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points estimatesat home

Chance Gray in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
16 of these · baseline 24DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (3.9 pts) against in closer games (2.6), +1.3, t = 1.29, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.9
2.6
+1.3
t +1.29 · resolves ±2.0
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.1
1.0
+0.1
t +0.23 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.0
1.0
0.0
t −0.11 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
0.6
+0.2
t +0.60 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.2
0.0
t −0.36 · resolves ±0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.1
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.6
0.0
t 0.00 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.0
4.7
+1.3
t +1.08 · resolves ±2.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
5.0
3.6
+1.4
t +1.22 · resolves ±2.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
4.9
3.6
+1.3
t +1.11 · resolves ±2.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.1
2.1
0.0
t +0.08 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.2
0.0
t +0.16 · resolves ±0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 183 (this player's own top tercile)
16 of these · baseline 24NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (2.9 pts) against other games (3.2), -0.3, t = -0.26, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.9
3.2
−0.3
t −0.26 · resolves ±2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.6
1.4
−0.9
t −2.62 · resolves ±0.6
MEASURED
assists
1.1
1.0
+0.1
t +0.15 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.8
−0.1
t −0.40 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
t −2.77 · resolves ±0.2
MEASURED
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.1
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.4
0.8
−0.4
t −1.65 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
4.6
5.6
−1.1
t −0.81 · resolves ±2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.5
4.6
−1.1
t −0.95 · resolves ±2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.0
4.2
−0.2
t −0.18 · resolves ±2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.6
2.4
−0.8
t −1.45 · resolves ±1.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
t −1.71 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (2.9 pts) against other games (3.2), -0.4, t = -0.42, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.9
3.2
−0.4
t −0.42 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.4
0.9
+0.5
t +1.70 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.8
1.2
−0.4
t −1.08 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.6
0.7
−0.1
t −0.30 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.1
+0.1
t +0.76 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.0
0.0
t −1.00 · resolves ±0.1
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.6
0.0
t +0.09 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.1
5.3
−0.2
t −0.18 · resolves ±2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.3
4.1
+0.2
t +0.17 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.6
4.4
−0.7
t −0.73 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.2
2.0
+0.2
t +0.37 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.2
+0.1
t +0.45 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.6
2026-09-24
GSV
HOME
9.4MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
19.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
5
2026-09-22
LVA
AWAY
15.2MIN
1POINTS
0 · 3 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
14.5
USG%
10.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
4
2026-09-20
POR
HOME
17.5MIN
11POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
3-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
93.5
USG%
17.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
12
2026-08-30
SEA
AWAY
17.0MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
7.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
7
2026-08-28
WAS
HOME
10.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
2
2026-08-24
ATL
HOME
21.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-08-22
CON
HOME
12.2MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
64.4
USG%
18.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
8
2026-08-20
ATL
HOME
13.4MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
12.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
8
2026-08-18
CON
AWAY
20.1MIN
4POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
13.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
9
2026-08-15
WAS
AWAY
6.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-08-13
NYL
AWAY
12.2MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-13
PRA
8
2026-08-11
PHO
HOME
7.9MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
69.4
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-08-09
GSV
HOME
10.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
3
2026-08-06
MIN
AWAY
10.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
34.7
USG%
17.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+8
PRA
6
2026-08-05
CHI
AWAY
12.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 4 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
5
2026-08-02
POR
AWAY
14.0MIN
6POINTS
0 · 3 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
9
2026-07-28
NYL
HOME
14.0MIN
5POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-21
PRA
7
2026-07-22
PHO
HOME
11.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
1-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
41.0
USG%
27.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
5
2026-07-19
DAL
AWAY
10.2MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
150.0
USG%
13.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-16
PRA
7
2026-07-17
CHI
AWAY
14.7MIN
3POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
5
2026-07-15
MIN
AWAY
2.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
0
2026-07-13
ATL
AWAY
3.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-10
CHI
HOME
3.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-07-06
SEA
HOME
13.9MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
75.0
USG%
6.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
6
2026-06-27
IND
AWAY
11.4MIN
6POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
61.5
USG%
18.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
10
2026-06-25
TOR
AWAY
13.9MIN
7POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
71.7
USG%
14.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
13
2026-06-17
MIN
HOME
13.4MIN
8POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
103.1
USG%
19.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
12
2026-06-15
GSV
AWAY
8.4MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
22.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
2
2026-06-13
PHO
AWAY
7.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
0
2026-06-10
SEA
AWAY
7.1MIN
3POINTS
3 · 2 · 0-3
ABOVE
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
34.7
USG%
31.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
8
2026-06-07
POR
HOME
15.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
34.7
USG%
13.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
3
2026-06-05
DAL
HOME
5.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-06-02
LVA
HOME
20.9MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.8
USG%
9.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
6
2026-05-30
CON
AWAY
12.8MIN
6POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
13.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
9
2026-05-29
WAS
AWAY
13.0MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
13.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-05-21
PHO
AWAY
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-05-17
TOR
HOME
9.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
22.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
5
2026-05-15
TOR
HOME
10.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
1
2026-05-13
IND
HOME
15.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
5.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-05-10
LVA
HOME
8.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
2
every game on file — nothing hidden