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Chloe Bibby in blowouts

24 of 24 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

THU · OCT 1
NYL @ MIN7:00 PM ETbench · 2 projected minutes
OutAnastasiia Olairi KosuRight Foot· report Tue Sep 29
GAMES SHE PLAYED 10+ MIN · 20264 games · 18.5 min · 9.3 points

Tonight's projection is 2 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

WITHOUT KOSU7 games · 12.9 min · 6.0 pointswith her (3 games): 6.4 min · 2.3 pointswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
13 of these · baseline 11 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.8 pts) against in closer games (4.9), -0.1, t = -0.07, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.8
4.9
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.3
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.3
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.8
6.9
−0.1
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.3
6.2
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.3
5.6
−0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.1
2.0
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.3
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.5
3.6
+0.8
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.6
1.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.2
0.6
+0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
3.5
2.5
+1.1
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 178 (this player's own top tercile)
8 of these · baseline 16 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.0 pts) against other games (5.3), -1.3, t = -0.52, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
5.3
−1.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.5
1.9
−1.4
gap is 3.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
assists
0.9
0.5
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
1.4
−0.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.4
7.6
−2.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.5
7.1
−2.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
4.9
5.8
−0.9
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.4
2.4
−1.0
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.6
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
1.6
−1.1
gap is 3.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
field goal attempts
3.6
4.3
−0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.3
1.8
−0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.9
0.3
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.9
1.0
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.6
3.3
−0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 161 (this player's own bottom tercile)
9 of these · baseline 15 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.0 pts) against other games (5.3), -1.3, t = -0.64, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
5.3
−1.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
1.0
+1.1
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
assists
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.1
1.2
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
6.6
7.1
−0.5
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.1
6.3
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.4
6.1
−1.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.6
1.7
+0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.4
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.8
0.9
+0.9
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
field goal attempts
3.4
4.5
−1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
0.7
−0.7
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
free throws made
0.0
0.7
−0.7
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.2
0.8
+0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.4
3.4
−1.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 24 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.9
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
NYL
HOME
2.5MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
62.5
USG%
75.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
5
2026-09-24
IND
HOME
10.9MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
4
2026-09-22
IND
AWAY
25.6MIN
15POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-10
ABOVE
FG
5-10
3PT
5-9
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
18.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
18
2026-08-30
ATL
AWAY
6.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-08-24
GSV
HOME
7.4MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
83.3
USG%
32.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
5
2026-08-21
WAS
AWAY
5.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
28.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-07-30
CON
HOME
18.2MIN
8POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
57.1
USG%
16.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
11
2026-07-19
ATL
AWAY
4.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
0
2026-07-17
LAS
HOME
8.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-15
SEA
HOME
19.4MIN
14POINTS
1 · 4 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
2-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
58.9
USG%
25.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+14
PRA
19
2025-08-17
CON
AWAY
7.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2025-08-12
DAL
HOME
12.0MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
3-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
110.0
USG%
30.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-15
PRA
13
2025-08-09
CHI
HOME
21.1MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+9
PRA
4
2025-08-07
PHO
AWAY
9.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
1
2025-08-05
LAS
AWAY
2.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
0
2025-08-03
SEA
AWAY
6.1MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2025-08-01
DAL
AWAY
5.5MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
22.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
7
2025-07-30
PHO
HOME
13.1MIN
10POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
80.6
USG%
26.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+19
PRA
11
2025-07-27
CHI
AWAY
10.8MIN
8POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
2-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
68.0
USG%
24.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
10
2025-06-29
SEA
HOME
4.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2025-06-27
CHI
HOME
13.9MIN
6POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
75.0
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
10
2025-06-25
NYL
HOME
3.8MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
24.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
5
2025-06-22
CON
HOME
19.6MIN
11POINTS
4 · 2 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
3-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
22.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
17
2025-06-19
IND
HOME
23.9MIN
12POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
2-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
60.7
USG%
18.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+25
PRA
16
every game on file — nothing hidden