MIN
22POINTS
7 · 0 · 8-13
ABOVE
FG
8-13
3PT
4-7
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
79.3
USG%
17.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
29
2026-09-20
LVA
AWAY
23.2MIN
6POINTS
6 · 3 · 3-14
BELOW
FG
3-14
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
21.4
USG%
28.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-26
PRA
15
2026-09-19
GSV
AWAY
29.2MIN
8POINTS
9 · 2 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
2-6
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/8
TS%
45.0
USG%
22.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
5
+/−
-5
PRA
19
2026-09-17
LVA
HOME
25.9MIN
5POINTS
9 · 2 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/6
TS%
41.7
USG%
11.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-21
PRA
16
2026-08-26
TOR
HOME
16.8MIN
10POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-7
BELOW
FG
3-7
3PT
2-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
63.5
USG%
19.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+11
PRA
13
2026-08-23
DAL
AWAY
25.4MIN
0POINTS
6 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
6
2026-08-16
CHI
HOME
29.2MIN
14POINTS
5 · 2 · 5-10
ABOVE
FG
5-10
3PT
2-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
64.3
USG%
15.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+8
PRA
21
2026-08-14
POR
HOME
22.2MIN
20POINTS
9 · 0 · 7-12
ABOVE
FG
7-12
3PT
4-8
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/6
TS%
77.6
USG%
25.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
29
2026-08-10
CHI
HOME
13.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-08-08
POR
AWAY
16.7MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
13.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-08-05
NYL
AWAY
22.7MIN
13POINTS
5 · 3 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
59.1
USG%
22.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
21
2026-08-03
NYL
AWAY
19.8MIN
4POINTS
9 · 1 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
1-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
5/4
TS%
22.5
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+6
PRA
14
2026-07-31
ATL
AWAY
29.1MIN
8POINTS
9 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
3/6
TS%
69.4
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-10
PRA
18
2026-07-28
IND
HOME
34.2MIN
11POINTS
5 · 2 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
1-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
4/1
TS%
39.6
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-7
PRA
18
2026-07-22
MIN
HOME
30.9MIN
10POINTS
10 · 1 · 4-9
BELOW
FG
4-9
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/7
TS%
55.6
USG%
13.1
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
21
2026-07-20
MIN
HOME
30.8MIN
8POINTS
11 · 4 · 4-9
BELOW
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
6/5
TS%
44.4
USG%
15.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
23
2026-07-17
IND
AWAY
31.2MIN
16POINTS
9 · 4 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
4-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/6
TS%
116.3
USG%
8.7
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+4
PRA
29
2026-07-15
CHI
AWAY
31.0MIN
14POINTS
7 · 3 · 6-15
ABOVE
FG
6-15
3PT
2-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
46.7
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
24
2026-07-12
WAS
AWAY
32.1MIN
5POINTS
9 · 2 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
1-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/6
TS%
27.8
USG%
15.4
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
16
2026-07-09
ATL
AWAY
29.8MIN
4POINTS
5 · 4 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
25.0
USG%
11.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
13
2026-07-06
LAS
AWAY
25.3MIN
7POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
38.9
USG%
17.2
STL
4
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+16
PRA
14
2026-07-04
POR
HOME
34.1MIN
12POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-15
ABOVE
FG
4-15
3PT
2-8
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
37.8
USG%
22.6
STL
4
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
16
2026-07-02
PHO
AWAY
26.9MIN
13POINTS
6 · 3 · 6-8
ABOVE
FG
6-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
81.3
USG%
16.6
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
22
2026-06-27
ATL
HOME
27.9MIN
21POINTS
1 · 1 · 8-9
ABOVE
FG
8-9
3PT
5-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
116.7
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
+15
PRA
23
2026-06-25
NYL
HOME
33.0MIN
15POINTS
6 · 2 · 6-9
ABOVE
FG
6-9
3PT
2-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
79.4
USG%
15.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+16
PRA
23
2026-06-22
DAL
HOME
38.8MIN
18POINTS
6 · 4 · 6-8
ABOVE
FG
6-8
3PT
4-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
101.4
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
3
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
28
2026-06-20
PHO
AWAY
30.3MIN
5POINTS
10 · 3 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
4/6
TS%
35.7
USG%
13.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
18
2026-06-17
POR
AWAY
29.5MIN
18POINTS
5 · 1 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
3-5
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
79.5
USG%
19.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-14
PRA
24
2026-06-12
GSV
HOME
34.7MIN
8POINTS
6 · 1 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
2-5
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
40.5
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2026-06-10
LAS
HOME
30.0MIN
12POINTS
6 · 4 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
2-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
87.2
USG%
15.3
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
22
2026-06-08
LVA
AWAY
29.4MIN
16POINTS
3 · 1 · 7-11
ABOVE
FG
7-11
3PT
1-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
69.9
USG%
21.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-13
PRA
20
2026-06-06
MIN
AWAY
30.2MIN
5POINTS
4 · 4 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
41.7
USG%
14.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-15
PRA
13
2026-06-03
PHO
HOME
32.7MIN
18POINTS
6 · 2 · 9-17
ABOVE
FG
9-17
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
52.9
USG%
26.1
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
26
2026-06-01
DAL
AWAY
31.4MIN
8POINTS
7 · 1 · 4-10
BELOW
FG
4-10
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
40.0
USG%
17.9
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-17
PRA
16
2026-05-30
TOR
AWAY
23.7MIN
7POINTS
5 · 0 · 3-10
BELOW
FG
3-10
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
33.5
USG%
23.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-20
PRA
12
2026-05-27
WAS
HOME
17.3MIN
6POINTS
5 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
4/1
TS%
44.4
USG%
21.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-05-24
WAS
HOME
20.5MIN
10POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
63.5
USG%
21.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+6
PRA
12
every game on file — nothing hidden