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Cassandre Prosper in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 20 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (2.5 pts) against in closer games (2.0), +0.5, t = 0.50, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.5
2.0
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.2
3.5
+0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.4
3.2
+0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.2
2.3
+0.9
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.7
1.5
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.7
2.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.1
+0.4
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
2.1
−0.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.3
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 172 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (2.1 pts) against other games (2.3), -0.2, t = -0.26, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
2.3
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.9
1.2
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.4
4.0
−0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.9
3.5
−0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.5
2.9
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.3
1.7
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.1
0.4
−0.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.0
2.5
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.1
0.8
−0.7
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
free throws made
0.1
0.4
−0.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.8
−0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.9
1.5
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.1
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 159 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (2.0 pts) against other games (2.3), -0.3, t = -0.38, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.0
2.3
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.1
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.6
3.9
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.1
3.4
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.5
2.9
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.6
1.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.9
2.6
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.9
1.5
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.3
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.0
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2
ATL
HOME
21.2MIN
10POINTS
4 · 3 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-4
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
74.0
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-1
PRA
17
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
ATL
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
37.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
76.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
1.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
29.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
12.3MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
55.1
USG%
22.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
8
2026-08-28
LAS
AWAY
2.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
43.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
3.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
1
2026-08-23
POR
AWAY
0.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-21
MIN
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-08-15
LAS
HOME
12.6MIN
4POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
10.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+11
PRA
6
2026-08-13
LVA
AWAY
1.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-11
LVA
AWAY
0.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
0
2026-08-09
PHO
HOME
12.1MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-2
ABOVE
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
39.9
USG%
17.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
6
2026-08-07
ATL
HOME
18.6MIN
10POINTS
4 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
1-1
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
51.2
USG%
22.4
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2026-08-05
DAL
HOME
6.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
29.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
1
2026-07-31
DAL
HOME
7.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
5.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
2
2026-07-28
CON
HOME
2.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-22
LVA
HOME
6.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
0
2026-07-20
GSV
AWAY
9.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
20.0
USG%
29.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
5
2026-07-18
GSV
AWAY
6.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
16.7MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
37.5
USG%
15.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
8.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
26.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
2
2026-07-12
SEA
HOME
9.8MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
4
2026-07-06
GSV
HOME
9.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-07-02
ATL
HOME
18.2MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
12.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
5
2026-06-19
NYL
AWAY
4.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-06-17
CON
AWAY
10.2MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
5
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
4.1MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
20.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-06-12
TOR
HOME
3.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
0
2026-06-08
IND
HOME
6.0MIN
1POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
13.3
USG%
30.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
10.6MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
8.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
5
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
20.5MIN
7POINTS
5 · 0 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
47.0
USG%
17.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
12
2026-05-29
LAS
HOME
6.4MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
21.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
5
2026-05-27
SEA
AWAY
10.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
3
2026-05-24
SEA
AWAY
22.4MIN
2POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
12.5
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-05-18
DAL
AWAY
24.7MIN
6POINTS
0 · 3 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
61.5
USG%
10.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
9
2026-05-15
IND
AWAY
25.3MIN
2POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
16.7
USG%
17.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
6
+/−
+8
PRA
6
2026-05-10
NYL
HOME
27.5MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/0
TS%
44.4
USG%
13.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
6
+/−
-8
PRA
11
2026-05-08
TOR
AWAY
18.6MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
20.0
USG%
14.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
6
+/−
+4
PRA
5
every game on file — nothing hidden