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Charlisse Leger-Walker in blowouts

43 of 43 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
21 of these · baseline 22NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (7.5 pts) against in closer games (7.1), +0.4, t = 0.28, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.5
7.1
+0.4
t +0.28 · resolves ±2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.5
2.6
−0.2
t −0.26 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.7
3.7
−0.1
t −0.10 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.1
0.9
+0.3
t +0.76 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.7
1.0
−0.3
t −1.08 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.3
0.0
t −0.21 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.0
1.8
+0.1
t +0.29 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
13.7
13.5
+0.2
t +0.09 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.0
9.8
+0.2
t +0.14 · resolves ±3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
11.2
10.9
+0.3
t +0.22 · resolves ±2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.1
6.4
−0.2
t −0.21 · resolves ±2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.9
1.2
−0.3
t −0.99 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 171 (this player's own top tercile)
15 of these · baseline 28DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (6.5 pts) against other games (7.8), -1.3, t = -1.08, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.5
7.8
−1.3
t −1.08 · resolves ±2.4
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.5
2.6
0.0
t −0.07 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
4.1
3.5
+0.7
t +0.94 · resolves ±1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
1.1
−0.3
t −0.88 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.9
−0.3
t −1.20 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
t −0.49 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.1
1.8
+0.3
t +0.53 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
13.1
13.8
−0.7
t −0.41 · resolves ±3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.0
10.4
−1.4
t −0.98 · resolves ±2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
10.6
11.3
−0.7
t −0.48 · resolves ±2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.7
6.0
+0.6
t +0.54 · resolves ±2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
1.2
−0.4
t −1.28 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)
16 of these · baseline 27DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (8.4 pts) against other games (6.7), +1.8, t = 1.21, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.4
6.7
+1.8
t +1.21 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
3.2
2.2
+1.0
t +1.40 · resolves ±1.4
DIRECTIONAL
assists
3.9
3.6
+0.3
t +0.52 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.1
0.9
+0.2
t +0.53 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.9
0.7
+0.2
t +0.71 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
t −0.05 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.9
1.9
+0.1
t +0.20 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
15.5
12.4
+3.1
t +1.61 · resolves ±3.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
11.6
8.9
+2.8
t +1.59 · resolves ±3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
12.3
10.3
+2.1
t +1.34 · resolves ±3.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
7.1
5.8
+1.3
t +1.19 · resolves ±2.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
1.2
1.0
+0.2
t +0.56 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 43 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 7.1
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
13.8MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-4
BELOW
FG
3-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
78.8
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
10
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
29.7MIN
7POINTS
8 · 3 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/6
TS%
43.8
USG%
15.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-16
PRA
18
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
29.9MIN
10POINTS
5 · 8 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
2-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
56.3
USG%
18.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
23
2026-09-17
ATL
AWAY
23.5MIN
4POINTS
1 · 3 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
20.2
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-30
PRA
8
2026-08-30
DAL
AWAY
28.9MIN
17POINTS
0 · 5 · 6-14
ABOVE
FG
6-14
3PT
5-9
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
60.7
USG%
23.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-19
PRA
22
2026-08-28
IND
AWAY
24.4MIN
8POINTS
4 · 5 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
58.1
USG%
23.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
7
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
17
2026-08-26
GSV
HOME
16.5MIN
17POINTS
3 · 4 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
3-4
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
103.7
USG%
24.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
24
2026-08-25
CHI
HOME
29.5MIN
4POINTS
5 · 7 · 1-9
BELOW
FG
1-9
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
20.2
USG%
15.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
16
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
22.3MIN
5POINTS
4 · 4 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
31.3
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
13
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
28.3MIN
10POINTS
3 · 4 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
71.4
USG%
11.0
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-26
PRA
17
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
30.6MIN
7POINTS
8 · 6 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
65.8
USG%
10.3
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
21
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
31.8MIN
14POINTS
5 · 4 · 5-14
ABOVE
FG
5-14
3PT
4-9
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
24.7
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
23
2026-08-13
ATL
HOME
17.7MIN
8POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
66.7
USG%
17.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-23
PRA
9
2026-08-07
PHO
HOME
19.5MIN
6POINTS
1 · 5 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
12
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
25.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
2
2026-07-30
CHI
AWAY
30.0MIN
10POINTS
1 · 2 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
45.5
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
13
2026-07-28
WAS
AWAY
23.0MIN
2POINTS
3 · 8 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
25.8
USG%
12.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-8
PRA
13
2026-07-22
IND
AWAY
27.4MIN
1POINTS
2 · 4 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
14.5
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-29
PRA
7
2026-07-19
PHO
AWAY
28.6MIN
5POINTS
3 · 5 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
29.6
USG%
19.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
13
2026-07-17
PHO
AWAY
29.1MIN
4POINTS
4 · 7 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
25.0
USG%
15.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2026-07-14
POR
HOME
33.5MIN
4POINTS
4 · 7 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
25.0
USG%
13.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
15
2026-07-10
GSV
HOME
24.9MIN
12POINTS
1 · 1 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
1-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
52.4
USG%
27.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
14
2026-07-08
MIN
HOME
31.2MIN
7POINTS
4 · 3 · 3-11
BELOW
FG
3-11
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
31.8
USG%
20.2
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
14
2026-07-06
MIN
AWAY
27.8MIN
6POINTS
4 · 5 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
37.5
USG%
15.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
15
2026-07-02
DAL
HOME
29.6MIN
14POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
1-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
68.6
USG%
14.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
17
2026-06-26
WAS
HOME
31.1MIN
10POINTS
3 · 5 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
55.6
USG%
14.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+15
PRA
18
2026-06-22
CHI
HOME
29.0MIN
13POINTS
7 · 5 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/7
TS%
50.9
USG%
23.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+19
PRA
25
2026-06-19
TOR
HOME
18.3MIN
7POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
73.5
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
12
2026-06-17
WAS
HOME
19.1MIN
10POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
79.1
USG%
15.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
16
2026-06-13
IND
HOME
13.7MIN
3POINTS
0 · 4 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
13.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-06-10
TOR
AWAY
18.3MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
6
2026-06-08
NYL
HOME
14.5MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
66.7
USG%
15.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
8
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
8.0MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
21.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+8
PRA
5
2026-06-02
ATL
AWAY
16.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 3 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
3
2026-05-30
LAS
HOME
13.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 3 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
34.7
USG%
18.4
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
6
2026-05-27
POR
AWAY
27.3MIN
11POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-3
FT
5-9
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.2
USG%
21.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-14
PRA
16
2026-05-25
GSV
AWAY
18.6MIN
9POINTS
2 · 2 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
76.5
USG%
19.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-16
PRA
13
2026-05-22
SEA
AWAY
29.8MIN
5POINTS
3 · 5 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
27.8
USG%
15.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
13
2026-05-20
SEA
AWAY
28.2MIN
16POINTS
2 · 3 · 6-15
ABOVE
FG
6-15
3PT
1-6
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
49.0
USG%
27.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
21
2026-05-18
POR
AWAY
23.2MIN
10POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
3-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
63.5
USG%
23.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
13
2026-05-15
LVA
HOME
18.4MIN
10POINTS
1 · 4 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
74.0
USG%
14.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
15
2026-05-13
LVA
HOME
16.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
6
2026-05-10
SEA
HOME
20.4MIN
6POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
43.6
USG%
15.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-11
PRA
10
every game on file — nothing hidden