Bree Hall in blowouts
13 of 13 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE
margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.
01
games decided by 10+
|final margin| >= 1013 of these · baseline 0 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE
13 game(s) in the bucket against 0 outside — too few on one side to compare
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT
A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season
project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED
A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season
project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.
02
high-scoring games
combined score >= 162 (this player's own top tercile)5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE
high-scoring games (2.0 pts) against other games (1.9), +0.1, t = 0.09, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).
STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.0
1.9
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
2.6
3.1
−0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.6
3.0
−0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.0
2.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.6
1.3
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.6
1.5
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
1.3
−0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.0
0.5
−0.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03
low-scoring games
combined score <= 152 (this player's own bottom tercile)5 of these · baseline 8 (other games)DIRECTIONAL
low-scoring games (3.0 pts) against other games (1.3), +1.8, t = 1.07, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.2).
STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.0
1.3
+1.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.4
0.6
+0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.6
1.9
+2.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
4.4
1.9
+2.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
3.2
1.3
+2.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.6
0.6
+1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.2
0.5
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.8
1.4
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
2.0
0.3
+1.8
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
MEASURED
free throws made
0.8
0.0
+0.8
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
04
Game log
all 13 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 0.0
2026-09-24MINAWAY13.5MIN8POINTS5 · 1 · 3-6ABOVE
- FG
- 3-6
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 1-3
- OREB/DREB
- 1/4
- TS%
- 54.6
- USG%
- 22.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-28CONHOME1.7MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 22.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 0
2026-08-23CHIAWAY1.1MIN3POINTS0 · 0 · 1-1ABOVE
- FG
- 1-1
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 150.0
- USG%
- 39.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 3
2026-07-08LASAWAY1.0MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 0
2026-06-27LASHOME9.7MIN5POINTS1 · 0 · 2-5ABOVE
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 22.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 6
2025-09-23PLAYOFF R2 G2LVAAWAY3.7MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 1
2025-09-21PLAYOFF R2 G1LVAAWAY1.3MIN2POINTS2 · 0 · 1-2ABOVE
- FG
- 1-2
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 72.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 4
2025-09-16PLAYOFF R1 G2ATLHOME1.5MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -1
- PRA
- 0
2025-09-14PLAYOFF R1 G1ATLAWAY1.6MIN4POINTS0 · 0 · 1-1ABOVE
- FG
- 1-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 2-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 72.5
- USG%
- 78.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 4
2025-09-07WASAWAY5.0MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-2BELOW
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 19.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 1
2025-08-30WASHOME4.7MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-1BELOW
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 20.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 0
2025-06-29SEAHOME4.8MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 19.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 1
2025-06-22CONHOME2.9MIN3POINTS1 · 0 · 1-2ABOVE
- FG
- 1-2
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 45.2
- USG%
- 45.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 4
every game on file — nothing hidden