Flau'jae Johnson in blowouts

42 of 42 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

26 of these · baseline 16MEASURED

in blowouts (17.1 pts) against in closer games (11.3), +5.8, t = 2.77, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

17.1

11.3

+5.8

t +2.77 · resolves ±4.1

MEASURED

rebounds

4.8

0.0

t −0.01 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

2.7

3.3

−0.6

t −0.87 · resolves ±1.4

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

1.7

0.9

+0.8

t +1.80 · resolves ±0.9

DIRECTIONAL

steals

1.3

1.6

−0.3

t −0.79 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.8

0.5

+0.3

t +1.21 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

2.7

2.4

+0.3

t +0.54 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

24.6

19.4

+5.2

t +2.01 · resolves ±5.0

MEASURED

pts+reb

21.9

16.1

+5.8

t +2.46 · resolves ±4.6

MEASURED

pts+ast

19.8

14.6

+5.2

t +2.29 · resolves ±4.4

MEASURED

reb+ast

7.5

8.1

−0.6

t −0.49 · resolves ±2.5

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

2.1

0.0

t +0.03 · resolves ±0.9

NOT MEASURABLE

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)

14 of these · baseline 28DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (17.6 pts) against other games (13.5), +4.1, t = 1.79, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.5).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

17.6

13.5

+4.1

t +1.79 · resolves ±4.5

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

4.5

5.0

−0.5

t −0.49 · resolves ±1.9

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

3.3

2.8

+0.5

t +0.70 · resolves ±1.5

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

1.5

1.4

+0.1

t +0.21 · resolves ±1.0

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

1.4

+0.1

t +0.19 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.5

0.8

−0.3

t −1.19 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

2.6

0.0

t +0.06 · resolves ±1.2

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

25.4

21.3

+4.2

t +1.47 · resolves ±5.6

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

22.1

18.5

+3.6

t +1.32 · resolves ±5.4

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

20.9

16.3

+4.6

t +1.99 · resolves ±4.6

MEASURED

reb+ast

7.8

7.7

+0.1

t +0.05 · resolves ±2.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.9

2.1

−0.2

t −0.47 · resolves ±0.9

NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)

15 of these · baseline 27MEASURED

low-scoring games (11.7 pts) against other games (16.7), -4.9, t = -2.31, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

11.7

16.7

−4.9

t −2.31 · resolves ±4.2

MEASURED

rebounds

5.3

4.5

+0.8

t +1.05 · resolves ±1.5

DIRECTIONAL

assists

2.7

3.0

−0.3

t −0.50 · resolves ±1.2

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

1.5

1.4

+0.1

t +0.12 · resolves ±1.0

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

1.1

1.5

−0.4

t −1.18 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.7

+0.1

t +0.22 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

3.2

2.3

+0.9

t +1.64 · resolves ±1.1

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

19.8

24.2

−4.4

t −1.74 · resolves ±5.0

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

17.1

21.2

−4.1

t −1.69 · resolves ±4.8

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

14.5

19.7

−5.2

t −2.35 · resolves ±4.4

MEASURED

reb+ast

8.1

7.6

+0.5

t +0.49 · resolves ±2.0

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.9

2.2

−0.3

t −0.87 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

Game log

all 42 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 11.3

2026-09-23

DAL

HOME

35.0MIN

21POINTS

6 · 4 · 8-18

ABOVE

FG: 8-18
3PT: 0-5
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 50.9
USG%: 32.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 31

2026-09-20

LVA

AWAY

32.1MIN

29POINTS

6 · 6 · 10-21

ABOVE

FG: 10-21
3PT: 5-8
FT: 4-7
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 60.2
USG%: 33.4
STL: 4
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -3
PRA: 41

2026-09-19

GSV

AWAY

33.7MIN

17POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-18

ABOVE

FG: 6-18
3PT: 3-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 33.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 4
+/−: +2
PRA: 24

2026-09-17

LVA

HOME

32.3MIN

25POINTS

2 · 1 · 9-21

ABOVE

FG: 9-21
3PT: 3-11
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 52.9
USG%: 34.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -32
PRA: 28

2026-08-30

LAS

HOME

28.7MIN

19POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-18

ABOVE

FG: 7-18
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 48.1
USG%: 32.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 5
+/−: -24
PRA: 24

2026-08-26

TOR

HOME

26.2MIN

20POINTS

3 · 2 · 9-15

ABOVE

FG: 9-15
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 63.0
USG%: 28.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -1
PRA: 25

2026-08-23

DAL

AWAY

26.3MIN

23POINTS

6 · 2 · 9-19

ABOVE

FG: 9-19
3PT: 5-10
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 60.5
USG%: 36.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 31

2026-08-16

CHI

HOME

30.2MIN

5POINTS

4 · 6 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 35.7
USG%: 13.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 15

2026-08-08

POR

AWAY

24.7MIN

8POINTS

4 · 1 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 36.8
USG%: 23.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -23
PRA: 13

2026-08-05

NYL

AWAY

27.2MIN

11POINTS

4 · 3 · 5-12

BELOW

FG: 5-12
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 45.8
USG%: 20.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -8
PRA: 18

2026-08-03

NYL

AWAY

30.1MIN

25POINTS

3 · 3 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 2-6
FT: 7-9
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 65.9
USG%: 30.7
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -9
PRA: 31

2026-07-31

ATL

AWAY

25.8MIN

9POINTS

0 · 3 · 2-11

BELOW

FG: 2-11
3PT: 0-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 33.0
USG%: 32.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 7
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 12

2026-07-28

IND

HOME

24.3MIN

16POINTS

3 · 2 · 4-15

ABOVE

FG: 4-15
3PT: 0-6
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 42.2
USG%: 32.9
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 6
+/−: -1
PRA: 21

2026-07-22

MIN

HOME

28.6MIN

16POINTS

6 · 4 · 7-17

ABOVE

FG: 7-17
3PT: 0-6
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 43.7
USG%: 34.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 6
PF: 2
+/−: -13
PRA: 26

2026-07-20

MIN

HOME

28.5MIN

26POINTS

1 · 1 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 5-8
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 89.5
USG%: 27.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 28

2026-07-17

IND

AWAY

31.2MIN

16POINTS

6 · 6 · 7-16

ABOVE

FG: 7-16
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 47.4
USG%: 24.0
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 28

2026-07-15

CHI

AWAY

31.1MIN

25POINTS

6 · 4 · 11-17

ABOVE

FG: 11-17
3PT: 1-5
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 68.2
USG%: 26.4
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -3
PRA: 35

2026-07-12

WAS

AWAY

30.9MIN

9POINTS

7 · 3 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 0-2
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 38.7
USG%: 18.2
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 19

2026-07-09

ATL

AWAY

29.3MIN

14POINTS

2 · 5 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 0-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 49.3
USG%: 24.6
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 21

2026-07-06

LAS

AWAY

27.4MIN

23POINTS

5 · 3 · 9-19

ABOVE

FG: 9-19
3PT: 3-9
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 57.8
USG%: 38.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +15
PRA: 31

2026-07-04

POR

HOME

30.6MIN

1POINTS

8 · 3 · 0-5

BELOW

FG: 0-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 8.5
USG%: 12.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 12

2026-07-02

PHO

AWAY

29.3MIN

11POINTS

3 · 3 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 42.7
USG%: 23.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 17

2026-06-27

ATL

HOME

32.9MIN

24POINTS

11 · 4 · 9-12

ABOVE

FG: 9-12
3PT: 2-3
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 2/9
TS%: 84.5
USG%: 24.9
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +12
PRA: 39

2026-06-25

NYL

HOME

32.7MIN

28POINTS

9 · 2 · 11-23

ABOVE

FG: 11-23
3PT: 4-10
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 56.5
USG%: 33.9
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +13
PRA: 39

2026-06-22

DAL

HOME

39.6MIN

11POINTS

5 · 9 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 53.3
USG%: 14.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 25

2026-06-20

PHO

AWAY

33.7MIN

13POINTS

2 · 0 · 6-17

ABOVE

FG: 6-17
3PT: 1-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 38.2
USG%: 25.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -10
PRA: 15

2026-06-17

POR

AWAY

22.3MIN

8POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 18.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 6
+/−: +8
PRA: 11

2026-06-12

GSV

HOME

28.9MIN

8POINTS

5 · 1 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 19.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +8
PRA: 14

2026-06-10

LAS

HOME

30.2MIN

14POINTS

12 · 6 · 4-11

ABOVE

FG: 4-11
3PT: 1-4
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/10
TS%: 51.3
USG%: 21.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 32

2026-06-08

LVA

AWAY

24.0MIN

13POINTS

2 · 7 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 18.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -1
PRA: 22

2026-06-06

MIN

AWAY

26.1MIN

10POINTS

6 · 2 · 4-15

BELOW

FG: 4-15
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 30.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 18

2026-06-03

PHO

HOME

28.9MIN

9POINTS

4 · 5 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 37.9
USG%: 24.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 18

2026-06-01

DAL

AWAY

25.2MIN

16POINTS

10 · 1 · 4-12

ABOVE

FG: 4-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 7-10
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 48.8
USG%: 39.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 6
+/−: -22
PRA: 27

2026-05-30

TOR

AWAY

24.1MIN

7POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 38.9
USG%: 20.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -15
PRA: 13

2026-05-27

WAS

HOME

28.8MIN

8POINTS

2 · 2 · 3-13

BELOW

FG: 3-13
3PT: 0-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 28.8
USG%: 23.4
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 12

2026-05-24

WAS

HOME

24.5MIN

17POINTS

6 · 1 · 4-14

ABOVE

FG: 4-14
3PT: 2-7
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 49.8
USG%: 35.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +4
PRA: 24

2026-05-22

CON

HOME

31.0MIN

17POINTS

7 · 5 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 70.8
USG%: 26.6
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 29

2026-05-20

CON

HOME

15.8MIN

5POINTS

3 · 0 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 36.3
USG%: 19.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: 0
PRA: 8

2026-05-17

IND

AWAY

28.3MIN

14POINTS

6 · 0 · 3-14

ABOVE

FG: 3-14
3PT: 0-4
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 39.0
USG%: 31.1
STL: 1
BLK: 4
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 20

2026-05-13

TOR

AWAY

28.7MIN

7POINTS

6 · 2 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 19.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -13
PRA: 15

2026-05-10

CON

AWAY

29.7MIN

16POINTS

6 · 1 · 3-10

ABOVE

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 55.6
USG%: 23.2
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 23

2026-05-08

GSV

HOME

25.7MIN

12POINTS

2 · 2 · 3-12

ABOVE

FG: 3-12
3PT: 3-7
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 26.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -6
PRA: 16

every game on file — nothing hidden